STAFF: Well, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for being here today.
It’s my pleasure to introduce Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley. The secretary and the chairman will deliver opening remarks, after which they’ll have time to take just a few questions. I’ll moderate those questions and call on journalists.
Secretary Austin?
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Thanks, Patrick.
Good afternoon, everyone.
We have just accomplished our seventh meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and it has been one other highly successful session.
Now, we were meeting today as Russia continues to focus on Ukraine’s civilians and bombard its energy grid, but Russia’s deliberate cruelty only deepens our resolve, and we’ll proceed to support Ukraine’s bedrock right to defend itself and defend the rules-based international order.
Yesterday, we saw reports of a deadly explosion in Poland near its border with Ukraine. I spoke last night to my Polish counterpart, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Blaszczak, and I conveyed my deep condolences to the Polish people and to the family members of those that were killed. I also underscored America’s ironclad commitment to defend Poland. We have now full confidence within the Polish government’s investigation of this explosion, and so they’ve been conducting that investigation in knowledgeable and deliberate manner, and so we cannot get ahead of their work. And we’ll stay in close touch with our Polish counterparts, in addition to with our NATO allies and other valued partners.
We’re still gathering information, but we’ve got seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was more than likely the results of a Ukrainian air defense missile that, unfortunately, landed in Poland, and regardless of the final conclusions could also be, the world knows that Russia bears ultimate responsibility for this incident.
Russia launched one other barrage of missiles against Ukraine specifically intended to focus on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. This tragic and troubling incident is one more reminder of the recklessness of Russia’s war of selection. And Ukraine has a bedrock right to defend itself, and we’ll proceed to face in solidarity with the people of Ukraine as they defend their country.
And we were joined today — again today on the on the contact group meeting by my good friend, Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s minister of defense, and by deputy chief of defense, Lieutenant General Moisiuk. And I spoke with General Reznikov by phone before this morning’s contact group meeting about yesterday’s explosion in Poland, and we’ll remain in close consultation as we move forward.
Ukraine’s commanders have shown tremendous leadership and tenacity, and so they updated the contact group this morning on the present battlefield dynamics and on Ukraine’s most urgent self-defense needs. Ukraine’s troops proceed to consolidate their gains on the battlefield as they head into the winter, and the contact group continues to push hard to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses within the face of Russia’s ongoing barrages.
I’m pleased to have the option to report that the NASAMS air defense systems that we sent to Ukraine at the moment are operational, and their performance thus far has been very impressive. The NASAMS systems had a one hundred pc success rate in intercepting Russian missiles because the Kremlin continues its ruthless bombardment of Ukraine, including yesterday’s attacks. We’re also working to secure more critical equipment to guard and repair Ukraine’s energy infrastructure after Russia’s indefensible attacks.
We also heard a crucial update from General Cavoli, our supreme Allied commander in Europe. I’m confident that the training efforts spearheaded by the USA and plenty of other members of this contact group will equip the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the abilities that they should consolidate their gains and to seize recent opportunities on the battlefield.
I’d also prefer to acknowledge the European Union’s vital efforts here. The E.U.’s training program across Europe will do an excellent deal to strengthen what other countries are doing bilaterally. Also like to acknowledge Germany and Poland for his or her leadership on this larger mission, and let me thank the U.K. for pledging to coach one other 19,000 Ukrainian troops next 12 months.
And the contact group also discussed vital industrial base initiatives to sustain our security assistance to Ukraine. Let me also thank the department’s Acquisition and Sustainment Team, in addition to the co-host of the National Armaments Directors, a working group under the contact group auspices. And all of those initiatives help prepare the Ukrainians to consolidate their gains through the winter and to arrange to seize recent initiatives within the spring, and you’ll be able to see this contact group’s ongoing unity and commitment in a number of the announcements that its members made.
I’d prefer to thank Sweden for coming forward today with a considerable $287 million package of assistance to Ukraine. This package includes key capabilities, including an air defense system that may bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s ongoing ruthless attacks. And Spain has promised to send two more HAWK launchers and missiles, and Canada is stepping up with its largest — with its latest tranche of $500 million in assistance, and Canada stays certainly one of the lead donors of winter gear. Germany has advanced much-needed donations of air defense, artillery and MLRS ammunition, and Greece also announced a crucial donation of 155 millimeter ammunition, and Poland has committed additional artillery and tank ammunition, in addition to short-range air defense capabilities.
