Following last week’s catastrophic strike from Hurricane Ian, the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring two Atlantic tropical disturbances for possible development within the week ahead.
October ranks because the third-most-active month (behind September and August) for tropical activity within the Atlantic Basin, typically producing about two named storms, one in all which becomes a hurricane. And each other October, on average, one in all those hurricanes intensifies right into a “major hurricane,” achieving Category 3 or higher intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Two current disturbances have the potential to become tropical depressions or storms, one within the central tropical Atlantic and the opposite within the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Let’s break down the forecast for every one and discuss any potential threats they might pose to the US down the road.
Tropical Disturbance No. 1: Central tropical Atlantic
A tropical disturbance centered several hundred miles east of the southeastern Caribbean islands is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that has increased a bit over the past day or so. The FOX Forecast Center has dubbed this technique “Tropical Disturbance No. 1.”
Some gradual development of the disturbance is feasible over the following few days because it moves generally westward at 15 to twenty mph within the direction of the eastern Caribbean Sea.
“In the approaching days, what’s anticipated to occur is that it’s going to be moving right into a more favorable environment, so we’ll be watching that area very closely,” FOX Weather meteorologist Kendall Smith said.
The National Hurricane Center gives Tropical Disturbance No. 1 a low probability of development in the following five days, but those odds could potentially increase beyond the five-day period if conditions turn out to be more favorable within the Caribbean.
Tropical Disturbance No. 2: Eastern tropical Atlantic
A tropical disturbance centered several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to supply disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The FOX Forecast Center has dubbed this technique “Tropical Disturbance No. 2.”
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for some gradual development of this tropical disturbance over the following several days.
A tropical depression is prone to form in the course of the early or middle a part of this week because the disturbance moves westward, then turns northwestward or northward toward the tip of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center gives Tropical Disturbance No. 2 a high probability of development in the following five days.
Will either of those tropical disturbances threaten the US?
A blocking high-pressure system is forecast to construct to the north of Tropical Disturbance No. 1, which should reach the eastern Caribbean Sea by Thursday. Subsequently, the FOX Forecast Center believes the disturbance will keep heading west across the Caribbean, stopping it from turning north toward the US — not less than through the tip of this week.
Tropical Disturbance No. 2 can be not currently a threat to the US, as the pc forecast models suggest it can move toward the northwest or north and remain removed from the US East Coast.
The FOX Forecast Center will keep a detailed eye on each tropical disturbances and warn you of any changes to the forecast.
If either or each of those systems becomes a tropical storm with winds of not less than 39 mph, they may earn the names Julia and Karl of their order of formation.