This was not how the season was speculated to go for the Ottawa Senators. After a splashy offseason that saw Ottawa trade for Alex DeBrincat and sign Claude Giroux, the hype surrounding the Senators was louder than it had been in years.
But then the NHL season began, and all of the positivity quickly dissipated because the Senators got off to a different slow start. Ottawa is in last place within the Atlantic Division with a 10-14-1 record.
Are there any signs that things may turn around for the Sens against the Stars at 8:30 p.m. ET in Dallas, Texas, on Thursday?
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Senators vs. Stars (8:30 p.m. ET) prediction
Perhaps essentially the most bewildering a part of Ottawa’s early season struggles is that its offense has not been as much as snuff. The Senators are built to attain with a top-six that features Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson, and Alex DeBrincat, but Ottawa is averaging just 3.08 goals per game, which is nice enough for 18th within the NHL.
Goals have been particularly tough to return by of their last 10 games, because the Sens are putting up just 2.6 goals on average in that span.
The excellent news is that Ottawa’s predictive metrics and expected indicators look more encouraging than its actual results. The Sens are averaging 2.92 expected goals per 60 minutes and 12.4 high-danger scoring probabilities per 60 minutes over their last 10 contests, but their 3.8 shooting percentage at 5-on-5 (which is definitely the worst mark within the NHL over this span) is weighing down their results.
Coming into the season, Ottawa’s defense and goaltending looked like they might be the team’s Achilles’ heel, but the overall consensus was that this team would have the ability to attain enough to assist paper over a few of those flaws. That hasn’t been the case currently, but they need to begin to positively regress as this season goes on.
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However, the Dallas Stars are a team that’s prone to trend in the opposite direction. Dallas is a solid team that tilts the ice in the correct direction generally, however the Stars pace the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage and their 3.11 goals per 60 minutes is nearly a half-goal higher than their 2.72 xGF/60.
It’s fair to argue that the Stars have the most effective scoring lines within the NHL, so that they’ll all the time outscore their underlying numbers, but when the Sens can contain the Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski line, they’ll have an honest probability of pulling the upset.
The Senators have severely underwhelmed relative to their preseason expectations, but that is buy-low opportunity on a team that ought to start trending in the correct direction.
Senators vs. Stars pick
Ottawa Senators +165 (FanDuel)