TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s economy likely expanded way more slowly within the fourth quarter in comparison with the prior quarter attributable to increased global economic headwinds denting demand for technology which is a key export, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew just 1.3% in October-December versus a yr earlier, the poll of 20 economists shows, after it expanded 4.01% year-on-year within the third quarter.
Policymakers have said they expect full-year 2022 growth of around or lower than 3%, slower than the 6.45% logged for 2021. That was the fastest rate in over a decade because it expanded 10.25% in 2010.
Economists’ forecasts for preliminary GDP data due on Wednesday varied widely from a contraction of 0.1% to growth of three.5%.
GDP last yr peaked within the second and third quarters, with the fourth quarter hit by weakening electronics demand, and in addition coming off a high base, First Capital Management analyst Chengyu Liu said.
“Recent economic data released by america can also be weak,” Liu added. “It is predicted that Taiwan’s GDP in the primary and second quarters of this yr is not going to be good, with growth in the primary quarter just one.1%.”
Demand for Taiwanese goods has been hit by COVID-19 controls and outbreaks in China, in addition to soaring global inflation and tightening monetary policy.
The economy in China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner, expanded 2.9% within the fourth quarter year-on-year, and three.0% for the complete yr of 2022, badly missing the official goal of “around 5.5%”.
Taiwan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in December. Exports dropped 12.1% by value last month from a yr earlier to $35.75 billion, the bottom level in 20 months.
Taiwan is a key hub in the worldwide technology supply chain for giants reminiscent of Apple Inc, and residential to the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC).
Taiwan’s preliminary figures can be released in a press release with minimal commentary. Revised figures can be released a number of weeks later, with more details and forward-looking forecasts.
(Poll compiled by Madhumita Gokhale, Susobhan Sarkar and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by Roger Tung; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
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