Moderna stock jumps after Oppenheimer upgrade on pipeline potential

Shares of Moderna closed greater than 13% higher on Tuesday after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to “outperform,” saying the Covid vaccine maker could market five products by 2026.

The upgrade follows a dismal 2023 for Moderna, whose only commercially available product is its Covid shot. The corporate’s stock has long been tied to its vaccine, and its shares fell nearly 45% last 12 months as demand for Covid products plummeted worldwide. 

Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh said the corporate’s Covid sales could hit a low point in 2024 as a consequence of aspects similar to vaccine fatigue. However the firm expects Covid vaccine sales to rise in 2025 and beyond as education about Covid and spending on awareness in regards to the disease increase.

Singh was much more upbeat about Moderna’s pipeline potential, highlighting a handful of possible product launches over the following 12 to 18 months that would boost sales in 2025. 

That features a potential approval this 12 months for Moderna’s experimental vaccine that goals to guard older adults from respiratory syncytial virus, which usually causes mild, cold-like symptoms but more severe cases in seniors and youngsters.

The corporate has said that the Food and Drug Administration will make a call on its RSV vaccine in April. 

Moderna’s experimental flu vaccine could also win approval in 2024 or 2025, Singh said. In September, the corporate said its shot produced a stronger immune response against 4 strains of the virus than a currently available flu vaccine in a late-stage trial. 

Singh also said Moderna could file for FDA approval of its experimental personalized cancer vaccine in 2024 or 2025. The corporate may apply under the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway, which allows for expedited approval of medicine that treat serious conditions and fill what the agency calls an “unmet medical need” based on a selected clinical trial metric.

Moderna and its partner Merck are currently studying the shot together with Merck’s blockbuster therapy Keytruda for the treatment of patients with a deadly skin cancer called melanoma and other cancers. 

Also on Tuesday, Moderna reiterated in a shareholder letter that it expects to see sales growth in 2025. The corporate highlighted its RSV vaccine and the possible approval for its combination shot targeting Covid and the flu, which could come “as early as 2025.”

Moderna in its third-quarter earnings release in November said it expects revenue to fall to $4 billion in 2024 before it grows again in 2025. The corporate expects to “break even” in 2026. The corporate also said in November that it will only hit the low end of its sales forecast of $6 billion to $8 billion for 2023, reflecting weaker demand for Covid vaccines.

Moderna has also said it plans to launch as much as 15 products in the following five years — a goal it first outlined during its annual research and development day in September.

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Correction: Moderna shares fell nearly 45% last 12 months. An earlier version misstated the share.