THE BUZZ: Your California forecast for the ultimate week of this election cycle: The political winds are blowing rightward.
California Democrats have long been bracing for a red wave that might wipe out their remaining 2018 House gains and swamp their prospects of reclaiming Republican seats in Orange County, Los Angeles and the Central Valley. They’ve hoped some favorable redistricting outcomes, significant fundraising sums and a Democratic base galvanized by the disintegration of Roe v. Wade could buoy their candidates.
But signals within the homestretch haven’t been encouraging. Forecasters have been moving their predictions toward Republicans within the cycle’s final weeks as outstanding party figures make late efforts to safeguard vulnerable incumbents. Voters proceed to report inflation-laced economic pain and gloominess in regards to the future, which could each bode sick for almost all party.
Our handy POLITICO race tracker has reflected those trends. It recently moved GOP Rep. Mike Garcia’s CA-27 from toss-up to leans-Republican as national Democrats backed off a race once seen as eminently winnable given Garcia’s minuscule 2020 margin. Our prognosticators also see Democratic Rep. Mike Levin as a straight toss-up, erasing Levin’s advantage. The DCCC yesterday put the second-term San Diegan on its “red alert” list of the incumbents who’ve joined snow leopards on the endangered list. President Joe Biden might be in California to campaign for Levin on Thursday.
TWO ON THE MOVE: The trajectories of two SoCal incumbents help capture the landscape.
We’re closely watching what happens to Rep. Katie Porter, an ascendant party luminary and prolific fundraiser who’s facing a fierce challenge from GOP former Assemblymember Scott Baugh. In a plea to California Democratic Party members yesterday, Porter warned “Republicans are polling well across the country, and we’re seeing especially concerning trends in blue states like California,” noting redistricting had substantially redrawn her seat. Baugh was celebrating Cook having moved the race to toss-up status. The LATimes’ Melanie Mason has more on the marquee race.
After which there’s Rep. Julia Brownley. While Porter’s Orange County seat has long been viewed as competitive, the last-minute reinforcements Democrats are marshaling to fend off an upset in Brownley’s D+15 seat illustrate a broadly difficult landscape for Democrats. Other members and leadership PACs are channeling money into the race. “My friend Congresswoman Julia Brownley is in trouble,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote in a fundraising plea for Brownley last week — and if that’s true, the peril for California Democrats goes far beyond Brownley’s district.
BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. We learned more yesterday in regards to the alleged motives of Paul Pelosi’s purported assailant — including his desire to harm other political figures. More below.
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QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I don’t imagine it’s in any respect representative of the state of public safety in San Francisco. I believe it’s more so representative of the state of politics in america that folks imagine that enacting violence against members of our political government is OK.” San Francisco DA Brooke Jenkins on the Pelosi assault.
TWEET OF THE DAY:
WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
LAST RESORT — “This city paid $1.1M to maintain faucets running through March as the worth of water skyrockets in California,” by CNN’s René Marsh: “Miles of brittle, uprooted almond trees lay dead on their sides on parched farmland in Coalinga, California, as an intensifying drought, recent restrictions and skyrocketing water prices are forcing farmers to sacrifice their crops.”
OMINOUS OVERSIGHT — “Stanford knew in regards to the campus imposter for a 12 months. He kept coming back,” by the Stanford Every day’s Theo Baker: “Stanford administrators and the general public safety department have been aware since at the very least December 2021 that William Curry, the Alabama native who was faraway from campus Thursday, had pretended to be a Stanford student and lived in multiple University dorms, in line with communications obtained by The Every day.”
PELOSI ATTACK — ‘Take all of them out’: Recent details from Paul Pelosi assault emerge as suspect arraigned, by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: Prosecutors released disturbing recent details on Tuesday in regards to the man accused of breaking into the house of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and attacking her husband — including an alleged statement by which he threatens to attack the country’s top Democratic officials.
THIS AGAIN — “Gavin Newsom says it’s ‘not the moment’ for him to run for president,” by CBS News’ Caitlin Yilek: “California Gov. Gavin Newsom insists he will not be all for running for president, although he’s bought ads in Florida and Texas to troll their GOP governors, elevating his profile ahead of the 2024 election as President Biden weighs whether to run for reelection. “
— “As housing prices surge, rent control is on the ballot,” by AP’s Janie Har and Michael Casey: “With rental prices skyrocketing and reasonably priced housing in brief supply, inflation-weary tenants in cities and counties across the country are turning to the ballot box for relief. Supporters say rent control policies on the Nov. 8 ballot are the very best short-term choice to dampen rising rents and ensure vulnerable residents remain housed.”
TESTING TURNOUT — “Despite ‘election fatigue’ and Democratic discontent, California turnout looks promising,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Jenavieve Hatch: “Two weeks before the 2018 midterms in Sacramento County, 75,403 mail-in ballots were returned to the elections office. That number last week was 88,878. County election officials take their task of training voters in regards to the importance of local midterms seriously.”
