EAGAN, Minn. (AP) — As Republican Tyler Kistner’s closing ad aired last month in some of the competitive congressional districts within the U.S., Vickie Klang felt that something was missing.
The 58-year-old veterinary technician and self-described independent voter watched because the 30-second spot showed grainy black-and-white images of President Joe Biden with two-term Democratic Rep. Angie Craig superimposed alongside him. The narrator ominously described life in America as “dangerous and unaffordable” due to an alliance between the 2 Democrats.
Absent from the ad, Klang thought, was anything near an answer beyond electing Kistner.
“You’re never telling me what you are going to do for the state or the country,” Klang recalled. “That’s an enormous turnoff.”
Klang ultimately backed Craig, contributing to a 5 percentage point win for a Democratic incumbent whom Republicans spent greater than $12 million to unseat. From Maine to California, Republicans faced similar unexpected setbacks with the small but crucial slice of voters who don’t discover with either major party, based on AP VoteCast, a sweeping national survey of the electorate.
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Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That is far wanting the 51% that Democrats scored with the identical group in 2018 once they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing amongst independents helps explain partially why Republicans flipped just nine seats, securing a threadbare majority that has already raised questions on the party’s ability to manipulate.
Some Republican strategists say the finding is an indication that messages that resonate during party primaries, including searing critiques of Biden, were less effective in the overall election campaign because independent voters were trying to find greater than just the opposition.
“You’ve got to inform them what you’re going to do,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster and senior adviser to House Republicans who had been critical of GOP candidates’ messaging strategy this yr. “By some means the Republican campaigns managed not to try this. And that’s an actual significant issue.”
Within the northern reaches of Minnesota‘s 2nd congressional district, a swath of lakes and onetime farm country teeming with development near the Twin Cities, greater than a dozen independent voters echo Winston’s assessment.
Unlike Klang, who grew up in a union Democratic household, Steve Stauff of Shakopee, 20 miles west, was raised in a rural, conservative Republican home. The 2 share a recent history of voting for Republican and Democratic statewide candidates, in addition to for independent candidate for governor Jesse Ventura in 1998.
But Kistner’s message, like those of other losing Republican challengers in targeted races, appeared aimed more at Republicans than swing voters: simply linking Craig with Biden, whose job disapproval had outpaced approval, and Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, widely unpopular with Republicans.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy unveiled a campaign proposal in September titled “Commitment to America,” billed as a GOP agenda. Nevertheless, the proposal, a group of repackaged goals corresponding to increased domestic petroleum production, was light on details and mentioned little in the course of the campaign.
“We were just being told, ‘Pelosi bad, Biden bad, due to this fact Craig bad,’ as an alternative of hearing ‘That is my plan to represent this district,’” said Stauff, a 42-year-old sales representative. “For those who don’t bring me solutions to whatever problems you’re thinking that we’ve, how can I take you seriously?”
VoteCast suggests that independent voters distinguished between the issues facing the U.S. and Biden’s culpability for them. While few independents said the economy is doing well and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden’s handling of it, independents were barely more more likely to say inflation is the results of aspects outside Biden’s control than that Biden is responsible, 51% to 47%, based on the survey.
But that nuance was often missing from the GOP’s political message.
An October Kistner ad included the claim, “Feeling hopeless? Thank Joe Biden and Angie Craig,” some extent that did not land with Kathy Lewis, an independent voter from Lakeville, Minnesota.
“I understand how that’s so hard on people,” said Lewis, a 71-year-old school board member within the Republican-leaning exurb southwest of St. Paul. “I’ve never really believed the president, irrespective of who it’s … ever really controlled the inflation. They might have had an effect on it, but they didn’t really control it by hook or by crook.”
Democrats did significantly higher amongst true independents and those that lean toward a celebration than they’ve in recent midterms once they have also held the White House, based on evaluation of Pew Research Center post-election surveys of self-identified voters in 2014, 2010 and 1998.
While questions remained into the autumn concerning the role the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning the 1973 landmark abortion rights precedent Roe v. Wade would play within the election, several 2nd District Minnesota independents cited it as a driving issue of their support for Craig.
About 7 in 10 independent voters who don’t side with either party think abortion ought to be legal in most or all cases, based on VoteCast, which also found many citizens across party lines were hesitant to support candidates who were considered extreme.
Pamela Olson, an independent from rural Farmington, Minnesota, said she doesn’t typically vote on a single issue. Nor did she vote for Craig in 2020. That modified with the court’s decision, in light of the court decision, Craig’s support for abortion rights and Kistner’s opposition usually.
“It’s about freedoms on this country. And I believe it is totally as much as a lady and her doctor,” said Olson, a 56-year-old engineer. “There must be a selection for those individuals, not for any individual else to let you know what to do.”
Besides the contention that GOP candidates didn’t give attention to independents, Winston suggests that independent voters may be hesitating to lurch toward the choice within the wake of the turmoil of Donald Trump’s presidency.
“Change must be something they’re willing to vote for, as opposed to only the kneejerk response that ‘that is bad so I’m just going to go one other direction,'” Winston said.
Fingerhut reported from Washington.
Find the AP’s coverage of the 2022 midterm elections at https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections. Learn more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://www.ap.org/votecast.
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