Founding father of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves a cemetery before the funeral of Russian military blogger Maxim Fomin widely known by the name of Vladlen Tatarsky, who was recently killed in a bomb attack in a St Petersburg cafe, in Moscow, Russia, April 8, 2023.
Yulia Morozova | Reuters
Once a detailed ally and caterer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin now finds himself exiled to Belarus after leading his private mercenary group in an armed mutiny against the Russian military.
Inside 24 hours of a Wagner Group revolt by which mercenaries shot down Russian fighter jets and took over the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin halted the militia’s march on Moscow in a deal that allowed him to flee the country.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed late on Tuesday that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus and said other Wagner mercenaries had been offered accommodation at an abandoned naval base in the event that they wish to hitch him.
Some analysts characterised last weekend’s unprecedented rebellion as essentially the most damaging moment in Putin’s 23 years in power and suggest it will not be the last of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, which incorporates 1000’s of former convicts recruited from Russian jails.
Despite the apparent amnesty granted in exchange for halting the offensive, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Monday that Prigozhin is a “dead man walking.”
Within the absence of further details on the deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, analysts are broadly uncertain as to what the longer term holds for the Wagner Group and its leader.
The Russian security service has said it is going to not prosecute Wagner Group — but, in a televised address, Putin said that the organizers of the rebellion could be “delivered to justice,” without mentioning Prigozhin by name.
Atlantic Council CEO Fred Kempe told CNBC’s “The Exchange” that this might not be a “one-act play” for either the Russian president or his former friend.
“Will Prigozhin remain alive in Belarus? Where will he go, will he proceed to command the Wagner troops, which, by the way in which, are wealthy and earning money off gold mines and other things across Africa and in addition in Syria, and who will they take their orders from? Will they take their orders from Putin, or will they take them from Prigozhin?” Kempe mused, adding that the unknowns at this stage are crucial aspect of Prigozhin’s banishment.
The weekend events marked the culmination of a long-running feud between Prigozhin and the Russian armed forces. Wagner’s presence in Ukraine was integral to the Russian war effort, but its leader became increasingly vocal in recent months about perceived incompetence among the many Kremlin’s military top brass, blaming generals for substantial losses sustained by the mercenary group.
Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global politics research at TS Lombard, said Prigozhin’s various diatribes on the Telegram messaging app during the last month, which challenged your entire premise for the war as laid out by Putin, could have “planted a seed that may germinate in Russian society turning against the war.”
“To the extent that Prigozhin has indicated what he himself would do if he was in charge (something which this weekend’s events show to be his goal), his vague and contradictory statements boil all the way down to saying that now that this mistaken war is going on, Russia must fully mobilize under recent leadership to fight it to a successful conclusion,” Granville said in a weekend note.
“This stance puts Prigozhin on the hard nationalist end of the domestic political spectrum. But his critique of the war can have struck a chord with the anti-war minority in Russian society in addition to with the bulk core of society that’s apathetically/passively loyal to the Putin system despite various degrees of disquiet in regards to the war.”
The extent to which Prigozhin’s hardline criticism of the Russian war effort resonated will likely be an ongoing concern for Putin, and a few analysts imagine this has cleared the way in which for an additional try to seize control for himself, or for other warlords to fill the void.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul told CNBC earlier this week that the danger of the Kremlin being perceived as weak can fuel skepticism that Prigozhin’s quiet retirement in Belarus will play out as stated.
“I’m undecided Putin can afford to permit this guy, who’s develop into very talked-about hastily, to sit down in Belarus and just remain quiet. I think that there’s something more that will likely be done with Mr Prigozhin,” he said.
This sentiment was echoed by British consultancy Teneo, who suggested that, despite the alleged security guarantees offered to Prigozhin, Putin “might punish him in a highly visible method to display that such challenges to his rule is not going to be tolerated.”
“Looking further ahead, the chaotic turn of events previously few days offered a glimpse into one potential scenario after Putin’s eventual departure from power,” said Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo.
“A fierce rivalry for power amongst influential interest groups, many backed by (private) military/armed power, might trigger a protracted period of political and social instability with unpredictable outcomes.”
Tursa also noted that some potential successors to Putin, including Prigozhin, hold “extremely nationalist and hostile views toward the West.”
“While domestic instability could end the so-called special military operation [in Ukraine], any sustained improvement to the country’s business environment could be unlikely.”
