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America isn’t the one country to have an early January riot anymore.
Yesterday, 1000’s of supporters of Brazil’s former President JAIR BOLSONARO unleashed chaos unto the country’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace every week after President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA was sworn into office. Demonstrators were camped out in Brasilia’s Three Powers Square near military bases for months, but on Sunday got past security, climbed onto roofs, smashed windows and eventually stormed the buildings. Now, 1000’s of those rioters have been arrested for the alleged coup attempt.
Some people saw all this coming. We even talked about it in NatSec Every day in October. So if the specter of violence was that real, why wasn’t it taken more seriously?
To PEDRO ABRAMOVAY, Brazil’s former justice minister under Lula who predicted violence coming out of Bolsonaro’s camp, some indicating aspects are directly related to what happened in the USA.
“Bolsonaro has [former President DONALD] TRUMP and the intense right to read as models, with a disinformation network in Brazil that’s inspired directly and not directly by what happened in the USA,” Abramovay said. “Bolsonaro also challenged the electoral system from the start, upsetting his supporters to refuse to simply accept the result.”
But complicity may have played a task in the size of political violence within the capital.
The secretary of public security for Brasilia was ANDERSON TORRES, an ex-Bolsonaro justice minister who had been sworn in only before Lula took office. Journalists in Brazil also note that the military police were taking an informal approach to stopping Capitol invaders — some were even seen taking pictures of the demonstrators from afar. Brasilia governor and longtime Bolsonaro ally IBANEIS ROCHA confirmed on Twitter that Torres has since been fired, while Rocha himself also received a 90-day suspension.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has found refuge in the USA, where he was even allegedly spotted last week at arguably America’s most enjoyable food market: Publix.
The previous Brazilian president has denied involvement within the raid, tweeting that rioters went too far.
President JOE BIDEN made a joint statement with Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR and Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU condemning the violence in Brazil today, but he has yet to say whether Bolsonaro could be permitted to stay in the USA. Some lawmakers are already calling for his extradition.
National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters Monday that “the democratic institutions of Brazil will hold, the need of the people in Brazil shall be respected. The freely elected leader of Brazil will govern Brazil and won’t be deterred, or knocked off target by the actions of those people.” He said the U.S. has not received any request from Brasilia about Bolsonaro.
But greater than early January political violence and former leaders camping out in Florida, Abramovay says the USA and Brazil have something else in common.
“Brazil and the U.S. are the one two countries which have defeated authoritarian leaders through elections,” he said. “Due to resistance from civil society, they’ve been capable of defeat those leaders and have a second likelihood to attempt to stop extremism fed by disinformation. And I don’t know if we’re gonna have one other likelihood.”
U.S. EYEING WAGNER GROUP’S MOVES: Top U.S. officials are increasingly tracking the movements and efforts of the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group outside of Ukraine as Moscow continues to make use of it to launch influence operations in Africa and Europe, our own ERIN BANCO reports.
Last month the Biden administration downgraded classified intelligence saying Russia is counting on the Wagner group — founded by Russian oligarch YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN — in Ukraine to recruit prisoners and launch offensives in the town of Bakhmut.
But U.S. officials are also gathering intelligence related to the group’s activities in countries equivalent to the Central African Republic, Mali and Serbia, in line with cables obtained by POLITICO, where Russia is using Wagner to fight anti-Putin sentiment and defend government mining interests with troops and weapons.
A NEW WAY TO DEAL WITH THREATS: The Defense Department is overhauling its approach to countering biological and chemical weapons, as potential adversaries equivalent to Russia and China rush to create threats which might be easier to make use of and may evade traditional defenses, our own LARA SELIGMAN and Erin report.
Officials are launching a latest plan to develop medical treatments, vaccines and private protective equipment that may adapt to a variety of evolving biological and chemical threats, said IAN WATSON, DoD’s deputy assistant secretary for chemical and biological defense.
“We see what now we have to arrange for, for the National Defense Strategy, for the pacing threat of China and Russia,” Watson said. “We see not only the technology, the intel, the intent, and likewise the potential impact it will should our forces if we don’t prepare.”
RUSSIA CLAIMS DEADLY STRIKE, NO EVIDENCE: Officials at a faculty in Ukraine forged doubt on Monday on Russia’s claims that a missile strike killed lots of of Ukrainian troops there last week — despite there being no evidence of casualties, the Associated Press’ VASILISA STEPANENKO reports.
