Once we approached the beginning of the 2023 MLB season, fantasy baseball players were instructed to pay close attention to the brand new rules being implemented, specifically as to how they’d affect stolen bases.
After years of dramatic decline in steals (and understanding the worth of dominating a category with such a premium), there was a large increase this season and MLB is on the verge of registering its highest totals since 2012.
Though stolen bases have change into more abundant, their importance has not lessened. The steals category continues to be some of the movable in roto league standings, and any likelihood you get to accumulate someone with speed needs to be a possibility taken.
Through the primary two months of the regular season, we’ve seen a median of 45 stolen base attempts per team with an overall success rate of 79.2 percent — which supplies us a median of roughly 35.4 steals per team.
At this pace, we’re taking a look at near 3,200 stolen bases for the season, but with some teams being more aggressive than others and 13 teams posting success rates in excess of 80 percent, those numbers could grow to a level we haven’t seen because the MLB record was set at 3,585 back in 1987.
With that knowledge, it’s time to check out your league’s standings within the stolen base category. Every league is inherently different, but typically, you will note one or two teams sitting atop the category, one or two at the underside and the remaining of the league separated by perhaps 8-10 stolen bases on average. Which means with the addition of only one strong base-stealer, you’ll be able to vault up your league standings in a really short period of time. Add two and you possibly can end up in the highest three of the category by the All-Star break.
The bottom line is to focus your attention on the teams which are each aggressive on the bases and have a high success rate. The Rays and Pirates have the best variety of stolen base attempts, however the Athletics, Guardians and Orioles usually are not far behind. Each has a hit rate of 82 percent or higher.
You may attempt to trade for high-end players akin to Wander Franco or Esteury Ruiz, but you’ll have more success searching for out low-key speedsters akin to Taylor Partitions or Ji Hwan Bae. If you will have a surplus of power or pitching, start making some offers. If you happen to lack a real surplus of one other category or trading is just too difficult, you continue to have quite a lot of options in your waiver wire.
The Diamondbacks are calling up outfielder Jake McCarthy, a player everyone drafted expecting a high stolen base count. He struggled early, but appeared to right the ship during his demotion to the minors and appears primed to see regular at-bats.
Arizona ranks twelfth in stolen base attempts with a team success rate of 83.7 percent. Twins shortstop Royce Lewis is getting back from injury soon, and though the Twins haven’t been too aggressive because they lack a real burner, the teenager flashed loads of speed within the minors.
Though you never wish to focus too heavily on only one category, paying close attention to stolen bases will likely be paramount to your success. Don’t just assume you will likely be tremendous because steals are so abundant. With a lot potential movement within the steals category, teams which are being attentive will pass you by before you already know it, and anyone who has played fantasy baseball knows, catching up is rather more difficult than keeping pace.
Howard Bender is the pinnacle of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to Fantasy-Alarm.com for all of your fantasy baseball advice.