And so these contributions will make an actual difference, and so does the coordination of our security assistance that this contact group makes possible. So we’ll proceed to deepen our work together. And the contact group has met seven times this 12 months and every meeting has produced tangible results that help Ukraine defend itself and its residents. And you’ll be able to see that progress in Ukraine’s victories in Kharkiv and Kherson. Over the weekend, the world saw Ukrainian forces liberate Kherson, demonstrating once more the determination of the Ukrainian people to live free in their very own country.
Now, our resolve is simply strengthened by Russia’s indefensible attacks on civilian targets, and we’ll proceed to face together in common purpose because no member of this contact group desires to live in a world where big countries bulldoze their peaceful neighbors, and we cannot just accept Putin’s imperial aggression and erosion of international norms as some sort of recent normal. As an alternative, we’ll proceed to get up for Ukraine’s inalienable rights to defend itself. We’ll proceed to strengthen our unity and resolve. We’ll proceed to point out the ability of partnership, and we’ll proceed to bolster Ukraine’s Armed Forces by rushing them the capabilities that they should defend their country, and we’ll proceed to assist the people of Ukraine of their fight for freedom.
Thanks very much, and I’ll turn it over to General Milley for his opening comments.
GENERAL MARK A. MILLEY: Thanks, Secretary Austin. Appreciate that and I appreciate your leadership as we gather today, this morning, for the seventh consecutive convening of the Ukrainian Contact Group, which we have been doing every month, as you already know.
And thanks also to all of the ministers of defense on the market who participated and all of my counterparts, all of the CHOD’s (Chief of Defense) that participated. And other senior representatives from almost 50 countries showed up at this meeting this morning and to proceed to participate in these discussions, that are very, very productive.
The mission of the group stays clear — to support Ukraine as they counter the illegal and unprovoked Russian aggression and to proceed to produce Ukraine with the capabilities mandatory to defend their sovereignty.
Through these contact group sessions and other close coordinations that I actually have and the Secretary has with our counterparts — that I talk over with General Zaluzhnyi weekly and my staff continually talks to his staff — we proceed to answer Ukraine’s battlefield requirements and their needs for — their means — of fighting for his or her freedom.
It is a war of selection — it is a war of selection for Russia. They launched into an amazing strategic mistake. They made a selection in February of this 12 months to illegally invade a rustic that posed no threat to Russia. In making that selection, Russia established several objectives. They desired to overthrow President Zelenskyy and his government. They desired to secure access to the Black Sea. They desired to capture Odessa. They desired to seize all of the solution to the Dnipro River, pause, after which proceed to attack all of the solution to the Carpathian Mountains.
In brief, they desired to overrun all of Ukraine, and so they lost. They didn’t achieve those objectives. They failed to attain their strategic objectives and so they at the moment are failing to attain their operational and tactical objectives.
Russia modified their war goals in March and starting of April. Their war of selection then focused on the seizure of the Donbas, the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. That was their operational objectives and so they failed there. Then they modified again and expanded to seize Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The strategic reframing of their objectives, of their illegal invasion have all failed, each certainly one of them. And we have just witnessed last week Russia’s retreat from Kherson. They retreated across the Dnipro River, they moved to more defensible positions south of the river. Their losses as a result of Ukrainian success and skill and bravado on the battlefield have been very, very significant.
And it’s clear that the Russian will to fight doesn’t match the Ukrainian will to fight. On the battlefield, Ukrainians’ offensive up in Kharkiv has been very successful, where they crossed the Oskil River and so they have moved to the east and are near the town of Svatove.
There may be a major ongoing fight down in Bakhmut immediately and within the vicinity of Siversk and Soledar, where the Ukrainians are fighting a really, very successful mobile defense. There is proscribed contact immediately in Zaporizhzhia and limited contact in and across the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. And as we already discussed, Kherson’s offensive has already been successful.
So across the complete front line trace of some 900 or so kilometers, the Ukrainians have achieved success after success after success and the Russians have failed each time. They’ve lost strategically, they’ve lost operationally, and I repeat, they lost tactically.
What they’ve tried to do, they failed at. They began this war and Russia can end this war. Russia could make one other selection, and so they could make a selection today, to finish this war. Nevertheless, Russia is selecting to make use of their time to try to regroup their forces and so they are imposing a campaign of terror, a campaign of maximum suffering on the Ukrainian civilian population as a way to defeat Ukrainian morale.
