A busy election cycle means hundreds of thousands of voters will solid ballots that may determine the balance of power for the following two years, but political experts say Mother Nature may need a say during which races may even see the next turnout.
On Tuesday, all 435 seats within the House of Representatives are up for grabs, and voters will settle on 35 seats within the Senate.
Most of the races are considered to be a dead heat, and it could come all the way down to turnout that may resolve who controls the legislative branch.
Dr. David Richards, an associate professor and political chair on the University of Lynchburg, is watching a slew of races closely and said that the smallest impacts could significantly influence who will claim victory.
“Higher turnout means inevitably you’ve less of the party faithful. The smallest of things could impact turnout, and that even includes the weather,” Richards said.
A collaborative study published in The Journal of Politics found that the correlation between bad weather and voter turnout could also be greater than a fluke theory that’s trotted out as a talking point every November.
The authors found that voter participation dropped off about one percent per inch of rain, and snowfall decreased turnout by nearly half a percent for each inch of accumulation.
Research published within the journal Frontiers in Psychology found that voter turnout increased by 0.14% for each 1.8 °F jump in temperature.
Moreover, the research found that warmer temperatures generally increased the likelihood that voters kept the incumbent party in power.
“Generally, the trend of increasingly early voting means weather on Election Day plays a smaller and smaller role, but there are some caveats. The less dedicated often now wait until Election Day in the event that they vote in any respect, meaning any weather setback, like rain or cold, can be more more likely to delay these more casual voters,” Richards stated.
Listed below are the five things to know concerning the forecast for Election Day.
It’s going to be warm in a lot of the country
Most communities east of the Rockies will see temperatures either at or above average due partly to an enormous ridge of high pressure.
Temperatures within the 60s could reach as far north as South Dakota, and the Ohio Valley is predicted to see temperatures reach the 70s on Election Day.
Richard believes the nice and cozy weather could help keep turnout high in several eastern states but warns resulting from early voting, there’ll come a degree when turnout begins to taper off well ahead of the scheduled precinct closing times.
“In Pennsylvania, Georgia and Florida voting has been strong, but due to sheer numbers, turnout on Election Day can be lower since you run out of interested voters in some unspecified time in the future,” Richards said.
There can be a lunar eclipse
History can be within the making within the skies as the primary visible lunar eclipse on a serious Election Day within the U.S. takes place.
The moon will briefly be covered by the Earth’s shadow because the sun and the moon align with our planet.
The eclipse is predicted to start around 5:17 a.m. EST and peak just before 6 a.m. on Tuesday.
The celestial event can be over before the polling precincts open at 7 a.m. on the East Coast, but Richards warns people might hark back to the saying there “should be a full moon” if something unexpected happens within the political world.
People frequently associate odd occurrences with the total moon, but there’s little truth to the folklore.
“Studies have found minor effects on circadian rhythms. Significant enough they’ve found patterns but not significant enough that force people got nuts or something just like that,” Richards said. “If individuals are listening to it, they’re going to say, ‘okay, here’s an election where these two events are happening.’ It’s an interesting coincidence but nothing greater than that,” Richards said.
A storm system will keep the Southeast coast unsettled
A non-tropical low-pressure system is predicted to develop over the southwest Atlantic and meander off the coast of the Southeast.
Depending on the precise location of the low and a pressure gradient that forms north of the middle, blustery conditions and scattered showers are expected to develop.
If the low ventures near shore, scattered showers from the Carolinas to Florida are possible.
The impacts can be more of the nuisance variety and cause nor’easter conditions along the coast.
Severe weather will not be anticipated, but winds could keep Tuesday blustery.
The FOX Forecast Center said the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential disturbance for the prospect of tropical or subtropical development, but even when the system earns a reputation, the impacts are expected to stay the identical.
West Coast could cope with various types of precipitation
A big storm system may very well be underway across the Rockies and the West that might cause some turbulent weather.
Forecast models show rain in lower valleys and snow in higher elevations.
The weather system will enable a continued stormy pattern and help the cooler weather prevail for big parts of the region.
The Desert Southwest is certainly one of the few areas that may likely escape significant impacts from the precipitation, but temperatures can be below average.