WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump began 2022 on a high. Primary candidates were flocking to Florida to court the previous president for a coveted endorsement. His rallies were drawing hundreds. A bevy of investigations remained largely under the radar.
One yr later, Trump is facing a really different reality.
He’s mired in criminal investigations that would end with indictments. He has been blamed for Republicans’ disappointing performance within the November elections. And while he’s now a declared presidential candidate, the six weeks since he announced have been marked by self-inflicted crises. Trump has not held a single campaign event and he barely leaves the confines of his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.
Trump’s subdued campaign announcement has left even former stalwarts wondering whether he’s serious about one other run for the White House.
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“There was a movie called ‘Failure to Launch.’ I believe that’s what Donald Trump’s strategy of running has been up to now. He had the announcement, and he hasn’t done anything to back it up since then,” said Michael Biundo, a GOP operative who advised Trump’s 2016 campaign but is steering clear this time.
“What campaign?” asked longtime GOP donor Dan Eberhart, who gave $100,000 to Trump’s 2020 reelection effort but is now gravitating to DeSantis. “Trump’s early launch seems more a response to DeSantis’ overperformance and a legal strategy against prosecution than a political campaign.”
Trump campaign officials insist they’ve been spending the weeks since his Nov. 15 announcement methodically constructing out a political operation. Trump, they note, announced just before the vacation season, when politicians typically lie low, and he did so unusually early, giving him loads of time to ramp up.
“It is a marathon and our game plan is being implemented by design,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.
“We’re also assembling top-level teams in early voting states and expanding our massive data operation to make sure we dominate on all fronts,” he saidd. “We are usually not going to play the media’s game that tries to dictate how we campaign.”
Trump also defended criticism of his campaign’s slow start. “The Rallies will probably be larger and higher than ever (because our Country goes to Hell), nevertheless it’s a little bit bit early, don’t you think that?” he wrote on his social media site.
While he has eschewed campaign events, the previous president has nonetheless courted controversy.
There was his dinner with a white nationalist and the rapper formerly often known as Kanye West, who has been spouting antisemitic tropes and conspiracies; his suggestions that parts of the Structure be terminated to return him to power; and the “major announcement” that turned out to be the launch of $99 digital trading cards that don’t profit his campaign.
Since his announcement, he has also faced a series of legal losses, including the appointment of a special counsel to oversee the Justice Department’s investigation into the presence of classified documents at Trump’s Florida estate in addition to key facets of a separate inquiry involving Trump’s efforts to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election. Trump’s namesake company was convicted of tax fraud last month for helping executives dodge taxes on extravagant perks. In Georgia, a special grand jury appears to be wrapping up its work investigating his efforts to stay in power.
Trump’s potential rivals have spent months laying the groundwork for their very own campaigns, visiting early-voting states, speaking before conservative groups and constructing the sorts of relationships that may benefit them down the road.
Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Family Leader, an Iowa-based conservative group, pointed to Republicans corresponding to former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who’ve made repeat visits to the state.
“They’ve done the early work that is required to be out in front of Iowans they usually’re thoroughly received,” he said, noting the period since Trump announced his candidacy has been “unusually quiet. In a number of ways, it sort of appears like it is the announcement that didn’t even occur or doesn’t feel prefer it happened because there was no immediate buzz. … I do not hear from people on he ground, ‘I can’t wait for Trump to run.’ ‘Did you hear Trump’s announcement?'”
He called the poor performance of some Trump-backed candidates within the 2022 midterms a “caution flag” and said that even Trump supporters are open to backing another person within the 2024 contest.
“For the president, I believe he’s definitely going to should earn the nomination,” he said.
Despite his vulnerabilities, Trump stays the early GOP front-runner. While he’s seen as potentially beatable in a one-on-one matchup, he’s more likely to profit from a crowded field that splits the anti-Trump votes, just as he did when he ran and won in 2016.
But Biundo, the previous Trump campaign adviser, said that after watching likely candidates such Pence pay visits to early voting states, he too, believes the sphere is wide open.
“I do not think Donald Trump has it locked up. I don’t think Ron DeSantis has it locked up. I don’t think anyone has it locked up,” he said. “At this point, it’s an open primary.”
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