Only three teams within the Premier League have more wins for the reason that World Cup than Aston Villa, which has put together an 11-3-6 (W-D-L) stretch since Christmas to present itself an honest probability of qualifying for a European competition.
While Unai Emery and Villa deserve a ton of credit for the outcomes they’ve collected over the second half of the season, there are some concerns that this stretch has been lots of smoke and mirrors.
The Villans have scored 30 goals and conceded 21 over their last 20 matches, but their expected goals output is way more pedestrian.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham pick
(10 a.m. Eastern)
Aston Villa has created 26.8 expected goals in that span and conceded 29.3.
Based on Understat, a team with that form of statistical portfolio must have around 28 points. Villa has 36.
While Aston Villa has stabilized for the reason that World Cup, things have gone the opposite direction for Tottenham Hotspur.
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It has been an uneven season and the market seems to have written it off a bit on this spot.
It’s hard to trust Spurs as a favourite, but they’re the underdog on this spot and have plenty to play for as they’ll have to get something from this match to maintain Villa from taking their Europa League spot.
That is an amazing buy-low, sell-high spot.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction
Tottenham (+200, FanDuel)