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Bitcoin had an enormous rally in 2023, with the digital currency up some 152% for the 12 months.
And plenty of commentators CNBC spoke to — each inside and outdoors of the cryptocurrency industry — expect the rise to proceed.
After hitting a record high in 2021, bitcoin had a rough 2022, which was marked by the collapse of high-profile projects, liquidity issues and bankruptcies.
That 12 months, FTX, once one among the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, filed for bankruptcy. In 2023, its founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of all seven criminal counts brought against him by federal prosecutors within the U.S.
Also in 2023, Binance’s Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to criminal charges and stepped down as the corporate’s CEO as a part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice.
Now that those two high-profile cases are out the way in which, many cryptocurrency executives see it as a likelihood to maneuver forward and draw a line under the bad behavior of two of the industry’s poster children.
With fervor returning to the crypto markets, industry executives are calling the beginning of a latest bull run, mainly predicated on two things — the bitcoin “halving” and the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund within the U.S.
The halving, which happens every 4 years, is an event written in bitcoin’s code. The rewards so-called miners get for mining bitcoin is cut in half. This keeps a cap on supply of bitcoin, of which there’ll only ever be 21 million. In previous price cycles, halving preceded an increase in the value of bitcoin.
Meanwhile, there may be growing excitement that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the primary ever bitcoin ETF, after years of opposition. This could mean investors should purchase a product that tracks the value of bitcoin, without having to go on to an exchange and hold the digital currency directly. The industry is hoping it will attract a wider range of investors, and particularly, large institutional investors.
With all of this excitement comes some quite daring predictions about bitcoin’s price. Here’s a choice of a few of them.
Mark Mobius: $60,000
In 2022, Mark Mobius accurately forecast bitcoin would drop to $20,000 when it was trading above $28,000. He had a price call of $10,000 thereafter, which he stuck to in 2023. Nonetheless, that didn’t materialize, as bitcoin rallied.
For 2024, Mobius told CNBC that bitcoin could reach $60,000 by the tip of the 12 months.
“No rationale for that prediction,” Mobius said, except that a bitcoin ETF looks likely and “that has heightened interest” within the cryptocurrency.
Bit Mining: $75,000
Youwei Yang, chief economist of crypto mining firm Bit Mining, believes that bitcoin could reach a high of $75,000 by 2024.
Yang attributes the anticipated price rise to a bitcoin ETF being approved, resulting in higher institutional investment in bitcoin, in addition to May 2024’s bitcoin halving, which might lead to the bitcoin supply being constrained.
“I anticipate the Bitcoin will likely be trading around $25K to $75K in 2024, and $45K to $130K in 2025,” Yang said in an emailed note.
“While high prices are possible, not all investors will profit attributable to market volatility and the human tendencies of fear and greed.”
Bitcoin’s price performance over the past 12 months.
Yang said the ETF approval stays the most important story for bitcoin in 2024 — though investors should hold a level of caution on timing given the injuries left by collapses of major crypto firms like Luna and FTX, and because it is an election 12 months when the subject of crypto is more likely to turn out to be more of a political issue.
“Timing the market is difficult, but a gradual approach — accumulating in bear markets and taking profits in bull markets — may be a simpler strategy for whom do not have early-on accumulations.”
CoinShares: $80,000
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the landscape for digital assets is about for “significant change” in 2024, driven by the potential approval of bitcoin ETFs within the U.S.
“This long-awaited development is poised to expand the investor base for cryptocurrencies and integrate them more closely with traditional financial markets,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
“Estimations suggest that a 20% investment increase from current assets under management (around US$3 billion) could potentially propel Bitcoin prices to US$80,000.”
Meanwhile, the scenario of central banks cutting rates of interest could also “play a decisive role” in moving bitcoin higher, Butterfill added.
The market will likely be also aspects beyond the halving — which he considers already priced into bitcoin — that would influence the value of the digital coin further.
