Sports betting has officially launched in North Carolina, with seven books opening at Noon ET on Monday, March 11.
There are greater than 10 welcome offers to money in on, and it’s a superb time of yr for those offers to develop into available – college basketball conference tournament week offers wall-to-wall motion.
Still, in the event you’re begging for gambling opportunities with all of your free bonus money, let me direct you toward two Tar Heel State college basketball programs value betting on Tuesday.
Davison vs. Fordham odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
No. 13 Davidson | -3.5 (-110) | -166 | o134.5 (-115) |
No. 12 Fordham | +3.5 (-110) | +138 | u134.5 (-105) |
Davison vs. Fordham prediction
(11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+)
The Wildcats of Davidson, N.C, gave us some electric March Madness Cinderella runs behind Steph Curry.
But these Wildcats are nothing like that team.
After posting a 10-3 non-conference record with a win over Maryland, the Wildcats went 5-13 in A-10 play, losing five straight to finish the yr and find yourself because the conference tournament’s No. 13 seed.
The injury to David Skogman hurt the Wildcats badly. He was the team’s leading scorer (13.5 points per game) before missing the season’s final 12 games. The Wildcats won only three of those games.
Davidson is seven points per 100 possessions worse offensively with Skogman off the ground, shooting 6% worse from deep – his 47% 3-point shooting clip sometimes carries the Wildcats.
Nevertheless, the Wildcats swept Fordham this yr, beating the Rams without Skogman within the second meeting.
Ultimately, I don’t love this matchup for Fordham, which posted a similarly poor 6-12 conference record en path to the A-10 tournament’s No. 12 seed.
The Rams run a perimeter-oriented isolation offense, with Kyle Rose, Japhet Medor and Will Richardson firing away on off-the-dribble 3s. They rank second within the A-10 in 3-point rate.
Nevertheless, the Rams made almost nothing, shooting 32% from deep in conference play. They generate loads of open jumpers (first within the league in Open 3 Rate) but don’t have the shot-makers to capitalize (last in ShotQuality’s Shot Making metric).
And I don’t think Fordham may have a neater time canning shots against Davidson’s defense, which allows loads of 3s (eleventh within the A-10 3-point rate allowed) but closes out on every thing (first in Open 3 Rate allowed).
That played out across the 2 head-to-head meetings, with the Rams shooting 13-for-54 from 3 (24%).
On the opposite end of the court, Fordham runs a drop-coverage defense that effectively denies 3-point shots (rating first within the A-10 in 3-point rate allowed) by overplaying ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wings, funneling them into the mid-range.
Nevertheless, the Rams can’t prevent rim-runners, rating within the seventh percentile of D-I teams in at-the-rim field goal attempts per game allowed (21) and fourth-to-last within the A-10 in paint points per game allowed (33).
While Fordham is a solid rim defense per possession, it wasn’t enough to carry off Davidson’s rim-based attack in two meetings. Davidson ranks top 70 nationally in at-the-rim field goal attempts per game (25), and the Wildcats scored 66 combined paint points across two head-to-head matchups with the Rams.
It’s a nasty schematic matchup for Fordham, and that ought to play out in the ultimate meeting. Our Motion PRO Model projects the Wildcats as 5.5-point neutral-court favorites over the Rams, and I agree with that math.
Davidson vs Fordham Pick
Davidson -3.5 (-110, FanDuel) | Play to -4 (-110)
Louisville vs. North Carolina State odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
15 Louisville | +8.5 (-102) | +320 | o149.5 (-110) |
10 North Carolina State | -8.5 (-120) | -420 | u149.5 (-110) |
Louisville vs. North Carolina State prediction
(4:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
The Wolfpack began the yr so promising, surging to a 7-4 conference record.
But they collapsed down the stretch, losing seven of nine to slip to the No. 10 seed within the ACC Tournament.
Luckily, the Wolfpack will face the lifeless Louisville Cardinals in the primary round. The Cardinals have won one game away from home this yr.
Louisville managed to maintain it close with the Pack in Kentucky earlier this season, losing by six as 7.5-point ‘dogs. However the Cardinals needed an uncharacteristic 8-for-15 (53%) 3-point shooting performance to maintain the sport close.
Betting on College Basketball?
With out a repeat performance – which is very unlikely for a 30% 3-point shooting team – the Cardinals don’t match up well with the Wolfpack.
Louisville is an isolation- and post-heavy offense, leveraging five double-digit scorers in those sets.
Nevertheless, the Wolfpack are a well above-average defense against each sets, rating top-60 nationally in isolation PPP allowed (0.78) and post-up PPP allowed (0.77). It’s pretty hard to attain over the 6-foot-9, 275-pound DJ Burns on the rim.
In the primary meeting, Louisville scored a combined 13 points on 15 isolation and post-up sets, a pedestrian 0.87 PPP.
Conversely, NC State can also be a post-up heavy offense behind Burns, who is sort of unstoppable on the low block.
He’s too big and too crafty along with his footwork.
Moreover, the Wolfpack heavily utilize the quick-twitched point guard DJ Horne in pick-and-roll sets. While they aren’t overly efficient in those sets, which may not matter against Louisville.
Louisville ranks 229th nationally in post-up PPP allowed (0.81) and 349th in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.21), a death sentence against Burns. The Cardinals rank 358th in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (1.05), a death sentence against Horne.
In the primary meeting, Horne and Burns scored a combined 40 points on 9-for-15 (60%) shooting from 2-point range. The Cardinals scored a combined 43 points on 37 post-up and pick-and-roll sets, suitable for 1.16 PPP.
Again, the Cardinals kept it inside single digits in the primary meeting, but only because of an unsustainable shooting performance at home.
The Wolfpack should cruise to a dominant double-digit victory in a neutral-court rematch with typical shooting splits.
Louisville vs. North Carolina State pick
North Carolina State -8.5 (-120, FanDuel) | Play to -9 (-110)