(ANALYSIS) We’re in the midst of one other election season and in full mud-slinging mode. Elections are an annual occurrence, to at least one degree or one other, however the vote that may dominate this Nov. 8 are often called the midterms. It’s when a majority of seats in each the House and Senate are up for grabs, allowing for the party within the minority (on this case the Republicans in each chambers) to potentially becoming the bulk.
Midterm elections are also traditionally viewed as referendums on presidents. This takes us to the Catholic vote and its impact on the consequence. This can be a topic that’s receiving little or no mainstream press coverage. As we are saying here at GetReligion: “Hold that thought.”
While inflation and crime will definitely be on the minds of most as they forged ballots, “culture war” issues are very much alive and well. Abortion, especially after this June’s Supreme Court decision that after again made it a state issue after Roe v. Wade was rolled back, will definitely be a problem.
READ: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: Is Either A ‘Culture Warrior’ Or A Wannabe Theocrat
There have been many, many news stories about how the abortion issue will motivate those on the political left to return out and vote following the Dobbs decision. The Washington Post, on Oct. 8, reported on the problem in a news feature that appeared under the headline, “Women powered Democrats within the 2018 midterms. Will they again in 2022?”
After opening with two Colorado women, Robin Kupernik and Elizabeta Stacishin, who had joined forces in 2016 to combat Donald Trump, who was elected to the presidency that yr. That is the feature’s thesis:
Within the 2018 midterm elections, women like Kupernik and Stacishin were a part of a women-led army that modified politics. Women who had never been particularly lively politically worked phone banks, wrote postcards and sent text messages to voters. They were repulsed by Trump and determined to do something about it.
They met in small groups, marched within the streets and went door-to-door to encourage people to vote for Democrats. Their passions were palpable. Most of the congressional candidates they were supporting flipped Republican-held seats, all a part of a political tide strong enough to flush the GOP from control of the House, dealing Trump a serious defeat. The Pew Research Center has estimated that 62 percent of White women with college degrees backed Democrats for the House 4 years ago.
That has turn into the foremost press-coverage storyline of the midterms. Conservatives, after claiming a serious victory within the Dobbs decision, aren’t energized any longer by the problem. Those on the left, nevertheless, are and are poised to stem the bleeding that sometimes occurs when the president’s party is within the White House.
However the story continues with this:
For much of this yr, the political dynamics seemed to be the reverse of 2018 — a rise up against Biden poised to eliminate Democrats’ slim majorities within the Senate and House. History alone suggested that. However the crosscurrents are more varied than they were 4 years ago. Earlier predictions of sweeping Republican gains have been tempered by the changing political climate, thanks largely to the Dobbs decision, though the GOP stays favored to take control of the House. In the ultimate weeks, with concerns concerning the economy still dominant, elections could activate how much sustaining energy the Dobbs decision provides for Democrats or whether it fades within the face of bread-and-butter concerns.
Biden’s approval rankings remain well below 50 percent, though his average rating shouldn’t be as little as it was a couple of months ago. Inflation continues at decades-high levels. Crime in major cities and a few suburban areas is up. The influx of undocumented immigrants gnaws at many citizens. All that continues to push toward Republican victories.
It then goes on to make a problem of Trump and the Jan. 6 riot on the U.S. Capitol.
But what about faith voters and Catholics specifically?
For instance, note that the Washington Post feature, over 6,000 words in length, goes on to discover 4 voter blocs which can be crucial — Blacks, Latinos, working-class white voters and ladies with college degrees.
This story, like many within the mainstream press this season, have touched upon social issues that may drive voters to the polls — on each side of the political spectrum — but religion has once more been largely ignored.
The underside line: Whether it’s on issues like abortion or same-sex marriage, transgenderism and college curriculums, faith voters will play their part. If the recent past is any guide, Catholics will play an outsized role within the outcomes depending on the state, especially within the so-called “swing” states.
We’ve got loads of reporting that surrounds speculation and talking points as seen through the eyes of candidates, pollsters and political experts. The dearth of on-the-ground reporting and the ignoring, as is typical, of Catholics and other faith voters has gotten us here.
In consequence, it’s the Catholic press, across the doctrinal spectrum, that has done a superb job reporting it.