Russian officials said missile strikes hit two temporary bases holding 1,300 Ukrainian troops, killing 600 soldiers. They specifically named a vocational school within the eastern city of Kramatorsk as being struck.
But when AP reporters got to the scene, all they saw were blown out windows with locals inside cleansing up glass, not soldiers’ stays. The varsity’s deputy director told the reporter that “no one saw a single spot of blood anywhere.” Still, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV wouldn’t budge, denying reports from the bottom and insisting the casualties occurred.
U.K. TANKS TO UKRAINE?:The UK may soon send Challenger 2 principal battle tanks to Ukraine, Sky News’ DEBORAH HAYNES reports.
No final decision has yet been made, though one person told Haynes Britain may ship about 10 tanks.
An announcement may come during a Jan. 20 Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
The deliberation comes after the U.S. and France last week announced they’d send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
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READY FOR WAR: Japanese and U.S. armed forces are tightening their military alliance as Washington and its allies within the region prepare for potential conflict with China, including a war over Taiwan, the Financial Times’ KATHRIN HILLE reports.
Each militaries have “seen exponential increases … just over the past yr” of their operations on the bottom they’d should defend during a war, Lt. Gen. JAMES BIERMAN, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force and of Marine Forces Japan, told FT.
Bierman likened the moves by the U.S. and its Asian allies to Western preparations for conflict in Ukraine following Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015. That helped allies effectively reply to Russia’s invasion last yr, and “we’re setting the theater in Japan, within the Philippines, in other locations,” he said.
Japanese officials will visit Washington to debate strengthening the alliance during talks between the foreign and defense ministers on Wednesday. Those talks will proceed during a summit between Biden and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO on Friday in Washington.
CHINA’S LARGE-SCALE DRILLS AIMED AT TAIWAN:China deployed warplanes and navy vessels near Taiwan as a part of large-scale joint combat strike drills that began Sunday, the Associated Press’ HUIZHONG WU reports.
The exercises coincided with a visit to the island nation on Monday from German lawmakers, including MARIE AGNES STRACK-ZIMMERMANN, who heads the German Parliament’s Defense Committee. The group will meet with Taiwan President TSAI ING-WEN, national security leaders and the Mainland Affairs Council, which handles issues related to China.
From Sunday morning to Monday morning, China flew 57 warplanes and sent 4 ships near the island nation, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said. Nearly half of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait as Chinese officials said the “primary goal was to practice land-strikes and sea assaults.”
CYBERATTACKS COULD BE WAR CRIMES: A top Ukrainian cyber official believes some cyberattacks on Ukrainian critical and civilian infrastructure could amount to war crimes, our own SHANNON VAN SANT reports.
VICTOR ZHORA, chief digital transformation officer on the State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection of Ukraine, said Russia has launched cyberattacks in coordination with kinetic military attacks as a part of its invasion of Ukraine, arguing the digital warfare is an element of what Kyiv considers war crimes committed against its residents.
“Once we observe the situation in cyberspace we notice some coordination between kinetic strikes and cyberattacks, and since the vast majority of kinetic attacks are organized against civilians — being a direct act of war crime — supportive actions in cyber will be regarded as war crimes,” Zhora told POLITICO in an interview.
Ukrainian officials are gathering evidence of cyberattacks linked to military strikes and are sharing the data with the International Criminal Court within the Hague in an effort to support potential prosecutions into Russia’s actions, Zhora said. Academics and experts have been pushing for the ICC to loop in cyberattacks into its war crime investigations for months.
‘DEATH TO KHAMENEI’ POSTS ALLOWED ON FACEBOOK: Meta’s Oversight Board decided that posts on Facebook that appear to call for the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI don’t violate its policy, Reuters’ KATIE PAUL reports.
The board, which is funded by Meta but functions independently, overturned the corporate’s decision to remove posts using the slogan “death to Khamenei.” Such posts don’t violate its rule barring violent threats since the phrase is commonly used to mean “down with Khamenei,” the board argued. The Iranian leader has faced international backlash for cracking down on anti-government protests in recent months.
“It’s a rhetorical, political slogan, not a reputable threat,” the board wrote, urging Meta to develop higher ways of factoring such context into policies.
F-35 FOR CANADA:The Canadian government announced that it’ll purchase 88 F-35s for the Royal Canadian Air Force.