“Thus, while the halving is a known event, other elements, particularly the potential for rate of interest reductions, are more likely to be significant in shaping Bitcoin’s price in the long run,” Butterfill said.
Nexo: $100,000
Antoni Trenchev, a noted bitcoin bull and co-founder of Nexo, a cryptocurrency exchange, believes bitcoin could hit $100,000 in 2024.
In 2022, he called for bitcoin to hit $100,000, but that did not occur. As a substitute, the value of bitcoin collapsed that 12 months. He held off from any further price predictions.
But in a note in December, Trenchev reinstated his $100,000 call for 2024, citing the halving and potential approval of multiple bitcoin ETFs.
“My expectation for 2024 is that the twin-turbo boost from the Bitcoin halving & spot ETF approval should propel Bitcoin to $100,000, with the prospect of further highs in 2025,” Trenchev said in a note. “The road to $100,000 will likely be lined with unexpected potholes and double-digit declines as Bitcoin.”
Trenchev added that the most important gains will come from digital tokens and projects “that are not even on the radar yet.”
Standard Chartered: $100,000
In November, Standard Chartered doubled down on its $100,000 call for bitcoin made in April. The bank said this will likely be driven by the approval of various ETFs.
The halving will even be supportive for bitcoin, the bank said.
Carol Alexander: $100,000
In 2022, University of Sussex professor of finance Carol Alexander had a reasonably successful run of calling bitcoin’s future price.
She predicted bitcoin would slip to $10,000 in 2022. That 12 months, bitcoin fell as little as around $15,480, in keeping with CoinDesk data. For 2023, Alexander said bitcoin would rally as high as $50,000. Bitcoin reached a yearly high of roughly $44,700 in early December.
Alexander told CNBC that throughout the first quarter of 2024, bitcoin will trade inside the $40,000 to $55,000 range, owing to “skilled traders creating volatility.”
The subsequent stage will rely upon when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settles charges against Coinbase and Binance, which may very well be required before approval of a bitcoin ETF, in keeping with Alexander, echoing other commentators. The SEC sued each Coinbase and Binance in 2023.
Alexander said settlement of those charges is probably going in either the second or third quarter, after which ETFs will likely be approved and bitcoin’s price will rise to $70,000, a latest all-time high.
The worth after that is determined by the talents of the ETF providers, comparable to Blackrock and Fidelity, “to equip their market makers not only to create the ETFs, but additionally to defend price manipulations” on exchanges which create “excessive volatility.”
“Before end of 2024 price could exceed $100k, but provided that Blackrock and Fidelity market maker algorithms have the power to cut back volatility,” Alexander concluded.
Matrixport: $125,000
Matrixport, which bills itself as a crypto financial services firm, released a note in November projecting that bitcoin would reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the tip of next 12 months.
“Based on our inflation model, the macro environment is predicted to stay a sturdy tailwind for crypto. One other decline in inflation is anticipated, prompting the Federal Reserve to likely initiate rate of interest cuts,” Matrixport said in its report.
“Combined with geopolitical crosscurrents, this healthy dose of monetary support should push Bitcoin to latest highs in 2024.”
Many commentators see easing monetary policy as supportive for bitcoin, which is viewed as a dangerous asset. Meanwhile, some see bitcoin as a kind of “refuge” asset to pour money into in times of geopolitical strife, though many disagree with this theory.
CoinFund: As much as $500,000
Enterprise capital CoinFund has one among the best price calls for bitcoin for 2024.
“Bitcoin has a powerful inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, and each are actually happening,” Seth Ginns, managing partner at CoinFund, told CNBC via email. “We also expect the follow through inflows post-launch of the BTC spot ETF, in addition to growing excitement across the likely approval of ETH (ether) spot ETFs later in 2024, will likely be quite meaningful.”
Ginns added that he thinks the industry is within the strategy of “regulatory normalization.”
Ginns said that bitcoin could touch $1 million per coin “on this next cycle,” but said a more “reasonable expectation” for 2024 would see bitcoin between $250,000 and $500,000.