Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., holds a news conference on energy permitting reform within the Capitol in Washington on Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022.
Bill Clark | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Democrats grew their Senate majority in 2022. They’ll be lucky to maintain those gains in 2024.
Republicans, who took over the House following November’s midterm elections, are hoping to duplicate that success within the Senate next 12 months. They’ve reason to be hopeful: Democrats face a frightening 2024 Senate map that puts them on defense in 23 of the cycle’s 34 races, including multiple seats considered ripe for GOP challenges.
In a number of the most vulnerable contests, Democrats try to carry on to Senate seats in states that voted for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden within the 2020 presidential election.
The grim outlook has some Senate Democrats considering retirement, even after the caucus expanded to a 51-49 majority following a better-than-expected showing within the midterms.
Listed here are a number of the top Senate races to observe:
West Virginia
Sen. Joe Manchin could also be one of the conservative Democrats within the Senate, but his party affiliation still imperils his possibilities for reelection in deep-red West Virginia, which favored Trump by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020.
Which may be why Manchin still hasn’t announced whether he intends to run again — or why he has resisted even acknowledging he’s a Democrat in public.
Manchin’s potential Republican challengers aren’t waiting for the incumbent to disclose his plans. Rep. Alex Mooney, whom Trump backed for his successful House race in 2022, has already netted a $10 million pledge of support from the conservative Club for Growth for his Senate primary run.
Manchin’s campaign had $9.7 million in money readily available as of the tip of March, FEC filings showed.
But Manchin’s biggest possible GOP rival may very well be West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, reportedly the state’s richest man and one in all its favored contenders for the Senate race.
Election analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball in January gave West Virginia a “Leans R” rating, making it probably the most vulnerable Democrat-held Senate seat of the cycle.
Manchin, who won his 2018 Senate race by about three percentage points, has recently put a long way between himself and his fellow Democrats. He even vowed to vote to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature spending bill that Manchin helped pass, while complaining on Fox News that the administration had broken its word.
Arizona
Democrats and Republicans alike are taking aim on the Arizona seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who in late 2022 left the Democratic Party to turn out to be an independent.
The switch from Sinema, who continues to caucus with the Democrats, allows her to skip a potentially bruising Senate primary fight and compete directly in the final election.
However the move doesn’t guarantee her a path to victory within the state, which is taken into account a toss-up and a first-rate takeover opportunity. Sinema has yet to announce if she’s going to seek reelection in 2024.
Once considered a progressive Democrat, Sinema has taken a moderate tack in recent times. She drew criticism from some in her former party over her vote against a minimum-wage hike and her opposition to changing the filibuster.
She now faces a possible challenge from her left in Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has reportedly outraised Sinema as he vies for her job.
Republican Sheriff Mark Lamb has also jumped into the race. He could face off in a GOP primary against Kari Lake, the previous TV news anchor who lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs in Arizona’s 2022 gubernatorial race and is now considering a Senate bid.
If Sinema runs, the Arizona Senate race could turn out to be a three-way matchup. It is from clear who would have the advantage within the swing state, which Biden won over Trump in 2020 by lower than one percentage point.
While Sinema’s independent label could draw appeal in a state where registration within the two major parties is rivaled by “Other,” polls show the senator stays unpopular.
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester is one in all three Democrats within the 2024 cycle who’s defending a seat in a state that voted for Trump within the last presidential election. The Republican ex-president won Montana by about 16 points in 2020.
Tester’s seat is taken into account a toss-up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, though the Cook Political Report says the seat leans in Democrats’ favor.
Tester’s decision to run again is welcome news for Democrats, who otherwise would have lost the incumbent advantage in a solid-red state.
But he could still face a formidable threat from his eventual Republican challenger. Former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Rep. Matt Rosendale and Gov. Greg Gianforte have been eyed as possible contenders.
Ohio
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has held his seat since 2007, and he has already announced his plans for a fourth term in office.
However the 2024 Senate race in Ohio is currently considered a toss-up, as Republicans have made significant gains within the state within the last two election cycles.
Trump won the Buckeye State by greater than eight points in 2020, and GOP candidates he endorsed, including now-Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Mike DeWine, won within the midterms.
Matt Dolan, a state senator and partial owner of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team who competed within the 2022 Republican Senate primary, is running for Brown’s seat in 2024. Bernie Moreno, one other Republican contender for the Senate seat, drew scrutiny when he suggested that there ought to be reparations for the descendants of Union Civil War soldiers “who died to save lots of the lives of Black people.”
Michigan
Democrats in 2024 can be defending an open Senate seat in Michigan, a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s surprise decision not to hunt a fifth term erased Democrats’ incumbent advantage over the seat, with no clear successor lined as much as run on the time.
Democrats won major gains in Michigan within the 2022 midterms, taking control of the state House and Senate and securing one other term for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Republicans Michael Hoover and Nikki Snyder have to this point entered the race for Stabenow’s Senate seat.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who won a troublesome House reelection fight within the midterms, is seen as the highest contender for the seat. Slotkin was endorsed in 2022 by former Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican whose vocal criticism of Trump following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot triggered a break along with her party’s leadership and far of its rank and file within the House.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report each say the Michigan Senate race leans Democratic.
California
Unlike a lot of the other races on this list, within the California race there’s little query that Democrats will hold on to the Senate seat that is ready to open up in 2024.
Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who held the seat for 3 many years, at age 89 announced she would retire at the tip of her current term.
By that point, multiple Democrats had already launched their campaigns for her job. The list of declared candidates to this point includes Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, with more potentially on the best way.
Feinstein, the oldest member of the U.S. Senate, took a monthslong leave within the spring on account of health problems. Concerns about Feinstein’s fitness for office quickly became a degree of conflict amongst Democrats, with some openly calling for the senior senator’s immediate resignation and others defending her. Feinstein’s absence from the Senate Judiciary Committee has slowed Democrats’ efforts to advance Biden’s judicial nominees.
Nevada
Trump narrowly lost Nevada to Biden in 2020, and his handpicked Republican candidate Adam Laxalt lost a good closer race for Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s seat in 2022.
Now the state’s other Democratic senator, Jacky Rosen, is searching for reelection in 2024. Her slate of potential Republican challengers appears slim to this point.
Laxalt’s name has come up as a possible 2024 Senate candidate, but the previous Nevada attorney general in April signed on to assist lead a brilliant PAC encouraging Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024.