The Atlantic hurricane season has been in slumber for nearly a month, but don’t expect it to stay quiet for an excessive amount of longer since the peak of hurricane season is on the way in which.
Tropical Storm Colin, which briefly impacted the coastal Carolinas with heavy rain and gusty winds on July 2 and three, was the last system to roam the Atlantic Basin.
Nevertheless, it’s commonplace for a lull in activity within the tropics in June or July before the season begins to ramp up in August.
In line with the National Hurricane Center, a median June within the Atlantic features one named storm each one to 2 years, while July averages one named storm every year.
But as you’ll be able to see within the graph below, roughly 90% of a median Atlantic hurricane season continues to be remaining as we head into August.
The period from August through early October tends to supply essentially the most hurricanes and tropical storms in a median 12 months. September is the only most lively month of the Atlantic hurricane season, with Sept. 10 marking the official seasonal peak.
Consequently, this same period is usually when the strongest, most impactful hurricanes roam the Atlantic Basin.
Just in the last five years — from 2017 through 2021 — the US was struck by 4 hurricanes in August, five in September and 4 in October. That included last 12 months’s Hurricane Ida, which devastated parts of southeastern Louisiana after making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 29.
The storm produced a robust 14-foot storm surge along the Louisiana coastline and dumped torrential rainfall across much of the northern Gulf Coast, but its impacts didn’t stop there. The storm’s effects were also felt up the complete Eastern Seaboard, where tornadoes and flooding were reported as far north as Recent England.
Hurricane Ida was blamed for the deaths of greater than 100 people, and its estimated damages topped $75 billion from the Caribbean to Recent England. The destruction was enough to propel the storm to the fifth-costliest hurricane in US history, rating just behind Katrina, Harvey, Maria and Sandy, respectively.
The World Meteorological Organization voted in April 2022 to retire the name “Ida” from future use within the Atlantic Basin.
Why does the Atlantic turn more lively in August?
In comparison with June and July, the tropics turn way more lively starting in August because nearly the complete Atlantic Basin becomes available for tropical development.
The so-called Predominant Development Region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, which is usually not conducive for storms early within the season due to a frequent influx of Saharan dust and dry air into the region, turns more favorable for development because the dusty, dry air becomes less persistent.
Tropical waves also emerge off western Africa more ceaselessly by August, and if conditions are favorable, they are sometimes seeds for tropical development within the Predominant Development Region in the course of the peak of hurricane season.
If a tropical wave spawns a tropical storm or hurricane within the Predominant Development Region, it often moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean toward the Lesser Antilles. A few of these storms make the three,500-mile journey from the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean islands or the US coastline, while others curve northwestward toward Bermuda or move harmlessly into the open ocean.
Hurricanes that develop on this area to the west of Africa are called Cabo Verde hurricanes, named after the island nation a couple of hundred miles west of continental Africa. Cabo Verde hurricanes are quite common in September.
The Gulf of Mexico is one other hotspot for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the course of the peak of the season because water temperatures within the Gulf reach the very best levels of the 12 months, providing more energy for tropical cyclones to grow and intensify.
Outlook for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Including the three storms which have already formed this season, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are predicting 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
Colorado State University’s latest outlook predicts that 17 additional named storms will form this season for a complete of 20. That tally includes 10 hurricanes, five of that are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger.
These numbers are greater than the 30-year averages (1991-2020) of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
If the outlooks confirm, this may mark the seventh consecutive above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
Since Alex, Bonnie and Colin have already formed, the subsequent system to grow to be at the least a tropical storm will receive the name Danielle.