- The following three weeks are crucial to each Republicans and Democrats standing for election.
- As Americans proceed to place the economy and inflation at the highest of their priority lists, the momentum has swung back to Republicans, who rank higher with voters on these issues.
- The House of Representatives is far more Trump-centric than the Senate.
- Realistically, Congress is finished passing major climate laws for no less than the subsequent two years—probably 4 or more, depending on the final result of the 2022 and 2024 elections. Essentially the most that will be hoped for are refinements to the already passed laws based on experience.
Part 1 of the series, Today’s Politics Are Tomorrow’s Climate Policies, focused on the politics of the 2022 midterm elections surrounding the US Senate. Control of the Senate remains to be something of a 50/50 proposition, although in recent weeks there’s been a shift of momentum towards the Republicans.
Regardless of the final result of the Senate elections, the upper chamber might be a moderating influence on a Republican controlled House of Representatives. More Trump-centric than the Senate, the House under the leadership of Kevin McCarthy might be ground-zero within the continuing culture wars.
Throughout the 2022 election cycle, it’s been predicted that the US House of Representatives would flip from Democratic to Republican. For that to occur, Republicans will need to realize a net of just five seats
Although Republican control of the peoples’ House remains to be anticipated, the margin of victory has been coming down since mid-summer, when a blowout was predicted. The catalyst for the change was the US Supreme Court’s (SCOTUS) decision in Dobbs v. Jackson that overturned a girl’s constitutional right to an abortion, as established by Roe v. Wade.
There’s growing evidence that the abortion issue isn’t what most voters have at the highest of their priority lists. The highest spots are, unsurprisingly, the economy and inflation. President Biden has called the economy “strong as hell.” While eating an ice cream cone, Biden expressed what he’s apprehensive about–
“I’m not concerned concerning the strength of the dollar; I’m concerned concerning the remainder of the world. Does that make sense?”
As I’ll discuss further in a moment, those words may come back to haunt Biden once the gavel comes right down to call the 118th Congress into session.
FiveThirtyEight predicts the possibilities of the Republicans capturing the House are 72 out of 100. Adding fuel to the prediction is a recent Latest York Times/Siena College poll that found 49 percent of likely voters in congressional races were planning to solid their ballots for Republicans. Support for Democrats got here in at 45 percent. It marks a big change from the month before.
The Democrats held a one-point advantage in September’s generic poll over the GOP. Based on Larry Sabado on the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, when Republicans lead on the generic ballot, they almost all the time win control of the peoples’ House. The query is whether or not such history will repeat itself in 2022.
A Republican House majority isn’t simply about gross numbers. Additionally it is about individual political philosophies and loyalties. In an age of very slim majorities, a comparatively small group of members can have an outsized impact on what does and doesn’t get passed into law.
A Republican group that has enjoyed such a position is the House Freedom Caucus (HFC). The Caucus has had a stranglehold on the lower chamber for years.
HFC doesn’t list its membership, even though it is fair to say that the group hasn’t exceeded 70 members at its acme. Regardless of the number, the HFC has consistently punched well above its weight.
The group has chased two former House speakers—John Boehner and Paul Ryan—out of Congress. Each men are establishment Republicans within the mold of Ronald Reagan. Neither is a supporter of former president Trump.
Nonetheless, who’s a supporter of the ultra-conservative agenda, is the present House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). He served as House Majority Leader[i] under each Boehner and Ryan. He’s currently the House Minority Leader and is in the very best position to develop into Speaker of the House.
McCarthy has spent the last 5 or 6 years attempting to persuade Donald Trump of his loyalty and skill to perform because the ex-president’s avenging angel. Unlike Senate Minority McConnell, the Californian has shown what he stands for and the agenda he intends to advertise within the 118th Congress.
“I believe I can win [the speakership] with any seat majority.”
At the tip of September, McCarthy released his Commitment to America. It’s a play on Newt Gingrich’s Contract to America. (See sidebar[ii])
The Commitment speaks in generalities combining traditional Republican themes, e.g., increasing domestic oil and gas production, with more extreme positions. Under the heading, A Government That’s Accountable, is the commitment of House Republicans to uphold free speech and protect the lives of unborn children and their moms.
Based on things he’s said before, the meaning of those words come to life. McCarthy has shown support for a national ban on abortion at 15 weeks. Abortion isn’t all that’s included under the heading Preserve Our Constitutional Freedoms.
McCarthy’s promise to uphold free speech means there must be no restrictions placed on the previous president’s use of Twitter and other social media web sites. True or not, the Minority Leader sees no reason to cancel Trump—or, for that matter, another Republican irrespective of how outlandish or harmful an announcement could also be. One wonders whether McCarthy thinks it’s alright to yell “fire” in a crowded theater.
The Minority Leader showed what’s likely in store for members of his caucus who fail to follow the Trump-party line. Consider the fate of the ten Republicans who voted to question Trump after the January sixth rebel.
Of the ten, only two, Dan Newhouse (R-CA) and David Valadao (R-WA), have a probability to be re-elected. 4 selected to retire, and 4 lost to largely Trump-backed challengers.
A special place in Republican hell was reserved for Liz Cheney (R-WY). Immediately after the impeachment vote, Cheney was stripped of her leadership position.
Cheney was replaced by Elise Stefanik (R-NY)—who has now predicted a Republican pickup of 35 House seats. Stefanik stands for example of the willingness of some Republicans to place their loyalty to Trump above all.
The Latest York representative went from being a moderate to a Trumpster overnight. Peter Wehner of the faith-based Trinity Forum writes:
There was a time in 2016 when Elise Stefanik, now the third-ranking Republican within the House, was so disgusted by Donald Trump she would barely mention his name. Today he proudly refers to her as ‘certainly one of my killers’.”
