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Russia is reaching its “breaking point,” in keeping with Estonia’s prime minister, as allies of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN wobble of their support for the war in Ukraine.
The political, economic and military pressure is taking an increasingly large toll on Moscow, Estonian PM KAJA KALLAS told NatSec Each day in a Zoom interview Wednesday. It’s already known that a few of Putin’s friends, including Wagner Group founder YEVGENIY PRIGOZHIN, have privately vented their frustrations to the Kremlin boss. Kallas hinted, though didn’t explicitly say, that Tallinn has intelligence of other offended oligarchs. And there’s public evidence of mounting disappointment on nationalist Telegram channels and state-run television.
The military isn’t completely satisfied either, Kallas said, noting that troops don’t have the requisite gear or weapons to carry territory against Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
“That is why I’m saying that the breaking point is perhaps close: the people around Putin are also feeling the results of this war, they usually usually are not completely satisfied with the outcomes,” the prime minister said.
Kallas has long been one in every of Europe’s most hardline advocates for tightening the vise around Putin. The 45-year-old premier grew up within the Soviet Union, which annexed Estonia after World War II. She heard family stories about how her mother and grandmother were deported to Siberia in an effort to eradicate the Estonian elite.
It explains why Kallas, alongside her Baltic colleagues, continues to push Europe to extend support for Ukraine and thwart Russia’s goals.
“I encourage other leaders to send all of the military [equipment] that they’ve,” she told NatSec Each day. “We now have definitely done it on our side.” She noted that Estonia provided Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles every week before the invasion began.
OLEKSII REZNIKOV, Ukraine’s defense minister, recently told our own PAUL McLEARY that he expects allies to send Abrams tanks and fighter jets, like F-16s, F-15s and Gripens, sooner or later soon.
Kallas hopes her counterparts will grant Reznikov’s wish, saying that most of the political woes plaguing Western countries — inflation, energy insecurity, a rapid influx of refugees — are a results of the war.
“The one response, or the best way out of those other worries that now we have in internal politics, is to place all of the pressure on Russia to finish this war,” she said.
An interesting nugget: NatSec Each day asked if Estonia had seen an uptick in cyberattacks for the reason that war began and particularly since Russia’s rhetoric has turned more aggressive. Yes, she said, though nothing has caused a large disruption or threatened civilians.
She did, nevertheless, offer this tidbit: “Just the opposite day I got two emails. One said that ‘Your blog has been cyberattacked, however it didn’t undergo.’ And the opposite one was that I have been sued by the far-right extremists here. So I used to be like, ‘Okay, these items come together.’”
NO ‘NEAR-TERM’ JCPOA: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said he doesn’t see a “near-term prospect” for a return to the Iran nuclear deal — and that it’s Iran’s fault.
“The Iranians proceed to attempt to inject” items into the deal that don’t have anything to do with nuclear issues, Blinken said, calling those provisions “a dead end.”
“Unless and until they fight to drop those,” the US’ return to the agreement won’t move forward, he told a small group of reporters and experts hosted Wednesday by Bloomberg News.
Moments before his address, the State Department announced latest sanctions on Iran for repressing the women-led protests.
‘MASSIVE NUCLEAR ATTACK’ DRILL: Putin monitored drills on Wednesday that Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU characterised as a simulation of a “massive nuclear strike” in retaliation for a nuclear attack on Russia, in keeping with the Kremlin.
The drills, which involved multiple practice launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, were successful, in keeping with the Kremlin. Moscow notified Washington of the tests prematurely.
The simulation comes as Russian officials push unsubstantiated claims that the opposing country will detonate a “dirty bomb” by itself territory in a false flag attack in charge Russia, escalating tensions as fighting persists. A minimum of two people were killed during a barrage of Russian airstrikes that targeted dozens of Ukrainian villages prior to now day, the Associated Press’ ANDREW MELDRUM reports.
TRIP FOR OIL: President JOE BIDEN insisted that his visit to Saudi Arabia wasn’t about oil. A Tuesday Latest York Times story by MARK MAZZETTI, EDWARD WONG and ADAM ENTOUS makes clear that it really was.
Before the July trip, top administration officials met with their Saudi counterparts to strike a deal. OPEC+ would push up an oil-production increase of 400,000 barrels per day from September to July and August. That production would then increase by 200,000 barrels per day from September to December.
