Welcome back to a different PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!
We now have a pair of pitchers and two hitters to research, so let’s dive in.
Tony Gonsolin lower than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Gonsolin has been available for a lot of the 2023 season, and with the various injuries LA’s rotation has handled, that’s all of the Dodgers can ask for straight away.
Gonsolin might just be profiled as a mean major-league pitcher at this point. He’s sporting a good 3.78 ERA, but his xERA is roughly a full run higher, and his FIP is greater than 5.00.
Tony has struck out left-handed batters at a good 23% clip, but he owns only a 19% K rate against right-handed batters.
The Toronto lineup is affected by powerful right-handed batters, as RotoGrinders projects the Blue Jays to roll out no less than six of them against him.
He’s been a bit more predictable across the last month, throwing his four-seam fastball roughly 45% of the time to hitters.
Predictability and pitching to contact don’t pair well together.
Gonsolin has his work cut out for him against this stout American League lineup on Wednesday.
Kyle Bradish greater than 28.5 Pitcher Fantasy Rating
Bradish may very well be essentially the most improved major leaguer that no person outside of Baltimore is talking about.
His ERA is nearly sub-3 and he hasn’t given up greater than two earned runs during any start in about six weeks.
Bradish only walks 6% of hitters, has a really respectable K rate, and owns a 46% ground-ball rate.
His slider has been his pitch of alternative across the last month – one which this Philly lineup has collectively struggled with this season.
I feel he’s in position to get through a reasonably clean game and a likelihood at a top quality start, which makes this number very attainable for him.
Cody Bellinger greater than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Rating
Lance Lynn is getting absolutely clobbered by left-handed hitters in 2023, yielding a 14% barrel rate, a .317 ISO, and a 50% hard-contact rate.
This sets up well for one in all the most popular hitters in baseball, Cody Bellinger, who’s alleged to be on the move on the trade deadline.
Bellinger is having one heck of a season and eventually looks like that former MVP all of us remember.
He’s hitting a career-high .314, striking out just 16% of the time, and has a dozen steals on his 2023 resume.
Bellinger also has the bottom 2023 ground-ball rate vs. right-handed pitchers within the Chicago projected lineup.
There are many ways Bellinger could accumulate points on this matchup, and I believe this number is a bit too low.
Kyle Tucker greater than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Rating
Give me the lefty-lefty matchup here. Tucker has been among the best five hitters in baseball for the reason that All-Star break.
Opposing pitcher Andrew Heaney has been rather more attackable with right-handed batters this season, but he’s still not implausible against lefties.
He’s walking a putrid 19% of them, so not only should Tucker see favorable hitting counts, but he’s a serious threat to steal when he gets on base.
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Despite holding left-handed hitters to respectable power metrics, Heaney continues to be yielding a 50% hard-contact rate to them, while Tucker owns a monstrous 68% hard-contact rate, a .235 ISO, and a 9% walk rate against left-handed pitchers.
Heaney doesn’t often go too deep into the sport and the Texas bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in baseball.
There are many “outs” for Tucker to get us where we have to be on this matchup.