The Russians are striking throughout the depth and breadth of all of Ukraine with air-launched cruise missiles, with Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, and with other forms of munitions. They’re striking the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and it has little or no military purpose.
While assessments are ongoing, yesterday’s strikes looked like they launched at the least 60 missiles and so they could have launched upwards of 90 and even perhaps 100, and we’ll have higher assessments in the times ahead. But it surely was likely the most important wave of missiles that we have seen because the starting of the war.
These missiles, again, they targeted intentionally and damaged civilian power generation facilities to cause unnecessary suffering with the civilian population. We assess now that over 1 / 4 of Ukrainian civilians are without power.
The deliberate targeting of the civilian power grid, causing excessive collateral damage and unnecessary suffering on the civilian population, is a war crime. With the onset of winter, families will likely be without power, and more importantly, without heat. Basic human survival and subsistence goes to be severely impacted and human suffering for the Ukrainian population goes to extend.
These strikes will undoubtedly hinder Ukraine’s ability to look after the sick and the elderly. Their hospitals will likely be partially operational. The elderly are going to be exposed to the weather. Within the wake of unrelenting Russian aggression and incalculable human suffering, Ukraine will proceed to endure. Ukraine isn’t going to back down. The Ukrainian persons are hard, they’re tough, and most of all, they’re free and so they wish to remain free.
Ukraine goes to proceed to take the fight to the Russians. And I just had a major conversation with my Ukrainian counterpart and he assures me that that’s the longer term for Ukraine.
As Ukraine continues to fight, air defense capabilities have gotten critical for his or her future success. An integrated system — an integrated air defense system, an integrated air and missile defense system, is what’s mandatory as Ukraine repels Russian aerial attacks.
And a good portion of today’s conversations in today’s meeting with almost 50 countries focused on how we, as a world coalition, can provide the suitable mixture of air defense systems and ammunition for Ukraine to proceed its control of the skies and forestall the Russians from achieving air superiority.
To combat continued Russian strikes, last Thursday, the USA announced $400 million in additional commitments to support Ukraine, and people capabilities included missiles for the HAWK air defense systems, which is a complement to what Spain has recently committed. There’s other air defense systems included in that $400 million package, together with ground systems resembling up-armored Humvees, grenade launchers and extra HIMARS ammunition and plenty of other pieces of apparatus.
Wars are usually not fought by armies; they’re fought by nations. This war is fought by the Ukrainian people, and it’s fought by the Russian people, and it is a war that Russia’s leadership has chosen to place Russia into. They didn’t should do that, but they did, and so they have violated Ukrainian sovereignty and so they violated territorial integrity of Ukraine. It’s in complete contradiction to the fundamental rules that underlined the United Nations Charter established at the tip of World War II. That is one of the crucial significant attempts to destroy the rules-based order that World War II was fought all about, and we, the USA are determined to proceed to support Ukraine with the means to defend themselves for so long as it takes.
But at the tip of the day, Ukraine will retain — will remain a free and independent country with its territory intact. Russia could end this war today. Russia could put an end to it immediately, but they will not. They are going to proceed that fight. They are going to proceed that fight into the winter as best we are able to tell, and we, the USA, on the direction of the president and the secretary of defense, we’ll proceed to support Ukraine for so long as it takes to maintain them free, sovereign, independent with their territory intact.
The president of the USA has been very, very clear to us: that it’s as much as Ukraine to come to a decision how and when or in the event that they negotiate with the Russians, and we’ll proceed to support them so long as it takes. The US will proceed to support Ukraine with the very best possible equipment to position them on the battlefield to present them positions of strength against the Russians, and that can also be true of all the opposite nations that attended the meeting today. There may be an absolute sense of urgency, an absolute sense of determination on the a part of the entire member states that attended our meeting today, and I can inform you, the cohesion and coherence of the organization is complete and the resolve is high.
Ukrainians are usually not asking for anyone to fight for them. They don’t desire American soldiers, or British, or German, or French, or anybody else to fight for them. They are going to fight for themselves. All Ukraine is asking for is the means to fight, and we’re determined to offer meaning. Ukrainians will do that on their timeline, and until then, we’ll proceed to support all the best way for so long as it takes. It is obvious to me and the contact group today that that isn’t only a U.S. position, nevertheless it is a position of all of the nations that were there today. We will likely be there for so long as it takes to maintain Ukraine free. Thanks, and I welcome your questions.