OPEC+ announced its intention to satisfy the primary a part of the agreement on June 2. “That very same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a visit to Saudi Arabia,” per the NYT.
It’s true that Biden fist-bumped with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN to spice up America’s regional standing, especially as Russia and China creep in. But, at the top of the day, it appears an oil arrangement was the principal reason Biden traveled to Saudi Arabia in any respect.
ASEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: The Biden administration will put Russia’s war on Ukraine at the middle of the agenda of next month’s ASEAN East Asia Summit, POLITICO’s China Watcher PHELIM KINE reports.
That features a plan to present Ukraine a seat on the summit table, DANIEL KRITENBRINK, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said on Wednesday. It could be a strong symbol for Ukraine — albeit a bit awkward, on condition that Putin and Chinese President XI JINPING may be in attendance on the November event in Cambodia.
The U.S. desires to be certain that Ukraine “meaningfully participates” and that the summit members “send a robust message that big countries cannot simply take what they need from smaller neighbors,” Kritenbrink said on the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asian Architecture Conference.
Kritenbrink’s comments suggest that the Biden administration sees a chance to channel ASEAN’s concern in regards to the economic impact of the war into leveraging the grouping’s trade and diplomatic heft into the international pressure campaign to punish and isolate Russia.
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DON’T DO IT, KIM: If North Korea performs a nuclear test — because it’s widely expected to within the near future — a joint response from South Korea and its allies can be “decisive,” in keeping with a South Korean official.
The northern neighbor’s latest nuclear policy adopted last month, specifying the scenarios wherein it will use nukes, is “making a serious tension” on the peninsula, CHO HYUNDONG, South Korea’s first vice foreign minister, told reporters Wednesday, the Associated Press’ HARUKA NUGA and MARI YAMAGUCHI report.
Within the event of further escalation, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will use “all the weather of the national power and show an awesome, decisive response to any use of a nuclear weapon by North Korea,” Cho said following talks with Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN and Japanese Vice Foreign Minister TAKEO MORI.
ETHIOPIAN PEACE TALKS: Peace talks to finish the destructive conflict in Tigray have begun in South Africa, marking the highest-level effort yet to call off the fighting that has potentially killed a whole lot of hundreds of individuals, the Associated Press’ MOGOMOTSI MAGOME reports.
On Tuesday, VINCENT MAGWENYA, the spokesperson for South African President CYRIL RAMAPHOSA, said talks began and can likely proceed through Sunday. The discussion is being facilitated by former Nigerian president OLUSEGUN OBASANJO, former South African deputy president PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA and former Kenyan president UHURU KENYATTA.
“There isn’t a military solution to this conflict, and these talks represent probably the most promising approach to achieve lasting peace and prosperity for all Ethiopians,” SecState Blinken said.
MIDTERM ELECTION CONCERNS: An operation influenced by the Chinese government is working to interfere in U.S. midterm elections by posting misinformation and dealing to discourage voters from going to the polls, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).
A report from Mandiant highlighted aggressive efforts from a campaign referred to as “DRAGONBRIDGE” that has produced videos working to dissuade Americans from voting by casting doubt on whether candidates on the ballot can achieve their legislative goals.
The news comes after POLITICO first reported that national security officials inside the Biden administration were planning to warn of multiple threats to the nation’s election security infrastructure from China and Russia.
NEW CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM: Our own BRYAN BENDER reports (for Pros!) that the National Security Agency and other U.S. spy organizations are adopting latest technologies to hurry up the review strategy of classified archived materials, Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES told lawmakers.
“Deficiencies in the present system undermine our national security, in addition to critical democratic objectives,” Haines told Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.), two leading advocates of classification reform, in a previously undisclosed August letter confirming the brand new White House effort.
“This process will engage all key stakeholders, to incorporate the Congress, advocacy organizations, and academic partners, to acquire a wide selection of viewpoints on the challenges related to standardizing information management, classification, declassification, and the control of sensitive information,” she pledged.
BOEING LOSES BILLIONS: Boeing on Wednesday announced heavy charges on a number of military and space programs, leading to a lack of $2.8 billion for the third quarter, Matt reports (for Pros!).