“That is the most important investment within the RCAF up to now 30 years. The estimated investment for this project is $19 billion, which incorporates associated equipment, sustainment set-up and services, in addition to the development of Fighter Squadron Facilities in Bagotville and Cold Lake,” per a news release.
“Today’s announcement marks some of the significant investments within the Royal Canadian Air Force in greater than 30 years,” said FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, the minister of innovation, science and industry.
YVAN BAKER, a member of Canada’s Parliament from the governing Liberal Party who chairs the Canada-Ukraine Parliamentary Friendship Group, told NatSec Every day that he supported the choice. “It’s more necessary than ever that our Armed Forces have the tools that they should keep Canadians protected. Today’s announcement will deliver our Air Force with state-of-the-art jets — and likewise create exciting opportunities for Canadian employees and businesses. We promised to deliver the best jets at the best price for Canadians,” he said, praising Defense Minister ANITA ANAND and others for the move.
GOP FIGHT OVER DEFENSE SPENDING: The deal that brought Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY to power might result in deep defense spending cuts, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.
“Among the many concessions McCarthy made to secure the speakership was a vote on a budget framework that caps discretionary spending at fiscal 2022 levels and goals to balance the federal budget in a decade,” he wrote. “If the Pentagon isn’t spared, reverting to last yr’s budget levels would amount to a roughly 10 percent cut, wiping out a $75 billion increase enacted last month.”
But incoming House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), who harshly criticized the party’s conservative wing in the course of the chaos over the speaker’s gavel, said he’s “not fearful” concerning the deal affecting defense. Incoming House Appropriations Chair KAY GRANGER (R-Texas) and Rep. KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), who is about to chair the highest defense spending panel, also support additional Pentagon funding.
‘IT’S ALMOST WORLD WAR I’: Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine) characterised the situation in eastern Ukraine as “essentially trench warfare,” underscoring what he sees as a must proceed funding the country’s fight against Russia, our own OLIVIA OLANDER reported.
“It’s almost World War I. It’s horrible,” King told “Face the Nation” host MARGARET BRENNAN, lower than a day after coming back from a visit to Kyiv.
The newest aid package from the White House, which incorporates armored vehicles, is designed to cope with this problem, King said. Patriot missiles for air defense will help stop the country’s energy infrastructure from being “pummeled,” he said.
SWEDEN UNSURE ON NATO BID: Swedish Prime Minister ULF KRISTERSSON said his country can’t meet a few of Turkey’s demands as a way to be admitted into NATO, The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN reported.
“Turkey each confirms that we did what we said we’d do, but in addition they say they need things we are able to’t and don’t want to offer them,” Kristersson said at a security conference in Sweden.
It’s “unimaginable to know” whether Turkey will ratify the Nordic nation’s application before Turkey’s upcoming election, the prime minister said. For months, Turkey has threatened to dam Sweden’s and Finland’s application to NATO, citing ties between the 2 countries and Kurdish separatist groups.
‘A DAMN MESS’: Over a thousand names on the newly constructed monument within the National Mall honoring Korean War service members who died in combat are spelled incorrect, The Recent York Times’ DAVE PHILIPPS reports.
“It’s only a rattling mess — stuffed with old bookkeeping errors and typos,” HAL BARKER, a historian who, along along with his brother EDWARD BARKER JR., maintains a web-based trove of knowledge on the conflict called the Korean War Project, told the Times.
In all, they estimate there are 1,015 spelling errors. There’s also 245 names of service members who died in circumstances entirely unrelated to the war, including a Marine who lived for 60 years following the war and had eight grandchildren, they are saying. About 500 additional names ought to be listed but aren’t.
— TARA VARMA is now a visiting fellow on the Brookings Institution where she’ll concentrate on French and European foreign policy issues. She was the top of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Paris office.
— OLGA STEFANISHYNA, POLITICO: Half-year candidate: An updated have a look at EU-Ukraine negotiations
— MARK DUBOWITZ, Tablet: Obama’s Anti-Imperialist Fantasy Bears Bitter Fruit
— JAMES HOLMES, 1945: Is China a Mahanian Sea Power?
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies and GitHub, 10 a.m.: Government Policies for Open Source Software
— The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 11 a.m.: Aerospace Nation: Combatant Commander’s Perspective with retired Air Force Gen. TOD WOLTERS
— The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12:30 p.m.:The state of the worldwide terror threat in 2023
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine: Recovery, Reconstruction, and Modernization
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