THE BUZZ: After roughly a billion dollars spent, hundreds of thousands of voters contacted, hundreds of volunteer hours expended and a whole lot of campaign stories immediately buried by the news cycle, we made it: it’s Election Day in California.
Those expecting a Tuesday night climax could also be left wanting: races will remain undecided for days to weeks, due to an expansive voting process that counts ballots mailed by today. That said, listed below are five toplines we’re watching tonight:
1. Is it a Republican wave?
Polling trends portend a disappointing night for Democratic House candidates, puncturing hopes of erecting a California bulwark against a GOP takeover. We’ll see if Republican Reps. Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia, David Valadao, Young Kim and Ken Calvert lose their seats; whether remaining 2018 Democratic seat-flippers Rep. Katie Porter, Mike Levin and Josh Harder hold on; and if Rep. Julia Brownley loses a once safe-seeming seat. Listed below are our final California race rankings.
Democratic supermajorities in Sacramento remain about as certain as Tax Day. However the two-thirds margins could shrink, with a half-dozen state legislative races looking highly competitive and a half-dozen more hovering within the reach category. State and county parties have poured hundreds of thousands into that map.
2. Will ballot initiatives bring surprises?
Many of the statewide measures are likely to be called quickly: Californians are poised to reject sports betting, bolster abortion rights, ban flavored tobacco, refuse kidney dialysis regulations (again) and allocate arts education funding. A push to fund electric vehicles by taxing the wealthy appears to be the one real contest, setting Gov. Gavin Newsom and wealthy opponents against Lyft and environmentalists. Let’s see if the polling missed what’s in voters’ hearts.
3. Does the GOP statewide shutout proceed?
Every cycle, conservatives seek the formula to cracking Democrats’ iron grip on statewide office. They’ve failed the last seven times. Republican former U.S. Attorney Nathan Hochman stays a longshot to unseat Attorney General Rob Bonta. The GOP’s best bet could also be controller candidate Lanhee Chen, who has attracted healthy financial support and enthusiastic coverage as he vies with Democrat Malia Cohen. We’ll see if it’s enough to beat the California GOP’s five-million-voter registration deficit.
4. Whither Los Angeles law enforcement?
The town of L.A. is understandably consumed by the expensive, caustic and tight mayoral battle between Rep. Karen Bass and developer Rick Caruso. But that race has been framed partially by public safety concerns, and voters countywide will make two essential criminal justice decisions: whether to disclaim Sheriff Alex Villanueva a second term, and whether to permit the board of supervisors to fireplace future sheriffs. It was only weeks ago that Villanueva’s deputies raided a supervisor’s house in a spectacle that many saw as political reprisal.
5. What same-party showdowns will shape the Legislature?
Democrats will still run Sacramento. But which of them? Twenty-one different state Legislature races feature same-party showdowns. Some have been among the many cycle’s costliest as interest groups spend to raise allies and stymie foes. Amongst probably the most contested: Dave Jones versus Angelique Ashby in SD-08; Lily Mei versus Aisha Wahab in SD-10; Shawn Kumagai versus Liz Ortega in AD-20; and Jasmeet Bains versus Leticia Perez in AD-35. We even have two showdowns between incumbent Assembly Republicans drawn in together: Tom Lackey versus Thurston Smith and Marie Waldron versus Randy Voepel.
BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. Will all those mailed ballots offset the consequences of a rainy Election Day? Let’s discover. We’ll be up into the wee hours of Wednesday watching the returns are available. See you on late-night Twitter! You too can get savvy live evaluation of races in California and across the country at politico.com, and you may follow our handy election calls bot here.
Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: [email protected] and [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “The large winner of the LA mayor’s race is the consultant who gets the commission on the media buy for Rick Caruso.” Former California GOP leader Jim Brulte, via the Capitol Weekly podcast.
TWEET OF THE DAY:
WHERE’S GAVIN? Planning to be in Sacramento for Election Night.
THE SPEAKER SPEAKS — Pelosi on attack: Political future ‘will probably be affected about what happened,’ by POLITICO’s Olivia Olander: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi repeatedly said her political future will probably be influenced by the recent attack on her husband, in an interview airing Monday on CNN.
— Musk pushes independents to vote Republican ahead of midterms, by POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity: “To independent-minded voters: Shared power curbs the worst excesses of each parties, subsequently I like to recommend voting for a Republican Congress, provided that the Presidency is Democratic,” Musk wrote on Twitter. The tweet garnered over 11,000 retweets and over 71,000 lower than half-hour after it was posted.
COULD CA DECIDE CONGRESS? In the newest installment of the POLITICO Snapchat Show, Jeremy outlines a handful of races across the Golden State that would help resolve which party controls Congress.
THE COST OF CRISES — “Los Angeles Voters Are in a Foul Mood. Will a Recent Mayor Change Anything?” by the Recent York Times’ Shawn Hubler: “As Los Angeles prepares to elect its first recent mayor in nearly a decade, problems which have festered for the reason that pandemic began are taking a psychic toll. In polls and surveys, in addition to in dozens of recent interviews across the sprawling city, Angelenos say they’re exhausted.”
— “Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters,” by NPR’s Melissa Chan: “The fight for Orange County underscores the complexity of the Asian American vote. Demographics are usually not destiny here — each Republican and Democratic strategists can pull data suggesting an AAPI swing by some means.”
AGING THE BALLOT — “On Tuesday, this California city decides if 16-year-olds needs to be allowed to vote,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Connor Sheets: “Ada Meighan-Thiel, a 17-year-old senior at Culver City High School, acted out an age-old teenage ritual as she stood on Marcelo Chamecki’s front porch the week before election day. She was there to attempt to get an adult to take her and her young friends seriously.”