As Chair of the House Republican Caucus, Stefanik wields significant power. She has performed so well—in actual fact—that she’s being talked about as a possible vice-presidential candidate should Trump run again.
Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one other fallen RINO[iii] and certainly one of the 2 Republicans on the House January sixth Committee, predicts that a Republican House majority would demand an impeachment vote on President Biden weekly. Although a bit extreme, what is probably going is McCarthy’s appointing a seemingly limitless train of oversight committees to analyze the whole lot and anything—including on the President’s son Hunter Biden.
Emblematic of McCarthy’s willingness to court Trump’s favor is his embrace of Representatives Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). Each are off the far-right scale and have been frequent and distinguished Mar-a-Lago visitors.
Following the assault on the Capitol, Gaetz blamed Democratic rhetoric and anti-fascists pretending to be Trump supporters.
“The individuals who breached the Capitol today weren’t Trump supporters. They were masquerading as Trump supporters. And in actual fact, they were members of the violent terrorist group, Antifa.”
Greene has been stripped of her committee assignments for things she’s said—particularly as a primetime speaker at a white supremacist meeting.
Not for the primary time, Greene has warned McCarthy that he’s no shoo-in for House Speaker. In a recent interview with the Latest York Times, Greene was quoted as saying:
“I believe that to be the very best speaker of the House and to please the bottom, he’s going to provide me a variety of power and a variety of leeway,”
Greene claimed she wasn’t saying that as a threat. It was, in her terms–just the “reality of all of it.”
There are three likely congressional outcomes within the 2022 midterm election cycle.
- Republicans take each the House and Senate
- Democrats maintain a narrow Senate majority while Republicans capture the House
- Democrats keep their majorities in each the House and Senate.
Irrespective of which of those involves pass, the historic Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure framework are roughly secure within the halls of the subsequent Congress—although they might not be within the passageways of the Supreme Court.
The true threats to the environment over the subsequent two years will are available in the shape of Republican pressure on the White House to expand significantly domestic oil and gas production. Moves might be pitched as a solution to offset the high cost of gasoline and as a solution to help western allies of their efforts to wean themselves off of Russian resources.
A Republican House majority while Biden is within the White House—irrespective of the final result of the Senate elections—guarantees gridlock and brinksmanship. The query in a Republican Home is how much of the bulk’s time might be spent on payback investigations versus the passage of substantive laws.
Trump will proceed to discuss with the Green Latest Deal as a shorthand for SOCIALISM. The more often he mentions it, the less likely it is going to be that climate policy is anything greater than a Republican whipping post. Although such hyperpartisanship will please Trump, it risks losing younger Republican voters in future elections.
Even with Republican victories within the House and Senate, Trump Republicans might be hard-pressed to place their substantive agenda—whatever it may be—into play as anything apart from messaging. So long as McConnell continues to be at the highest of the Senate Republican heap and there are Democrats able to filibuster, little or no of a Trump-approved platform will ever find its way onto the chamber’s floor for a vote.
Under any scenario by which Republicans have majority status, efforts by Democrats to pass substantive climate laws are also prone to find yourself as messaging exercises. It’s not hard to assume that subject material committee chairs under a McCarthy regime won’t be encouraged to carry hearings that query the reliability of scientific data and the conclusions drawn from it.
Under any of the three scenarios, Biden will proceed to exercise his executive powers to combat Earth’s warming and expedite the nation’s transition to a low-carbon economy. Whether those actions have any endurance beyond Biden’s first term will rely on the 2024 presidential elections.
Realistically speaking, lasting progress on climate matters on the federal level is feasible only under the third scenario—the Democrats maintaining control of Congress. There are caveats to this conclusion to think about.
Senator Manchin (D-WV) has been the goat and champion of climate policy over the past two years. Should the Democrat’s Senate majority proceed to be contingent on all 50 Democrats voting together, any recent laws is unlikely to be enacted—no less than until he gets his way on streamlining the permitting of fossil fuel and energy projects.
The victim most threatened in the approaching elections is bipartisanship. Even when Trump announced he wasn’t running again, his successor would attempt to out-trump Trump to capture his base.
The 2022 midterm elections might be a time of learning. All eyes might be on the win rate of Trump-endorsed candidates. Will character and truth be valued above party loyalty? Are Republicans any more able to corralling inflation and restarting the economy once the Fed is thru tightening?
The 118th Senate—whether under Democratic or Republican control—will function a tempering agent to a Trump-centric House. For so long as he’s the combo, the previous president will keep pressure on McCarthy through messages on his Twitter alternative—Truth Social—and by triggering supporters like Representatives Greene and Gaetz.
It’s fortunate for the nation’s environment that Congress passed the infrastructure and jobs act, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the CHIPS and Science Act before the elections. It’s unlikely such seminal laws could ever make it through a Republican-controlled House.
Politics on the state and native levels will ultimately determine how and even when the IRA, IIJA and CHIPS might be implemented. It’s the main focus of Part 3 within the series Today’s Politics Are Tomorrow’s Climate Policies.
***********
[i] The position of House Majority Leader is number 2 on the leadership chain.
[ii] Note that the image is simply a partial representation of the Commitment.
[iii] Republican in Name Only
Teaser photo credit: By Dbenbenn, Zscout370, Jacobolus, Indolences, Technion. – SVG implementation of U. S. Code: Title 4, Chapter 1, Section 1 [1] (the US Federal "Flag Law")., Public Domain, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=33285428