Greater than 40% of adults within the U.S. are obese. That is an enormous number, which makes the group a force to be reckoned with if their habits start to vary suddenly. That is why we have seen so many Wall Street analysts exploring the potential fallout from latest weight reduction medications like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic on different industries from real estate to medical devices to food and beverage firms . A lot of these exercises have been theoretical and have include warnings that it would take some time for them to play out available in the market. But perhaps not. Bank of America’s trading desk recounted a recent meeting with Walmart chief financial officer John David Rainey on Tuesday where the retailer disclosed that it’s already seeing a drop-off in food consumption amongst customers who’re using GLP-1 medicines. It is also seeing a pick-up in sales in health and fitness items like yoga mats and athletic apparel. Still early days These comments come as greater than 9 million prescriptions have been written for this class of medication, which also treat type 2 diabetes, in line with Trilliant Health. While there was an enormous gain, it’s barely scratching the surface of the potential market. NVO YTD mountain Novo Nordisk shares are up 34% in for the reason that start of 2023. Manufacturing constraints have limited supply and led to periodic shortages. Some potential patients haven’t got coverage of the pricey medicines through their medical health insurance plans yet. (For instance, those in search of to make use of GLP-1 drugs for obesity cannot receive coverage in the event that they are insured by Medicare because the federal health plan shouldn’t be allowed to cover weight reduction drugs.) Also, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, which has been shown to assist patients in clinical trials lose as much as 20% of their weight, hasn’t yet received Food and Drug Administration approval for weight reduction. That would come by the 12 months’s end, analysts predict. The drug is available on the market as a kind 2 diabetes treatment in the mean time. Walmart told Bank of America that fiscal second-quarter sales benefited roughly 1% from GLP-1 drug sales volumes. “While it’s a lower margin business, there might be some improvements in profitability early next 12 months when long-term contracts are revisited,” Bank of America wrote in an email. All which means that the knock-on effects from taking the drug will only grow over time. Walmart’s comments are significant for the reason that retailer is capable of use its internal data to link customers who’re taking the drugs to their actual shopping patterns. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares have risen nearly 49% 12 months to this point. Fewer calories in In August, Morgan Stanley predicted that GLP-1 medications may lead to a 1.3% drop in calorie consumption within the U.S. by 2035. The analysts drew on survey data that suggested those taking the drugs reduce their calorie intake by 20% to 30% as they eat fewer meals and snacks. In addition they assumed that these same consumers were more prone to buy indulgent foods and beverages. The firm’s analysts have since dug in deeper, using data from market researcher Numerator Insights, to indicate that packaged food, typically present in the middle of the shop, does over-index with shoppers who’ve obesity. And these are precisely the varieties of foods which are eliminated when people attempt to drop pounds. The trend has implications for investors as can clearly be seen within the stocks of medical device firms comparable to Insulet , a maker of insulin pumps. Its stock has fallen 45% 12 months to this point on fears that these drugs will shrink the corporate’s market potential. Other stocks within the sector have followed an analogous pattern. “Consensus estimates for brand spanking new GLP-1s imply a small headwind to U.S. obesity and diabetes prevalence [compound annual growth rates,] which is significant because these are key risk aspects for device-intensive diseases comparable to osteoarthritis, coronary disease and sleep apnea,” Wells Fargo analyst Larry Biegelsen wrote in a research note Tuesday. Nonetheless, he said, the impact is not as big as one might suspect. PODD YTD mountain Insulet shares have fall greater than 45% for the reason that start of the 12 months. In accordance with Biegelsen, consensus estimates suggest that 8.3 million people shall be on GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes in 2030, or a 5.1% penetration of the potential marketplace for the drug. About half can be taking the drug for obesity, he said. “If all obese patients on a GLP-1 were not obese, the 2023-2030 CAGR of obese patients within the US would decline by 40 [basis points] to 1.9% from 2.3%,” Biegelsen said. Daniel Lyons, a portfolio manager and health-care industry research analyst at Janus Henderson Investors, told CNBC, that he expects it would take “a few years for the downstream implications to undergo the system.” Lyons cited using statins, that are used to lower cholesterol, as example of how things could play out over time. “Did heart disease completely go away?” he asked, explaining that although these drugs are widely prescribed and helpful, not everyone who can profit is on the therapy. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.