The busy begin to September within the Atlantic Basin has faded away, with Danielle and Earl – two hurricanes that roamed the Atlantic last week – not being tracked by the National Hurricane Center.
Earl made the transition Saturday from a hurricane to an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic.
An extratropical cyclone is a system that gets its energy through the collision of a chilly air mass with warm, moist air. The sort of storm system can produce large swells and hurricane-force winds, but since it lacks a warm-air core, it shouldn’t be considered a tropical storm or hurricane.
The remnants of former Hurricane Earl proceed to provide large swells across much of the Atlantic, and the specter of life-threatening surf and rip currents is predicted to proceed through the beginning of the workweek along the U.S. East Coast.
Apart from Earl’s remnants, the Atlantic Basin is unusually quiet for mid-September – the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season – with only a pair of weak disturbances within the eastern and central tropical Atlantic grabbing the eye of the FOX Forecast Center.
“While it’s fairly quiet for where we must always be at once, it could ramp up at a moment’s notice,” FOX Weather meteorologist Katie Garner said.
Here’s what to anticipate within the tropics within the week ahead.
Eastern Atlantic tropical disturbance
A tropical disturbance centered just off the western coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Based on the FOX Forecast Center, environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, so any development of this disturbance will likely be slow to occur because it moves west or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic through the tip of the week.
The NHC currently gives the tropical disturbance a low likelihood of development in the following five days.
Central Atlantic tropical disturbance
One other tropical disturbance centered about halfway between the western coast of Africa and the Caribbean islands is producing a big area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Based on the FOX Forecast Center, some slow development of this disturbance is feasible over the following several days because it generally moves west to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Caribbean islands by the tip of the week.
The NHC also gives this tropical disturbance a low likelihood of development in the following five days.
2022 Atlantic hurricane season off to a slow start
Early to mid-September is the time of the season when sea-surface temperatures are the warmest, upper-level winds chill out and drier air is usually not widespread.
Unlike recent lively years, dry air has been more dominant than usual across the eastern parts of the Atlantic Basin, which has stunted the organization and development of tropical cyclones.
August ended without seeing a single tropical cyclone within the Atlantic Basin for under the second time within the satellite era.
During a mean yr, eight named storms and three hurricanes have typically already formed by now, but to date in 2022, the tally stands at only five named storms and two hurricanes.
The subsequent system to prepare right into a tropical storm with winds of not less than 40 mph can be called Fiona.
There aren’t any immediate worries from any direct tropical threats to the U.S. coastline.
Computer forecast models show one other significant lull in tropical activity for not less than the following week.