STAFF: Mr. Secretary, Chairman, thanks very much, gentlemen. First query will go to Associated Press. Tara?
Q: Thanks. Mr. Secretary, President Zelenskyy just denied that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile that landed in Poland. How are you certain that this was possibly a Ukrainian air defense missile and was not a Russian missile?
SEC. AUSTIN: Thanks, Tara. To begin with, the investigation remains to be ongoing, and Poland is conducting that investigation. We’re assisting in any way we are able to. We do have some experts on the bottom there helping Polish leadership. We have now full confidence in Poland’s ability to conduct this investigation in the correct way, and until that is complete, again, I feel it’s — it might be premature for anybody to leap to conclusions, and I do know that Ukraine has offered to participate and assist in any way they will, as well.
So we cannot get ahead of, you already know, what — of the investigation, but you already know, our information supports what President Duda said earlier in his preliminary assessment, was that this was more than likely, more than likely, a results of a Ukrainian air defense missile. But we’ll let the investigation play out here.
Q: So at this point, are you confident in saying that this was not a Russian missile?
SEC. AUSTIN: We’ll let the investigation play out, after which once the outcomes are released, we’ll be confident in every thing. But again, we — our information supports what President Duda has said earlier.
Q: After which, Chairman Milley, after this strike occurred, did you reach out to your Russian counterparts, or did some other military officer reach out to their Russian counterparts to guard against escalation? And if not, why not?
GEN. MILLEY: There have been — our — I do this through my staff to set the calls up. The short answer is yes, some attempts were made. No success with the Russian counterpart. Did have — I did talk over with my Ukrainian counterpart immediately, General Zaluzhnyi. Talked to him several time, in actual fact. Also, Polish counterpart and several other other CHOD’s (Chief of Defense) in Europe. And exactly what the secretary said. Investigation’s ongoing. There’s professionals there to do the forensics, you already know, all of the debris that is in and across the impact site and so forth and so forth, and really shortly, we’ll know all of the facts, and we just don’t them right this second.
Q: So Russia didn’t take the decision?
GEN. MILLEY: Right. My staff was unsuccessful in getting me linked up with General Gerasimov. That is correct.
STAFF: Let’s go to next query — ABC, Luis Martinez?
Q: For Mr. Secretary — for the chairman, actually, I’d identical to to follow up on Tara’s query initially, because in his remarks, President Zelenskyy cited a conversation together with your counterpart, General Zaluzhnyi, saying that he had confirmed to him that it was not a Ukrainian missile. Based in your conversations with him today, was there a disconnect there? After which I’ll follow with one other query.
GEN. MILLEY: Yeah, I’m not going to speak about it — he and I, our agreement between one another isn’t to speak in regards to the substance of the conversations that we’ve got. We have now conversations several times every week, and we acknowledge that we’ve got the conversations, but we do not discuss the substance of the conversation. So I actually have to honor that, and I’ll proceed to honor that.
But I can inform you that immediately, the investigation’s ongoing. These are skilled investigators. There may be a debris field there. There’s other forms of information which are — are going to be available that — that come from various technical means. And I believe very shortly we may have very confirmed data as to what the purpose of origin is, the purpose of impact, what the angle of the — the weapon system was, the flight trajectory. All of the main points are going to be known in due time, nevertheless it’s pretty early, actually, within the investigation. So we’ll know that, and the secretary will know that. President Biden will know that, and we’ll all get informed here shortly by the investigators. And Poland has put together a team. They’ve lead, and so they’ve put together a team of skilled investigators to do this.
Q: Thanks.
Mr. Secretary, yesterday was sort of the truth of the speculation that has been happening for months about how NATO might respond if a Russian missile went into NATO territory. On the other side, the USA has been very careful not to offer weapons systems that may reach into Russia. What about Crimea? If the USA HIMARS — you already know, supplied HIMARS systems are in a position to reach inside Crimea recurrently, is that a priority, given what we saw yesterday?
And a follow-up, sir, to your comments about — earlier from last week about the potential for discussions placed on by — a decelerate within the fighting, for instance, through the winter — it feels like the comments that you just’re making today in regards to the winter are that the Ukrainians are going to proceed very strongly. Is — are you pulling back out of your comments from last week, that you just see a chance for negotiations with the Russians?
