Investors are contemplating where and when the following big obesity drug deal will occur. In the mean time, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have the growing obesity drug market all to themselves. But given the potential size of this chance, which some have put at greater than $100 billion by 2030 , other pharmaceuticals corporations — each large and small — desire a piece of the motion. AstraZeneca and Roche have recently jumped into the race by making acquisitions, and analysts see more deals ahead. Some have speculated, for instance, that Pfizer could hedge its bets with an acquisition after suffering setbacks with two of its own experimental weight reduction drugs . Pfizer still has one other drug it’s working on on this category, with data expected in the primary half of next 12 months. “While the [once-daily oral] formulation may keep some hope alive for Pfizer’s obesity strategy, we predict it’s increasingly apparent the corporate can have to look to external assets to deliver in the marketplace opportunity it had portrayed,” wrote Barclays analyst Carter Gould in a research note earlier this month. Pfizer has said it anticipates oral GLP-1 medications will account for one-third of the market. Pfizer shares were reeling Wednesday, as investors reacted to a disappointing outlook from the corporate. Its stock hit a 10-year low intraday and is down about 49% 12 months to this point, with a virtually 14% drop in December alone. Ahead of the investor meeting, views of the name were mixed, with fewer than half of the analysts covering it rating it a buy. Deal activity within the space is already robust. In early November, AstraZeneca licensed ECC5004 , an oral glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist being investigated by Eccogene for its use treating obesity, Type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic conditions. And it may not be done. Executives said they’re continuing “to scan the landscape and understand what might fit best into this growing portfolio.” Roche agreed in early December to purchase Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion upfront , plus potential milestone payments. Carmot has been working on the event of CT-388, a weekly injection that two incretin hormones, GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonists. In that way, it’s just like Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, which was recently approved to treat obesity under the brand name Zepbound. Along with this lead asset, Carmot has two other compounds in earlier stages on this category, including an oral drug, CT-996. The likely suitors In a recent research note, Jefferies analyst Roger Song said the “short list of high potential ‘next buyer[s]'” within the GLP-1 space includes not only Pfizer, but additionally Amgen , Regeneron , Novartis and Novo Nordisk. “A meaningful number of huge caps which have exposure to obesity and/or adjacencies could possibly be thinking about beefing up their presence,” Song wrote. “Based on our pipeline review of 24 large caps, we found that 13 large caps currently have exposure to either obesity/[type 2 diabetes] (7) or [cardiovascular]/liver/metabolic kidney (12).” Song also noted that Bristol-Myers Squibb , Sanofi , AbbVie and Biogen don’t have any pipeline products in these disease areas. Deals have already been a part of the equation even for category leaders Novo and Lilly. Their approach has not only been to bulk up assets that treat diabetes and obesity but additionally so as to add potential products that could possibly be prescribed alongside Wegovy and Zepbound, their most important GLP-1 treatments. For instance, Lilly agreed to purchase Versanis Bio for about $2 billion in July. The clinical-stage biotech has been working on treatments to guard against muscle wasting , which may occur when patients quickly drop a few pounds. Which means other corporations which are designing drugs to forestall the lack of lean muscle is also eyed for future transactions, analysts said. These corporations include names like Scholar Rock and Biohaven . SRRK YTD mountain Scholar Rock stock 12 months to this point. Michael Yee, Song’s colleague at Jefferies, recently boosted his price goal on Scholar Rock by $10 to $30, or about 62% above where the stock closed Tuesday. Yee said his call on the clinical-stage company was tied to the “increasing strategic value in obesity” in addition to the eye being paid by large-cap pharma. Scholar Rock has a market cap of roughly $1.4 billion. Take Regeneron. Jefferies’ Song called out comments its management has made in regards to the potential for its anti-myostatin muscle preservation technology. The corporate will begin a trial next 12 months its use as patients are treated for obesity. In a recent investor presentation, the corporate said studies on nonhuman primates showed its myostatin antibodies combined with semaglutide, the lively ingredient in Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy, produced a greater weight reduction where more fat — relatively than lean muscle — was lost. Regeneron shares have outperformed this 12 months, and are up 20% 12 months to this point. Nearly all of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, in line with FactSet. Roche has also highlighted its own pipeline of muscle preservation therapies when it acquired Carmot this month. The potential targets Meanwhile, there stays a desire to have drugs which are as effective at weight reduction as Wegovy and Zepbound, but in a pill form. Straight away the 2 approved drugs are distributed via a weekly injection. A pill can be easier to fabricate and can be preferred by many patients who fear injections. It also could cost less. As well as, there may be ongoing research by some corporations into whether adding other gut hormones will increase the drugs’ efficacy. Small- and mid-cap corporations working on drugs within the GLP-1 space include Terns , Viking , Zealand Pharma and Structure Therapeutics . Analysts expect some could possibly be acquired if their compounds show promising results. The identical day that Pfizer announced plans to halt its obesity drug trial resulting from uncomfortable side effects, shares of startup Altimmune soared on progress it reported with its experimental obesity drug. Although the trial was small, about half of the participants saw at the very least a 15% weight reduction once they took Altimmune’s drug. At certain doses, a 20% weight reduction was achieved. Other advantages equivalent to a drop in triglycerides and LDL cholesterol were also seen. ALT 3M mountain Altimmune shares over the past three months. Within the wake of the news, Altimmune CEO Vipin Garg said the corporate must strike a partnership or a cope with larger pharmaceutical company to maneuver ahead to phase 3 clinical trials and work toward launching the drug often known as pemvidutide. Even with the share gains that followed that comment, the corporate’s stock is down 62% this 12 months, and it is rather small, with a market value of only $330 million. In keeping with FactSet, all the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy, but smaller stocks are inclined to be less liquid and generally is a riskier bet. The typical price goal is $22.29, nearly 275% above where shares closed Tuesday. JMP Securities analyst Jonathan Wolleben said Altimmune shares are undervaluing its opportunity, which he puts at $5 billion in peak sales for treatment of each obesity and NASH, a liver disease. His price goal of $25 is barely higher than the Wall Street average. Wolleben has had discussions with various general practitioners and endocrinologists to learn more about what patients are in search of. Although a 12% weight reduction is taken into account to be “clinically meaningful,” doctors said patients are in search of drops of as much as 18% to twenty%. As more drugs are approved to treat weight reduction in the approaching years, doctors are discovering other associated advantages with every one. Which means doctors will look to match the patient to the drug that most closely fits their health needs, Wolleben said. For instance, he said, some drugs could also be higher fitted to a patient with obesity who also needs to regulate their blood sugar levels, while one other treatment could also be a greater fit for somebody affected by each obesity and fatty liver disease. Understanding these profiles also may suggest which tie-ups may make essentially the most sense. “A more nuanced interpretation of those mechanistic subgroups and goal applications will allow investors to seek out undervalued but derisked candidates,” Wolleben wrote in a research note on Dec. 4. “To not be lost on this segmentation, these obesity ‘niches’ are large and will support multiple blockbuster drugs in each class.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.