Championship Week is here. Meaning one overwhelming storyline: Bubble teams jockeying for position, hoping they’ve enough on their respective résumés to succeed in the NCAA Tournament.
Of the whole lot to observe over the following week, who’s in and who’s out will likely be essentially the most talked-about topic by a large margin. Bracketologists will provide frequent updates. Fans will flock to NCAA.com to see the updated NET rankings every morning. The teams will root for as few bid-stealers as possible — meaning schools that wouldn’t ordinarily reach the dance winning their conference tournaments to receive the automated bid.
All projections in the mean time include the regular-season champions from the AAC (South Florida) and Atlantic 10 (Richmond), but neither of them are in the combination for an at-large berth. Florida Atlantic (AAC) and Dayton (A-10) winning their respective conference tournaments would unlock two extra spots.
With that in mind, listed below are the five most interesting bubble teams to observe.
Indiana State
Indiana State lost within the Missouri Valley Tournament championship game to Drake on Sunday and immediately debate began over social media. Detractors pointed to the Sycamores owning only a combined five Quad 1 and a couple of wins of their 28 victories, a 1-4 record in Quad 1 games, the dreaded Quad 4 loss and never having a single win over an at-large. Supporters listed their strong metrics, highlighted by a NET rating of 26 that won’t fall much after the loss to Drake — no team has ever been unnoticed of the tournament with a top-30 NET — and the concept that Indiana State doesn’t get nearly the quantity of opportunities that high-major schools receive for significant wins. It’s an argument that has been had for years: The mid-major with tons of wins, albeit against inferior competition, or the middle-of-the-road power-conference school? It’s going to be a stressful week for the Sycamores.
St. John’s
A couple of weeks ago, the Johnnies weren’t even being considered. That they had lost eight of 10 games to fall three games under .500 within the Big East. A five-game winning streak to shut out the regular season modified that. St. John’s is currently within the “last 4 in” in most projections. But it surely probably must win its Big East Tournament quarterfinal against Seton Hall to feel secure. Rick Pitino’s team has only one win over a consensus at-large team (Creighton) and a 3-9 record in Quad 1 wins after Villanova and Utah dropped within the NET rankings over the weekend, that are concerns. It’s a solid 7-8 away from home, which is something the choice committee looks at, and its NET of 38 is decent enough. Considered one of Villanova/Utah becoming a fourth Quad 1 win would definitely help. Ultimately, though, it’s hard to see the fifth-place team that reaches the tournament semifinals in a robust Big East being unnoticed.
Villanova
Wins over tournament teams North Carolina, Texas Tech, Creighton and Seton Hall, and the primary three were either neutral or on the road. Losses to St. Joseph’s, Butler, Drexel and Penn. Only a bizarre résumé. The Wildcats’ 14 losses will likely be a hindrance — only three teams with 15 losses (2019 Florida, 2018 Alabama, 2017 Vanderbilt) have ever earned an at-large bid — but they’ll lean on a NET of 32, and their 10-11 Quad 1 and a couple of mark is definitely passable. Just like St. John’s, they almost definitely need to succeed in the Big East Tournament semifinals. It is a team that, when on, can beat anybody. It obviously can lose to anyone as well.
TCU
Are the 2 high-level wins, at Baylor and over Houston, enough? Will the Horned Frogs’ 4-10 Quad 1 record and 357th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule preclude them? Only one sub-Quad 1 loss is a strength, and a NET rating of 39 is solid. There are some similarities to Rutgers, a tournament snub last yr, with TCU. The Scarlet Knights had quality metrics and 4 Quad 1 wins, but were punished for not scheduling well enough. One major difference: TCU has avoided the bad losses that did in Rutgers last March, which can do it.
Virginia
The old eye test wouldn’t be kind to the offensively challenged Cavaliers. They’ve failed to succeed in 50 points six times, are ranked 189th in offensive efficiency and own only two wins over the at-large field (Florida and Clemson). Virginia’s NET is a pedestrian 51, nevertheless it doesn’t have a sub-Quad 2 loss. Winning a game within the ACC Tournament, against the Clemson-Boston College/Miami winner, might be enough to succeed in the First 4 in Dayton. Otherwise, they’ll be sweating in Charlottesville.
Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, Wednesday-Saturday
Yes, I’m biased since I cover this league, but there isn’t any higher conference tournament within the country once you have in mind the venue, the town and quality of this conference. It’ll be particularly interesting this yr, once you include the bubble factor, St. John’s, Villanova and Windfall all needing a minimum of one win to feel higher about where they stand. There may be defending national champion and top-seeded Connecticut as the favourite and No. 2 Creighton and No. 3 Marquette because the Huskies’ biggest threats. 4 awesome days at MSG are on tap this week.
Seeding
1. Houston, Purdue, Connecticut, Tennessee
2. North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette, Arizona
3. Baylor, Creighton, Kentucky, Alabama
4. Duke, Auburn, Illinois, Kansas
Stock Watch
Up
Hubert Davis
Tip of the cap to the North Carolina coach and former Knick. There was immense pressure on him after failing to succeed in the NCAA Tournament last yr, loads of people (myself included) questioning whether he could do the job. He nailed the portal — Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) have been instrumental adds — got this group to play terrific defense and has led the Tar Heels to the ACC regular-season crown. North Carolina will likely be the No. 2 seed within the East Region, although landing the last No. 1 shouldn’t be out of the query. This team can win all of it. Davis deserves his flowers.
Tucker DeVries
In search of a mid-major star to take March by storm? Look no further than Drake’s junior. The 6-foot-7 wing — coach Darian DeVries’ son — is a three-level scorer, the Bulldogs’ leading scorer (21.6) and distributor (3.6), and poured in 27 points together with seven rebounds and five assists within the Missouri Valley Conference title-game upset of Indiana State. After a 1-for-13 shooting performance in an opening-round loss to Miami within the tournament last yr, he’ll be extra motivated.
Down
Duke
From losing at home to bitter rival North Carolina to star center Kyle Filipowski pulling a Grayson Allen by tripping Harrison Ingram and the “Cameron Crazies” throwing trash on the taunting Tar Heels, it was an unpleasant Saturday for the Blue Devils. Coach Jon Scheyer then apologized to fans for the performance before leaving the court. Filipowski told reporters he wasn’t aware that Ingram was behind him and his foot slipped, which didn’t look to be the case. It definitely appeared intentional. Duke is now 4-3 against projected tournament teams, an uneven record that doesn’t necessarily bode well for a deep run later this month.
DePaul
It’s one thing to be bad. It’s one other to be DePaul. The Blue Demons wrapped up a winless season within the Big East on Saturday, going 0-20. Of those 20 losses, 15 were by 19 points or more. It is a program that hasn’t had a Big East winning record since 2006-07. Take into consideration that. They’re 52-257 in conference motion over the past 17 years. DePaul has to nail its upcoming coaching search. The embarrassment has to stop sooner or later or the Big East has to start to take into consideration an unprecedented change. The Chicago Catholic school is bringing the league down.