GEN. MILLEY: No, I feel — I feel the Ukrainians should keep the pressure on the Russians, you already know, to the extent that they militarily can, but winter gets very, very cold. And the natural tendency is for tactical operations are going to naturally, probably decelerate.
And immediately, what we’re seeing is the lines from Kharkiv all the best way all the way down to Kherson, for essentially the most part, are starting to stabilize. Now, whether meaning they will likely be stable throughout the winter or not, no one knows — no one knows for certain. Come January, February, that ground probably will freeze, which could lend itself to offensive operations.
So there may very well be plenty of activity within the winter, but typically speaking, due to weather, the tactical operations will decelerate a bit. And I feel that, you already know, President Biden and President Zelenskyy himself has said that there will be a — at the tip of the day, there will be a political solution.
So if there is a decelerate within the actual tactical fighting, if that happens, then which will develop into a window possibly — it could not — for a political solution or a — at the least the beginnings of talks to initiate a political solution. In order that’s all I used to be saying.
Q: And Crimea, sir?
SEC. AUSTIN: Yeah. First, let me just agree with what the Chairman just said, by way of there — there may be a — there probably will likely be a decelerate in the autumn and going into winter. The autumn’s a muddy season, as you already know, and so is the spring.
So when the bottom hardens, trafficability will probably improve, after which we’ll be — we might even see more activity. But I might remind everyone that this war began in February. So it — you already know, winter doesn’t mean that we’ll stop fighting or — or the Ukrainians are going to stop fighting. I actually, just like the Chairman, imagine that they will not.
And so we’ll do every thing inside our power to ensure that they’ve the means to perform their goals and objectives. And along that line, the goals and objectives of this fight are the Ukrainians. They are not — they are not ours. And so we cannot — have not prescribed to the Ukrainians what they will and can’t do. And so our focus is to proceed to offer them the means to achieve success of their endeavors. And — and in order that’s my response to the query on Crimea. Again, the — Crimea is a — is a difficulty to be thought through and sorted out by the Ukrainian leadership.
STAFF: Okay, let’s go ahead — Helene, Recent York Times?
Q: First, for General Austin — so with winter coming —
SEC. AUSTIN: It’s a foul habit. You retain calling me “General” but —
(Laughter.)
Q: — ingrained in my head.
SEC. AUSTIN: Yeah.
Q: Secretary Austin, do you agree then with General Milley’s comments in Recent York last week, that Ukraine cannot achieve a military victory, as defined by driving Russia out of all of its territory, including Crimea, and subsequently should use winter as a chance to barter?
SEC. AUSTIN: I — I — again, having the Chairman here, I feel it’s fair to —
(Laughter.)
— to permit him to actually provide context for his comments.
I feel — and — and you’ve got heard me say this before — now, there are countless numbers of those who have been amazed and astonished by what the Ukrainians have completed. And so I won’t presuppose what’s possible or not possible for them.
What I’m focused on is just ensuring that they’ve the means to do two things. First is to guard themselves and their civilian population from a number of the things that we have seen here recently, with the aerial bombardments. The second thing is to enable them to attain their goals and objectives on the bottom as they proceed to attempt to take back their sovereign territory.
So we’ll proceed to support them, and again, I feel, up to now, we have seen them give you very achievable goals and objectives. We have seen a really successful counter-offensive, each in Kharkiv and likewise in Kherson. And I feel they’ll proceed to maintain the pressure on the Russians going forward.
And by way of what’s an excellent time to barter, we have said repeatedly that the Ukrainians are going to come to a decision that and never us. And we’ll support them for so long as it takes.
Now, we just spent almost 4 hours with our colleagues there within the Ukraine Defense Contact meet — Group meeting. It was amazing to me what number of ministers of defense, on their very own, said “we’ll do that for so long as it takes.” And so I proceed to see unity, I proceed to see resolve, and that is very, very encouraging. And I feel it’s encouraging for Oleksii Reznikov and his team to listen to that as well because, as you already know, they’re within the meeting as well. So yeah.
GEN. MILLEY: So, Helene, I’ll make a few comments. First, on the Russians —
Q: I still have an issue for you though.
GEN. MILLEY: Okay, but let me — let me —
SEC. AUSTIN: In order that’ll be, like, 4 questions.