— “California elections for top judicial posts: Big stakes, little info available to the general public,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Bob Egelko: “Of all the choices facing California voters next Tuesday, few may have such significant consequences, based on such little information, as whether or not they should retain the state’s top judicial officers for terms of as much as 12 years.”
ONE BAD SIGN… “Nearly a 3rd of southern Sierra forests killed by drought and wildfire in last decade,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Hayley Smith: “As climate change continues to remodel California’s landscape in staggering and infrequently irreversible ways, researchers have zeroed in on yet one more casualty of the shift: the forests of the southern Sierra Nevada.”
… AND ANOTHER — “Climate change is rapidly accelerating in California, state report says,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Hayley Smith: “The fourth edition of “Indicators of Climate Change in California,” released Tuesday, paints a stark picture of the escalating climate crisis and documents how global reliance on fossil fuels has had wide-ranging effects on the state’s weather, water and residents.”
— “California enables sexual assault victims to trace rape kits,” by the AP’s Don Thompson: “Delays in testing evidence from sexual assaults have been a lost opportunity for investigators and a source of frustration for victims for years, prompting California officials to announce Tuesday that they’ve created a way for survivors to trace the progress of linking their rape kits with DNA evidence.”
— “Donald Trump shares unfounded conspiracy theory about Paul Pelosi attack,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Shira Stein: “Trump, who was appearing on the Chris Stigall radio show Tuesday morning, said falsely that ‘the glass it seems was broken from the within to the out. And you recognize, so it wasn’t a break in, it was a break out’ — a theory for which police have said there is no such thing as a evidence.”
UNDER THE RADAR — “He was accused of stealing huge amounts of water over 23 years. Here’s why nobody noticed,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Dale Kasler and Ryan Sabalow: “California’s water police struggle to trace where water is flowing and whether someone is taking greater than they’re purported to. A criminal case unfolding within the San Joaquin Valley underscores how the federal government seems to have similar problems.”
ANYONE’S GAME — The Biden gap and the partisan poll flood: Breaking down the most recent Senate surveys, by POLITICO’s Steven Shepard: A spate of latest polls arrived this week bearing a transparent message for Democrats: They’re still within the hunt for the Senate majority. The parties are deadlocked in Georgia and Nevada. Democrats have slight leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania — though there’s a scarcity of reliable polling since last week’s potentially game-changing debate in that race.
BLUE CHECK BLUES — “Elon Musk Wants More Paying Twitter Users, Hinting at $8 a Month for Verified Accounts,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Meghan Bobrowsky and Alyssa Lukpat: “Elon Musk is trying to quickly boost Twitter Inc.’s revenue by embracing subscriptions, a technique that has had limited success within the social-media business.”
AUTOPILOT — “Tesla Gives Demo to Agency Probing Self-Driving Claims,” by Bloomberg’s Dana Hull: “Tesla Inc. demonstrated a beta version of its driver-assistance system for California transportation officials, including outside consultants the automaker previously sought to bar from the event.”
— “California Governor Wants The State’s Marijuana Farmers To ‘Legally Supply The Rest Of The Nation,’” by Marijuana Moment’s Kyle Jaeger: “California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) says he desires to see marijuana federally legalized, partially in order that his state’s cannabis farmers can ‘legally supply the remaining of the nation.’ The governor made the remarks in a video that played on the Oakland International Film Festival in September, where activists gave a sneak preview screening of a documentary on the local history of the marijuana reform movement that features Newsom.”
“IT WAS HIS TIME TO SHINE” — “Takeoff, of Atlanta Rap Trio Migos, Shot Dead at 28,” by the Recent York Times’ Joe Coscarelli and J. David Goodman: “The rapper often called Takeoff, a subtle vocal technician and one-third of the chart-topping group Migos, whose singsong flow helped define Atlanta’s ever-evolving, influential rap sound, was shot and killed overnight outside a Houston bowling alley, the authorities said. He was 28.”
— “Randall Emmett sued for race discrimination, hostile workplace by former assistant,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Meg James: “Certainly one of Randall Emmett’s former assistants has sued the once-prominent filmmaker, accusing him of racial discrimination and making a hostile workplace that included the usage of the N-word.”
TRAIL TIPS — “The ten best mountain climbing trails within the Bay Area, in line with 600,000 reviews,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Nami Sumida, Gregory Thomas, Sarah Feldberg and Dan Kopf.
— “Mackenzie Scott gives $2.4 million to Sacramento housing project. ‘Completely out of the blue,’” by the Sacramento Bee’s Mathew Miranda.
CROSSWORD ANYONE? — “California election 2022: It’s a puzzle,” by CalMatters’ Ben Christopher and Jeremia Kimelman.
— “Cold front to bring rain, snow, wind to dry California,” by the AP.
— “Sacramento’s Measure O: Voters to make a decision whether to ban homeless camps on public property,” by CapRadio’s Chris Nichols.
Makan Delrahim … John Sampson of Microsoft Azure … Caitlin Heising … Tony Fazio … Katie Hogan
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