Most analysts predict the market for brand new weight reduction drugs akin to Wegovy and Mounjaro might be enormous, but estimates vary for its exact size depending on who you ask.
On Monday, Citi raised its estimate for incretin drug sales to $71 billion by 2035, up from its prior estimate of $55 billion. That viewpoint seems really conservative when placed side by side with predictions akin to Guggenheim’s. Last month, the firm made a case for there being a $150 billion to $200 billion opportunity for these drugs.
Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez’s conviction comes from his belief that GLP-1-based incretins will change into essentially the most prescription drugs ever by or before 2031. Not only do these drugs work well for managing insulin levels and helping patients drop some pounds, but studies are also underway to point out their advantages for cardiovascular health, sleep apnea and chronic kidney disease, to call a number of.
Fernandez expects $50 billion in GLP-1 sales will come from patients with diabetes as incretin medication becomes the usual of take care of this condition. Patients with obesity will add one other $140 billion in sales, he said.
Citi’s forecast does reflect more modest assumptions. It’s assuming the variety of patients choosing the weekly injections might be below 10% of the non-Medicare obese patient population.
“Despite the plain demand and unmet medical need, we proceed to struggle with our inability to predict with any accuracy the long-term upside for incretins given the >42% prevalence of obesity,” analyst Andrew Baum wrote in a research note Monday.
The drugs are very pricey, with an inventory price of as much as $1,350 per 30 days for Wegovy. For the time being, private insurance coverage is not a guarantee for those searching for weight reduction treatment, and the federal Medicare program doesn’t cover weight reduction drugs in any respect.
Still, the insurance situation is improving, as are supply bottlenecks.
Quite plenty of analysts expect these issues might be worked out over time and expect peak sales for these medications to achieve around $100 billion by 2030. Goldman Sachs joined this camp last Monday with its latest forecast.
“In 2030, we estimate that ~15mn adults within the US might be treated with AOM [anti-obesity medication] for chronic weight management (excluding patients treated for type 2 diabetes), which represents ~13% penetration into the U.S. adult population,” analyst Chris Shibutani wrote in a research note.
Shibutani said about $52 billion might be captured by Eli Lilly, which sells Mounjaro, or tirzepatide. Eli Lilly expects the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve this drug to treat obesity by the top of this yr. Its pipeline also includes experimental, next-generation incretins orforglipron and retatrutide.
Eli Lilly shares have risen nearly 60% because the start of the yr.
Novo Nordisk, which is already approved to sell Wegovy (semaglutide) as a weight reduction treatment, also has additional anti-obesity drugs in its pipeline akin to CagriSema.
Many industry analysts anticipate that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will reign over this market segment in a duopoly for quite some time. There are another drugmakers trying to enter this segment, but they continue to be significantly behind. Goldman’s model forecasts the 2 corporations could have an 80% share of the market in 2030.
Each stocks are up significantly on the back of optimism for the anti-obesity drug market. Eli Lilly shares have gained nearly 60%, while Novo Nordisk has climbed greater than 40%.
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