On the progressive America magazine asked the query recently as as to if Catholics would join evangelicals within the “culture war.” Here’s a key takeaway from the piece:
As a big voting bloc that’s “split down the center politically” (in line with the Pew Research Center), Catholics have an outsized role in determining this yr’s results. They’re unlikely to interrupt heavily toward one party or the opposite, but in our current polarized environment, even a small shift could determine whether the Democrats or Republicans can claim victory (and momentum toward the 2024 presidential election). The next are seven questions on Catholic voters, and U.S. voters generally, which may be answered on Nov. 8.
It then went into detail on several issues, but additionally addressed the practice of “ticket-splitting” in states comparable to Ohio, where J.D. Vance, the writer and lawyer who can be a convert to Catholicism, is running for the U.S. Senate. Here is the section on this that might use more mainstream news coverage:
Ticket-splitting, or voting for candidates from different parties for various offices, has turn into much less common over the past couple of many years—in contrast to the late twentieth century, when voters incessantly selected, say, a Republican president and a Democratic senator at the identical time. Since Catholic social teaching doesn’t align exactly with either party, each Democratic and Republican candidates incessantly hope that Catholic voters will cross party lines to support them. Will that occur in large numbers this yr?
Two states with large Catholic populations to observe are Latest Hampshire and Ohio; in each, popular mainstream Republican governors are running on the identical ballot as Republican candidates for senator who’re allied with Mr. Trump (Mr. Vance in Ohio and Don Bolduc in Latest Hampshire). One issue that will factor into ticket-splitting is immigration: In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine has been welcoming toward refugees, while Mr. Vance, his fellow Republican, has taken a more hardline stance, saying in an interview last yr, “I feel we sometimes let in people into the country that don’t make great Americans.”
The National Catholic Reporter, one other progressive publication that’s a must-read, probed the Catholic vote throughout the primaries that took place earlier this yr. It focused on two other states with large Catholic consistencies, which incorporates Pennsylvania. That is long, but essential, but here is the important thing takeaway:
In the important thing swing state of Pennsylvania, Joe Biden clawed the state back into the Democratic column after Hillary Clinton lost it in 2016. He did so partially by outperforming Clinton in those ethnic, Catholic enclaves like Luzerne County and his native Lackawanna County where white working-class voters predominate.
In accordance with John White, politics professor on the Catholic University of America, certainly one of the ways Biden won was “by personalizing the election and tying it to his own cultural values, values he shared with the electorate. And, for Biden, his Catholicism is such an integral a part of that. It really works since it is real.”
White added that while Democrats is not going to win in rural areas with more conservative cultural norms, “you continue to need to point out up and make your case.”
This yr, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan is running for the Senate in Ohio as a sort of young Joe Biden. He, too, is campaigning in areas where Democrats have struggled to draw working-class voters and in rural precincts of the state. Being a Catholic is a giant a part of Ryan’s identity as well.
“Being Catholic, that Catholic identity, Ryan shares that with Biden,” said White. “Nevertheless it’s complicated. It shouldn’t be clear what number of Catholic voters bring their Catholic identity into the voting booth. That sense of identity might be accentuated if the bishops enter the fray, but I think they will not be getting too involved.”
The lesson of last yr for the Catholic hierarchy was that any effort to go after politicians will divide the conference and worry officials in Rome.
For Republicans, fealty to Trump has turn into the defining characteristic of the first contests, and candidates have been obsequious in courting the previous president’s endorsement. Over the weekend, it became clear that Trump has shaped the race but he may not have the ability to find out the consequence. He endorsed Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance and went to the Buckeye state for a rally with the author-turned-politician, but Vance received a decidedly mixed reception from the group.
Polling in recent times has shown that Catholics are split on “culture war” issues, like abortion, depending on where they live and whether or not they attend Mass frequently or not. Nevertheless, ticket-splitting could possibly be common for a lot of Catholics within the midterms, especially relating to balancing pocketbook issues with social ones.
EWTN News has, on the doctrinal right, been superb about reporting on what Catholics think going into the midterms. They’ve also commissioned several polls which have helped create some context and discover trends that might manifest themselves on the polls next month.
Their second of three this election season confirmed that President Joe Biden’s popularity is waning amongst Catholics, a key finding provided that he’s only the second Catholic ever elected president in U.S. history.
EWTN also checked out the Hispanic vote and the shift amongst many in that demographic group away from voting Democrat to Republican this season. That might thoroughly be the most important talking point after the races are called.
The Catholic vote in quite a few states will determine the consequence. It’s this voter bloc that might thoroughly determine an enormous GOP victory come next month.
This post originally appeared at GetReligion.