(CROSSTALK)
GEN. MILLEY: — let me provide help to out with this one first. So start with the Russians — Ukraine’s a reasonably large country. It — this isn’t a small piece of turf. And the probability of Russia achieving its strategic objectives of conquering Ukraine, of overrunning Ukraine, the probability of that taking place is near zero. I can suppose theoretically it’s possible, perhaps, I assume, but I do not see it happening, militarily. So I just don’t see that taking place.
But they do currently occupy about 20 percent of that — of Ukraine. So that they occupy a chunk of ground that is about 900 kilometers long and, I do not know, probably about 75 or 80 kilometers deep. So it isn’t a small piece of ground.
And so they invaded this country with upwards of 170, 180,000 troops in multiple field armies, combined arms armies, and so they have suffered an amazing amount of casualties, but he’s also done this mobilization and called up additional people. So the Russians have reinforced and so they have — they still have significant Russian combat power inside Ukraine.
Now, Ukraine’s had great success within the defense. They did an amazing job in defeating the Russian offensive. It’s incredible what they were in a position to do. After which they went on the offensive originally of September and so they had great success up in Kharkiv and so they’ve had higher success even down in Kherson, as you simply witnessed.
But Kherson and Kharkiv, physically, geographically, are relatively small in comparison with the entire, in order that that — the military task of militarily kicking the Russians physically out of Ukraine is a really difficult task. And it isn’t going to occur in the subsequent couple of weeks unless the Russian army completely collapses, which is unlikely.
So, by way of probability, the probability of a Ukrainian military victory defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to incorporate what they define or what the claim is Crimea, the probability of that taking place anytime soon isn’t high, militarily. Politically, there could also be a political solution where, politically, the Russians withdraw, that is possible. You must negotiate from a position of strength. Russia immediately is on its back.
The Russian military is suffering tremendously. Leaders have been, you already know, their leadership is absolutely hurting bad. They’ve lost plenty of causalities, killed and wounded. They’ve lost — I won’t go over exact numbers because they’re classified, but they’ve lost an amazing amount of their tanks and their infantry fighting vehicles. They’ve lost plenty of their fourth and fifth-generation fighters and helicopters and so forth and so forth.
The Russian military is absolutely hurting bad. So, you would like to negotiate at a time once you’re at your strength and your opponent is at weakness. And it’s possible, perhaps that there will be a political solution. All I’m — all I’m saying is there is a possibility for it. That is all I’m saying.
STAFF: Okay, we’ve got time for only a couple more. Go to VOA, Carla Babb.
Q: Thanks, gentlemen, each for doing this. Mr. Secretary, you stressed that the USA and their allies are committed to Ukraine for so long as it takes. How long do you’re thinking that Russia can proceed this war with its current arsenal and its current personnel? And the way much has Iran and North Korea’s weapons prolonged their ability to wage this war?
And, Mr. Chairman, thanks. You thoroughly answered my query with each Luis and Helene, so I will ask you an issue on China, if I could. After the meeting with President Biden and President Xi, have you ever seen any indications that China’s has modified its ambition to manage Taiwan? And, you already know, the last time the National Defense Strategy was rolled out the Pentagon said America’s military edge was eroding. Now that this recent one has rolled out, is America’s military edge still eroding to China?
SEC. AUSTIN: So, thanks, Carla.
And by way of how long Russia can sustain their effort, that is left to be seen. I feel the Chairman just gave a really accurate and compelling description of sort of where the Russians are immediately. They’re — they’ve some problems. They’ve had problems because the very starting of this, attempting to sustain their efforts. Those problems have only develop into more acute. They’ve lost plenty of people. And as vital, they’ve lost plenty of vital military gear. So, the numbers of tanks that they’ve lost, the numbers of armored personnel carriers, pretty staggering numbers.
As vital, the numbers of precision guided munitions that they’ve rifled through on this endeavor is striking. But, they will not have the option to breed those munitions in a short time, because there are trade restrictions on their — which have prevented them from rapidly gaining microchips and other things that required to provide these sorts of munitions. And so, it could take years for them to restock that inventory as much as the purpose that they were before they began this conflict.
We have seen them struggle with having enough munitions to fight the best way that they wish to fight, so that they’re reaching out to Iran, they’re reaching out to North Korea. I do think that those countries will probably provide them some capability.
