Meteorologists on the FOX Forecast Center are closely monitoring a tropical disturbance near South America, which has a high likelihood of developing right into a stronger system in the approaching days.
FOX Weather has named this technique Disturbance 1. The National Hurricane Center has designated the disturbance as Invest 98L. “Invest” is a moniker utilized by the NHC to discover an area of weather that’s being investigated for possible development into at the very least a tropical depression inside the subsequent several days.
Hurricane Hunters have been flying missions into Invest 98L since Wednesday. The info collected by these flights are crucial to helping refine tropical-weather forecasts.
Once the disturbance gains a middle of circulation and has sustained winds of at the very least 38 mph or less, it is classed as a tropical depression. Once it has winds of 39-73 mph, it known as a tropical storm and can receive a reputation.
Here’s all the pieces that you must learn about Invest 98L, which FOX Weather has dubbed Disturbance 1.
Where is Invest 98L now?
As of Thursday evening, Invest 98L had developed into an area of low pressure and was positioned within the southeastern Caribbean Sea. It was just north of the Venezuelan coast.
It has been producing stormy weather across parts of the Windward Islands, in addition to northern Venezuela and the so-called ABC island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.
Where is Invest 98L headed?
Within the short term, Invest 98L is within the southeastern Caribbean, and producing heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas across northern Venezuela and the ABC island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.
It’s likely that a tropical depression forms in the subsequent couple of days because the disturbance continues its trek through the Caribbean.
Next week is when forecast models wish to bring the system closer to the mainland US, where each the Gulf of Mexico region and the Florida Peninsula have possibilities of being affected.
It is just too early to say with any certainty where Invest 98L is headed next week. Several aspects will play a job in determining the last word destination of the system, including the speed at which it develops and the position of the jet stream. Anyone with interests along the Gulf Coast or Florida should pay close attention to the forecast.
What’s working against Invest 98L?
Invest 98L is facing a quite tough environment for much development through Friday because of Category 4 Hurricane Fiona which is moving toward Bermuda.
Upper-level winds from Fiona are creating a number of wind shear – winds that change direction and speed at various heights – which is keeping thunderstorms related to the disturbance from growing. That is anticipated to proceed through at the very least Friday.
What’s helping Invest 98L develop?
Beyond Friday, Invest 98L is anticipated to maneuver into the Caribbean Sea and an environment far more suited to the event of tropical systems.
Wind shear is anticipated to be much lower on this region this weekend.
Water temperatures on this a part of the ocean are within the upper 80s, which is a few degrees above average, providing ample fuel for development.
Bottom line
Invest 98L is forecast to maneuver through the Caribbean Sea this weekend, where it is anticipated to strengthen. It could turn out to be a tropical depression or tropical storm inside the subsequent couple of days. It is just too soon to say with any certainty how strong the system could turn out to be.
Long-range forecast models suggest the disturbance could pose a threat to areas along the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula within the US late next week. It is just too early to say for certain where it’s headed next week. Anyone living in those areas should pay close attention to the forecast.