LONG WEEK AHEAD — “Here’s what we’ll — and won’t — know on election night in California midterms,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Savanna Smith, Hanh Truong and Brianna Taylor: “Your vote counts — but when and the way is it counted? California midterm election polls close at 8 p.m. on Nov. 8, and eligible voters have been casting ballots since October. Election Day isn’t what it was once with the wide use of vote-by-mail across america.”
— “A farmworker’s son and a dairy farmer battle to represent the Central Valley in Congress,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Alejandra Reyes-Velarde: “[David] Valadao and [Rudy] Salas represent, not less than symbolically, two of the biggest forces fueling the Central Valley — the farmers who drive the realm’s agricultural industry and the employees who harvest the food that feeds the nation.”
PRICE IS RIGHT — “Inflation is top issue on this week’s midterms,” by CapRadio’s Scott Horsley: “Like a movie monster from the Seventies, inflation is back and drawing crowds at a polling station near you. Rising prices are the primary concern for voters on this yr’s midterm elections, outpacing abortion, crime and other hot-button issues.”
FINDING WATER… “How can California boost its water supply?” by CalMatters’ Rachel Becker: “Where can California get enough water to survive the newest dry stretch — and the subsequent one, and the subsequent? Can it pump more water from the salty Pacific Ocean? Treat waste flushed down toilets and washed down drains? Capture runoff that flows off streets into storm drains? Tow Antarctic icebergs to Los Angeles?
… IN THE PACIFIC?— “They used to call California ocean desalination a disaster. But water crisis brings recent look,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Hayley Smith: “Because the American Southwest barrels right into a recent era of utmost heat, drought and aridification, officials and conservationists are giving recent consideration to the technique of converting saltwater into drinking water, and the role it might play in California’s future.”
MESSY MARKET — “From S.F. to Hawaii and beyond, housing costs are pushing people out of increasingly expensive cities,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Chase DiFeliciantonio: “With San Francisco’s population in decline and a bunch of problems from homelessness to affordability, a recent round of polling by The Chronicle found that roughly a 3rd of those surveyed are more likely to leave in the subsequent three years.”
— “The conservative California county where Prop. 1 may mean nothing for abortion,” by SFGate’s Sam Moore: “The ordeal outlined the vast differences between urban and rural California with regards to abortion — and which Californians face the very best barriers to accessing the procedure, no matter statewide protections.”
SILVER LINING — “Election week storm in California will effectively end fire season,” by the Washington Post’s Diana Leonard: “A winter storm is bringing heavy rain and snow to California, affecting much of the state as people get out to vote on Election Day on Tuesday. The storm could possibly be certainly one of the state’s most vital November storms lately, which is a component of an energetic weather pattern that would help replenish mountain snowpack and effectively end fire season across California.”
— “Poverty drops in California but only due to child tax credit, COVID relief funds,” by CalMatters’ Wendy Fry: “Poverty fell in California in the course of the COVID pandemic, recent data shows, largely resulting from state and national safety net programs, especially the expansion of federal child tax credits. But a deadline to file for those tax credits expires November 17, prompting advocates in California and a number of state lawmakers to sound alarms.”
BIG DAY FOR BIDEN — Biden closes the election with an enormous roll of the dice, by POLITICO’s Jonathan Lemire: Tuesday’s midterm elections will likely dramatically shape Biden’s next two years in office. Republican victories would almost definitely ensnarl the president’s agenda, trigger a slew of investigations and impact Biden’s 2024 reelection decision.
2024 VISION — Specter of midterm wipeout threatens Dem plans to shake up presidential primaries, by POLITICO’s Elena Schneider: The Democratic National Committee is planning to select up an enormous project after the midterm election: shaking up its presidential nominating process and changing the states that get to vote early. But a possible Republican wave on Tuesday could suddenly limit Democrats’ options for upending the first calendar.
OUT OF OFFICE — “Distant work or not? How 4 Bay Area corporations are tackling the post-pandemic workplace,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Carolyn Said: “A growing variety of Bay Area corporations are letting employees resolve whether and when to work at their physical offices. They are saying productivity stays high, while worker satisfaction has soared thanks to raised work-life balance and skill to relocate.”
FOURTH ESTATE — “What Twitter’s changes mean for news organizations,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Wendy Lee: “The complaints, fears and angst surrounding changes at troubled tech giant Twitter began unraveling by itself platform by the very individuals who report the news — journalists.”
— “Silicon Valley Job Cuts Are No Cure-All for Tech’s Falling Stock Prices,” by Bloomberg’s Subrat Patnaik: “Firms corresponding to Meta Platforms Inc. are waking as much as investor demands that they cut costs within the face of a looming recession, but shareholders in search of relief from the relentless tech-stock selloff can only take a lot comfort from that.”
ZOOMING IN — “Which California state departments are most supportive of distant work? Recent data has answers,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Wes Venteicher.
— “Willie Brown’s Boozy Election Day Party Is Back,” by the San Francisco Standard’s Josh Koehn.
— “Meteor can have caused fire that destroyed California home, firefighters say,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Noah Goldberg.
HEADS UP — “Why this could possibly be a nasty flu season,” by SFGate’s Amy Graff.
— “Election Canvassers Want Latinos to Know Voting Is Good for Their Health,” by Kaiser Health News’ Bernard J. Wolfson.
Amazon’s Erin Cohan … L.A. Times’ Jackeline Luna … Katt Riley … Casey Hernandez
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