And so for that reason I do not think this will likely be over anytime soon. Our — you already know our goal, our requirement is to ensure that we proceed to offer Ukraine with the means to do what’s mandatory to prosecute their campaign.
And so that they should proceed to maintain the pressure on the Russians going forward. And I feel winter fight favors the Ukrainians.
We pushed, you already know, enormous amounts of winter gear into Ukraine, due to countries like Canada and others who’ve really been very, very generous. Russia however, I mean they’re fighting in another country. Ukrainians have challenged their supply lines.
It’ll be difficult for them to get the kinds of drugs in to their troops that they should have the option to fight effectively. And so I feel the Ukrainians may have the upper hand on this fight as they’ve immediately but that they will proceed to keep up that upper hand going into the winter.
Similar to we saw them operate in February of last 12 months, they know the land, they will — they will pull things from their local communities and so they’ll be prepared for this — for this winter weather. And I do not think that the Russians will likely be as prepared and so they’ll proceed to struggle to get things into their troops using the provision lines that they currently have.
And the Ukrainians will proceed to pressure those supply lines there.
Q: And do you’re thinking that the Russians can hold out? Or will it take them the years that you just say it will take for them to completely resupply?
SEC. AUSTIN: I — I do not think the Ukrainians are going to permit them to carry out. I feel the Ukrainians are going to proceed to pressure them. And so this battlefield dynamic will change — you already know proceed to vary.
The Ukrainians know that, you already know, allowing them to rest and refit and rearm is a mistake. That is a — that is a — an operational mistake and I do not believe they are going to make that mistake. And I — you already know my goal is to ensure that they’ve a method to do what’s mandatory to insure that they do not hold out.
GEN. MILLEY: And also you had two questions for the secretary. So I get to bye on mine. So look, on China, as quickly as I can say it, China is the pacing threat, as we describe it, and DOD is an element of the national defense strategy. It was defined within the previous months, defined in the present ones as a pacing threat.
And what can we mean by that. We mean that China is the one country on the market that geopolitically has the ability potential to be a major challenge to the USA and so they are. There — based on their population, their technology, their economy and nano and a bunch of other things, China is the best geopolitical challenge to the USA.
And China isn’t shy about their goal. They wish to be the primary power within the globe by midcentury, by 2049. And so they want to do this military, diplomatically, informationally, economically, and so forth and so forth. So that they wish to be primary by mid-century.
By the 19 — by the 2030s, mid-2030s, they’d previously said they wish to be number on regionally. So that they wish to have a military that out does the USA military regionally by the mid-’30s. They previously said that.
After which they advanced to that goal to 2027. So that they advanced that goal in I feel it was two party congresses ago or one party congress ago. And what they’ve said is that they wish to be equal to or superior militarily to the USA. That is only five years away. So that they’re working on that and so they’re working on that very, very hard.
But we are usually not static. And we’re working on it.
Without delay, the USA military is — without query, despite whatever criticisms people have, the USA military is essentially the most lethal warfighting machine on Earth, bar none. The US military is primary and we intend to remain primary.
And our task — militaries only have two tasks. We have now a single purpose, really, which is to — either to arrange for war or to fight a war, and we’re laser-focused on that. And we intend to remain primary.
China isn’t going to be a greater military than the USA military is but they are going to try but they are not going to get there. We will likely be primary five years from now, 10 years from now, and 50 years from now. We are usually not going to let China take primary. They’ve made gains in a wide range of areas, in cyber, in space, and and land, sea, and air.
So what — a peasant army of — largely infantry-based. You already know, after I was commissioned in 1980, that is sort of what Deng Xiaoping had when he made his reforms. So he had a really large dismounted infantry, peasant-based army, roughly. They’d some tanks but not much.
After which they got wealthy. They made a large sum of money with a ten percent rise over run, dropped all the way down to seven percent, perhaps it is going to come all the way down to three or 4 percent, however the GDP allowed them to purchase a military, and so they imagine that it’s their day within the sun, they imagine it’s, once more, time for the Middle Kingdom to be primary.
So that is what they’re shooting for and we are usually not going to permit that to occur. The US military is primary now and we’re going to be primary five years from now. 2027 isn’t going to be the date that China becomes primary. And we’ll stay primary the complete time.