Losses were primarily attributable to higher estimated manufacturing and provide chain costs, in addition to technical challenges “that are expected to proceed longer than anticipated,” Chief Financial Officer BRIAN WEST said during a quarterly earnings call.
“We’re not embarrassed by them. They’re what they’re, and we intend to deliver against those contracts,” CEO DAVE CALHOUN said.
INDUSTRIAL BASE CONCERNS: NATO defense leaders are concerned that the conflict in Ukraine has highlighted how some members are struggling to surge industrial defense capability, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported.
“The Ukraine situation has demonstrated that a lot of … assumptions were incorrect, particularly across the rates of expenditure of munitions and the power to resupply,” said GILES AHERN, head of the Joint Unit on Euro-Atlantic Security Policy on the U.K. Ministry of Defense.
While Ahern worries the UK won’t be as quick to provide weapons to reply to a crisis as rapidly because it desires to, Pentagon industrial base official MATTHEW ZOLNOWSKI cautioned Ukraine’s experience won’t translate to future conflicts attributable to how Kyiv uses weapons in another way.
ANOTHER MENENDEZ PROBE: Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) is under federal investigation… again, two people aware of the inquiry told Semafor’s KADIA GOBA.
People connected to Menendez, who chairs the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, have been contacted by prosecutors in Latest York’s Southern District in past weeks, in keeping with the sources. Thus far, the prosecutors have sent not less than one subpoena.
The case is comparable to an investigation in 2015, the sources said, wherein the Latest Jersey lawmaker was alleged to have helped SALOMON MELGEN, a Florida eye doctor, with government contracts in exchange for upscale vacations and personal jet flights. Menendez’s lawyers argued the pair were just good friends, and the inquiry resulted in a mistrial after the jury couldn’t reach a verdict.
U.S. SANCTIONS IRAN FOR CRACKDOWN: The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 10 Iranian officials in response to Tehran’s crackdown on protests following the death of MAHSA AMINI, the department announced Wednesday.
“Forty days after the tragic death of Mahsa Amini, Iranians proceed to bravely protest within the face of brutal suppression and disruption of web access,” Under Secretary of the Treasury BRIAN E. NELSON said in an announcement.
The actions are paired with the measures from the State Department, which is designating six individuals inside the Iranian government answerable for human rights abuses in light of demonstrations throughout the country.
The response from the U.S. government comes as Iran levied sanctions against DW Farsi for the network’s coverage of protests, the German network reported. Human rights groups estimate greater than 200 people have been killed in Iran for the reason that protests began.
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANTONIO DE LOERA-BRUST has left the State Department, where he was a special assistant to the secretary, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He’s now comms director on the United Farm Staff.
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANDREW COHEN will join the German Marshall Fund as its first-ever managing editor. He previously served as director of communications at Pew Research Center and before that he held the identical job at Bertelsmann Foundation.
— Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia JOHN SULLIVAN is joining Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service as a distinguished fellow.
— DOMINIC BARTON has joined the Eurasia Group as a strategic counselor. Barton was previously the worldwide managing editor of McKinsey and Canada’s ambassador to China.
— DEREK LEEBAERT, POLITICO: Our Foreign Policy Leaders Are a Danger to the World
— International Crisis Group:Stop Fighting Blind: Higher Use-of-Force Oversight within the U.S. Congress
— ROBERT B. ZOELLICK, The Wall Street Journal: Russian Money Can Keep Ukraine Alive This Winter
— SecState Blinken will land in Ottawa Thursday for a two-day visit ahead of next week’s G-7 foreign ministers meeting in Germany.
During his first official trip to Canada, Blinken will discuss the war in Ukraine, Iranian protests and the crisis in Haiti with the country’s leaders, including Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and his counterpart Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY.
— The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.:“No family man: Breaking Putin’s morality myth”
— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.:2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.:A Conversation with CHRIS INGLIS and ANNE NEUBERGER
— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 10 a.m.:“Eurasia’s Evolving Geoeconomics after the Ukraine War,”
— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 p.m.:“Breaking the Nuclear Taboo after 77 Years: Are Putin’s Threats Credible, Crazy or Just Psywar?”
Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a latest defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the following edition of the newsletter.
Due to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who reached her “breaking point” with us way back.
And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who’s unbreakable.