ABUJA, Niger,a – Feb. 18, 2023: Supporters of Nigeria’s Labour Party parade within the streets during a worldwide march for the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi ahead of the Nigerian presidential election scheduled for February 25, 2023.
KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images
Nigerians head to the polls on Saturday, with an unprecedented youth turnout expected against a backdrop of widespread insecurity and economic hardship.
After 24 years of uninterrupted democracy since ending military dictatorship in 1999, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy is conducting its seventh election.
Nigeria is at a pivotal juncture amid record unemployment and inflation, an enormous debt burden, fuel shortages, worsening security conditions, endemic corruption and crumbling public services.
The record 93.5 million Nigerians registered to vote will select amongst 18 candidates to switch President Muhammadu Buhari, who has reached the two-term limit.
Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s president, speaks throughout the U.S.-Africa Business Forum in Latest York.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The aspiring successor chosen by the ruling All Progressives Congress party, 70-year-old former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu, is a frontrunner alongside former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the most important opposition Peoples Democratic Party, and Peter Obi, a relative outsider from the Labor Party.
Obi’s disruptive and decentralized campaign has resonated with young and skilled voters disillusioned by the 2 most important parties, and a few polls now have him leading the race.
Leena Koni Hoffmann, associate fellow of the Africa Programme at Chatham House, told CNBC on Monday that the presidential election shall be the “most unpredictable” because the transition to civilian rule.
“We’ve not had these technologies shaping Nigeria’s elections before, and we have never had a three-way race before, and the context isn’t primed for a straightforward incumbent win,” Koni Hoffmann explained. The Independent National Electoral Commission is rolling out an unprecedented technological innovations to make sure a free and fair election.
ABUJA, Nigeria – Feb. 20, 2023: Former South African President Thabo Mbeki speaks to media. The Commonwealth of Nations sent 16 observers for the presidential and governorship elections to be held on 25 February and 11 March in Nigeria.
Adam Abu-Bashal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
During a period through which West Africa has been beset by coups and violent extremism, Hoffmann added that the region “needs Nigeria to have a reputable election.”
A deluge of international observers arrives this week, including a mission led by former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson and a Commonwealth of Nations delegation headed by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. The U.S. has also announced visa bans on individuals identified as undermining confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.
Demographics
Nigeria has one in every of the world’s fastest-growing populations — currently near 220 million and forecast to double by 2050. It also has one in every of the world’s youngest average populations, with 42% of residents under the age of 15 and a median age of just over 18, the UN estimates.
Political engagement has spiked lately, amid deteriorating prospects for Nigeria’s youth — eras of economic growth haven’t expanded opportunities, social inequality has increased, and youth unemployment hit 42.5%, in response to the National Bureau of Statistics. Almost 40% of registered voters are between 18 and 34, in response to INEC.
IBADAN, Nigeria – Feb. 16, 2023: Supporters of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), parade throughout the party’s presidential campaign in Ibadan, Nigeria.
Adekunle Ajayi/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“Recent years have been particularly brutal for young people in Nigeria, having to pass though two recessions and a failing economy and with inflation in double digits and the impact of food inflation,” Koni Hoffmann said.
4 in 10 Nigerians experience monetary deprivation and greater than six out of 10 are “multidimensionally poor,” the National Bureau of Statistics finds.
“The type of social mobility and independence that you just would project for yourself in your early twenties, the last couple of years have not allowed young those that type of space for pursuing opportunity, for self-determination, in order that explains quite a lot of the frustration and discontent,” Koni Hoffman said.
Economy
First Lady Aisha Muhammadu Buhari in September apologized to Nigerians for the economic problems and growing insecurity they’ve experienced since her husband was elected in 2015. Alongside the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine, Koni Hoffmann noted “missed opportunities” and “self-inflicted crises” under Buhari’s regime.
In 2019, the federal government closed goods movement through Nigeria’s borders with neighboring Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, ostensibly to stem smuggling of rice and other agricultural goods.
Economists panned the choice, which Koni Hoffmann suggested rendered Nigeria and its neighbors more vulnerable to the damage of the pandemic.
The administration has come under fire for its multiple exchange rate system, aimed toward defending the domestic naira currency by artificially inflating its value. Critics argue that such interventions heighten volatility by driving greater fluctuations in price discovery.
The oil sector accounts for greater than 80% of national budgetary revenues, leaving Abuja highly liable to oil price variations and low production as a consequence of large scale crude theft.
KANO, Nigeria – Feb. 9, 2023: Supporters carry banner of candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar and running mate Ifeanyi Okowa during a campaign rally in Kano, northwest Nigeria.
PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images
Tinubu’s foreign exchange policies are unlikely to deviate from those of the present administration, analysts say, while Abubakar and Obi propose more liberal economic measures and diversification, alongside greater fiscal prudence.
“Regardless of who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the general public debt-to-GDP ratio is prone to remain on an upwards path within the near-term, but victory for an opposition candidate could make the fiscal outlook considerably brighter further down the road,” said Virág Fórizs, Africa economist at Capital Economics.
“Opposition parties’ fiscal discipline pledges put Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi in a greater position to get Nigeria’s fiscal house so as.”
Fórizs concluded, “The upshot is that, from an economic standpoint, the polls offer a selection between marginal steps away from growth-sapping policies and a more meaningful shift towards pro-market reforms that might unlock Nigeria’s economic potential down the road but involve near-term economic pain.”
Security
Buhari took office vowing to tackle Islamist militant organization Boko Haram, whose insurgency killed hundreds and displaced tens of millions.
Government forces seemingly succeeded, reclaiming large swathes of territory from the jihadist group. Nevertheless, the extremist contingent splintered into competing groups within the north, complicating the challenge facing the incoming president.
Meanwhile, cattle bandits terrorize the north-central and northwest states, secessionists within the southeast clash with police and cattle herders battle farmers in “middle belt” states.
The Council on Foreign Relations Security Tracker documented around 7,000 violent deaths in Nigeria in 2022, down from 9,000 in 2021. It also confirmed a rise in state violence against civilians.
ABUJA, Nigeria – Oct. 20, 2021: A young woman stand in front of riot policemen during a protest to commemorate one 12 months anniversary of EndSars, a protest movement against police brutality on the Unity Fountain in Abuja.
KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images
This got here to a head in late 2020, when hundreds of young people demonstrated countrywide against police brutality. Security forces sought to violently quash the protests, culminating within the Lekki Toll Gate massacre in October 2020.
Peter Obi, the 61-year-old former governor of Anambra State, rode that wave with a vision for policy and governance reforms, including proposals for tackling deep-rooted insecurity and corruption, while promoting social and political mobility.
“The dominant parties didn’t seem to supply the sorts of channels or vessels that young people wanted, so that they have turned to Peter Obi, who’s the closest proximate for them, for a way various sections of young people in Nigeria would love to remake the nation’s politics,” said Hoffmann.