And so long as we remain primary, then we’ll deter the war that folks worry about, an excellent power war between China and the USA. So long as we’ve got the military capability, we’ve got the need to make use of it, your adversary knows it, you then’ll deter that war, and — but the bottom line is to have the military capability, and we intend to remain primary.
STAFF: Time for one final query. We’ll go to Nikkei, Ryo Nakamura.
Q: Hi, thanks very much for taking my query.
To the Secretary first, President Biden and President Xi essentially agreed to keep up their open lines of communications. Do you expect China will resume a few of their military channels — military-to-military channels — they suspended in August after Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan? And are you planning to go to together with your Chinese counterpart during your visit to Cambodia next week?
And to the Chairman, also on China, the — President Xi consolidated his power within the Chinese Communist Party and he’s now surrounded by his loyal advisors. How much are you concerned that President Xi might make an ill-advised or ill-informed decision to take Taiwan by force, as President Putin did within the leading as much as the invasion into Ukraine?
Thanks very much.
SEC. AUSTIN: Thanks, Ryo. As you’ve got heard me say quite a few times, I feel it’s really vital for big countries with — with significant military capability to talk over with one another. And as I told Minister Wei after we talked — we met face-to-face in — in Singapore, that we wanted to work to maintain the lines of communication open in — that helps with crisis management, it helps with quite a few things.
And so my hope is that they’ll open up their communications channels that — not only at my level but on the Chairman’s level and that — at the extent where our — our combatant commander, Admiral Aquilino, can engage along with his counterparts as well.
So that you’re right. We’ll each be in Cambodia here within the near future. I haven’t any announcements to make by way of any scheduled meetings but there may be a chance there, and so we’ll see — we’ll see how things play out.
GEN. MILLEY: So I feel initially, you already know, President Xi is — I do not know him. I’ve never talked to him, and he’ll make decisions based on what he thinks is in his national interest. But as best I can tell, he’s a rational actor. I feel he evaluates things on cost, profit and risk, and I feel that he would conclude that an attack on Taiwan within the near future can be an excessive amount of risk, and it will end in a strategic, really, debacle for — for the Chinese military. And I feel it will throw off their China dream of being the primary economic and military power and so forth.
So would he do it? Who knows? I do not know. But I can inform you that we watch it closely. We’re militarily prepared, and certainly one of the keys now’s to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself, and there are plenty of lessons learned coming out of the Ukrainian war. There’s lessons learned for Taiwan. There are lessons learned that we’re learning. There’s lessons learned European countries are learning, and there is lessons learned that President Xi and the Chinese military are learning.
And certainly one of the things persons are learning is that war on paper is a complete lot different than real war. And when blood is spilled and other people die and real tanks are being blown up, things are somewhat bit different. There’s plenty of friction and fog and death in combat, and for somebody who has — for a military that hasn’t fought in combat since fighting the Vietnamese in 1979, they’d be playing, you already know, a really, very dangerous game to cross the straits and invade the island of Taiwan. They haven’t got the experience, the background to do it. They have not trained to it yet. They do piece-part training. We watch it very, very closely, what number of — how much amphibious capability they’ve, how much airborne capability they’ve.
Now, they might bomb it. They might missile it. They might attack Taiwan in that sense, but attacking and seizing the island of Taiwan across the straits, putting troops on the island of Taiwan, that could be a very difficult military task to do. You’ve a big city of Taipei with three or 4 million people, with the suburbs, about seven million people. You’ve very complex terrain with mountains. Most of Taiwan is a mountainous island. So it’s a really, very difficult military objective, a really difficult military operation to execute, and I feel it’ll be a while before the Chinese have the military capability and so they’re able to do it.
Now, that may very well be mistaken. That might — an incident could occur. Some form of political thing could occur in a moment in time, and all of the choices would change very, very rapidly. But I feel that the Chinese can be high risk to tackle an operation like that, and I feel it will be unwise. It might be a political mistake, a geopolitical mistake, a strategic mistake much like what the strategic mistake is that Putin has made in Ukraine.
SEC. AUSTIN: I will be traveling with the — with a few of you later this week and into next week, but for many who I won’t see between now and Thanksgiving, I would like to take this chance to wish you and your families a comfortable Thanksgiving, and on behalf of the Department of Defense, thanks for what you proceed to do for our nation. Thanks very much.
STAFF: Thanks very much, ladies and gentlemen. That is on a regular basis we’ve got for today.