While Ian has been slow to arrange, the FOX Forecast Center expects the storm to achieve strength within the Caribbean Sea, and far of Florida is included within the forecast cone for what is going to likely develop into a major hurricane in the approaching days.
The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the lower Florida Keys as Tropical Storm Ian moves closer to the US It’s forecast to develop into a hurricane Monday.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged Floridians to take precautions and declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties ahead of the impacts of Tropical Storm Ian, which is predicted to undergo a period of rapid intensification on Monday and Tuesday.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone’s (tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) maximum sustained winds increase by not less than 35 mph in a 24-hour period, based on the National Hurricane Center.
“Make preparations now,” DeSantis said at a news conference on Sunday. “I do know a variety of people have been doing it throughout the state of Florida.”
“I’m really concerned that folks won’t take the threat seriously, especially for places like Tampa Naples and Fort Myers. They’re taking a look at the cone or the track and it looks like its offshore or west of the and so they are probably downplaying the impact,” Acting Director the NHC, Jamie Rhone told FOX Weather. “But what I need to emphasize to those people is that it really doesn’t take a ton of wind on this a part of the country to push water onto the coast. And we may very well be taking a look at an honest storm surge event even when the track is offshore.
Ian’s forecast has trended westward over the weekend. So while there continues to be some uncertainty, which is typical this far out in time, here’s all the things the FOX Forecast Center knows about this significant hurricane threat to the southeastern US later this week.
Where is Tropical Storm Ian?
As of Sunday evening, Tropical Storm Ian was within the Caribbean Sea and centered about 160 miles south of Grand Cayman within the Cayman Islands and greater than 430 miles away from the western tip of Cuba.
Ian had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph and was moving northwest at 12 mph.
“You see while it doesn’t have a watch, you possibly can see a really impressive twist, rotation within the clouds so that means a variety of structure there,” Rhone said. “So when it moves right into a more conducive environment, especially the northwest Caribbean where the oceans are very warm, it could rapidly intensify and all our guidance is showing that’s a high probability.”
The Hurricane Hunters have several missions scheduled for Tropical Storm Ian to gather data that can be used to assist meteorologists refine their forecasts.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Grand Cayman within the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. The NHC track expects Ian to pass near the Cayman Islands on Monday. Monday night and early Tuesday, it could omit or very near western Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.
A Hurricane Warning signifies that winds of not less than 74 mph are expected throughout the warning area. A warning is usually issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds (39-plus mph), conditions that make preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Mantanzas.
A Tropical Storm Warning signifies that winds of not less than 39 mph are expected throughout the warning area inside 36 hours.
Here’s all the things to find out about Hurricane Ian:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West. Little Cayman and Cayman Brac together with the Dry Tortugas are also within the watch.
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical-storm-force winds (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible throughout the storm watch area, generally inside 48 hours. What’s the forecast for Tropical Storm Ian?
Rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to start Monday.
The newest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Ian becoming a hurricane Monday, then reaching major-hurricane strength (Category 3 or stronger) Tuesday.
The mix of deep, warm waters and relaxed wind shear – winds that change direction and speed at various heights – over the Caribbean Sea is predicted to permit Ian to rapidly intensify into a serious hurricane.
“There’s a variety of fuel within the Gulf of Mexico. The typical temperature is about 87 degrees, and the utmost water temperature is about 89 degrees,” Frazer said. “That’s just fuel for these hurricanes. Hurricanes love temperatures which can be in excess of 80 degrees and low wind shear. And there is no such thing as a wind shear happening straight away within the Gulf of Mexico.”
The Loop Current, a current of very warm water flowing northward from the western Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico, could also provide a lift to Ian’s intensification rate, because it has long been known to be a big source of fuel for strong Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.
Later this week, wind shear is predicted to extend as Ian heads northward through the Gulf of Mexico, and that may likely cause the long run hurricane to weaken in intensity because it approaches the northern or eastern Gulf Coast toward the tip of the workweek.
But Ian is forecast to be a big hurricane no matter its intensity, and its forward progress is predicted to decelerate, so Ian will still be a big hurricane threat along the northern or eastern Gulf Coast no matter its category rating on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
What are the expected impacts of Tropical Storm Ian within the Caribbean?
Hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) are expected to achieve Grand Cayman within the Cayman Islands Monday, with tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) expected there for Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas of Cuba by early Tuesday.
Moreover, 3 to six inches of rain is predicted across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated amounts as much as 8 inches possible.
Even higher rainfall totals are forecast for western Cuba, where 6 to 10 inches is predicted, with localized totals as much as 16 inches possible.
The heavy rain could produce flash flooding and mudslides in hilly and mountainous areas, particularly in Jamaica and Cuba.
The NHC reports that storm surge could swell seas 9 to 14 feet over normal tides in western Cuba and a pair of to 4 feet above normal tides within the Cayman Islands.
The Florida Keys into south and central Florida could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, as much as 6 inches locally between Monday and Wednesday.
North Florida and the Panhandle could see rain Thursday through Saturday.
What threat will Tropical Storm Ian pose to Florida and the US Gulf Coast?
Tropical Storm Ian is predicted to be steered northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.
Nevertheless, the range in possible tracks from the pc forecast models indicates Ian could track anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to portions of the Florida Peninsula.
“Individuals are just so fixated on two things, the Saffir-Simpson intensities, the number, and the track. And when a storm like this gets big it’s going to spread impacts and push water and produce rain and winds in places that’s going to catch people off guard,” said Rhone. “So I actually need everyone eon the Florida peninsula to actually be being attentive and eager about the hazards and never the Saffir-Simpson scale and never the thin black line in the course of the cone.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned in a Sunday press conference of likely power outages once Tropical Storm Ian moves closer to Florida.
“Anticipate, particularly the closer you’re to where the attention of the storm makes landfall, anticipate power outages. That’s something that may likely occur with a hurricane of this magnitude.”
Each yellow line on the map below depicts a distinct computer forecast model solution.
National Weather Service offices across the country are launching extra weather balloons every day to supply additional data for the pc forecast models that can be used to assist meteorologists refine their forecasts.
The expected increase in size of Ian and its potential to decelerate in forward progress near the Gulf Coast will increase the specter of life-threatening storm surge, no matter the long run hurricane’s intensity at landfall.
But prior to any landfall in Florida or along the northern or eastern Gulf Coast, locally heavy rain will begin to spread into the Florida Keys and Central and South Florida starting Monday and persisting through Wednesday morning. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain is predicted, with isolated amounts as much as 6 inches possible.
Locally heavy rain could then spread toward North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the southeastern US on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
This heavy rain may end in flash and concrete flooding across the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula through midweek. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across North Florida and parts of the southeastern US later this week can’t be ruled out, especially in Central Florida given already-saturated conditions.
Beyond Ian’s expected impact on Florida or the northern or eastern Gulf Coast, it should then either move inland somewhere over the southeastern US, or it could track near or along portions of the Eastern Seaboard.
So the underside line is that it’s still too early to know exactly where Tropical Storm Ian will track after its landfall, but know that there may very well be threats of wind and flooding rainfall extending into other parts of the southeastern and eastern US late this week and into next weekend.
Florida’s emergency management agency is advising residents to organize for the approaching storm now. Floridians can check their evacuation zone by typing their address into an interactive map.
The FOX Forecast Center can be keeping a detailed eye on this technique because it strengthens and tracks across the Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico in the times ahead.