We’ve had slightly little bit of all the pieces in the primary three games of this World Series: an extra-innings walk-off, a blowout and a defensively sound pitching showcase.
Tuesday’s Game 4 in Arizona is predicted to feature a lengthier series of arms out of the bullpen for either side.
Joe Mantiply (1-0, 4.26 ERA) and Andrew Heaney (0-0, 6.00 ERA) will play the Johnny Wholestaff roles.
That is Mantiply’s second start of the postseason; his other resulted in a single inning pitched after having allowed one hit against Philadelphia within the NLCS. Arizona deployed seven pitchers from the bullpen in that game.
Heaney has had extremely limited usage as he’s pitched for six total innings through 4 games, two of which he began.
It’s difficult to approach lines in these situations since it’s going to be a game of mound chess between Torey Luvollo and Bruce Bochy.
They each used 4 relievers in Game 3 and Bochy had to make use of Jon Gray after Max Scherzer’s exit as a result of back spasms after three innings. Gray was — and will still be — prone to play a hand in Game 4.
All this implies is that it’s up within the air after the primary inning. Even so, I still like how the Diamondbacks stack up against Heaney from the get-go — especially Tommy Pham.
Pham is leading the series with seven hits, which include a house run and three doubles. He’s posted a .291 average on the plate within the playoffs.
The veteran journeyman has been ruthless against left-handed pitching this fall, hitting .455 with a house run and a 1.364 on-base plus slugging.
Pham quietly resided within the top-40 hitters in quality of contact this season. He was also Arizona’s simplest player in xSLG at .472.
Pham has adopted the designated-hitting role for Arizona with poise as he’s provided a lift to the center of the lineup batting fifth.
The D-backs have hit lefties consistently all postseason at .300.
Heaney loves the four-seam fastball, which he delivers in greater than half of his pitches.
Pham has hit those exceptionally well this 12 months with a median exit velocity of 94 mph and a .413 xwOBA.
Pham has also had a profession revival in barrel rate this season, kicking his sweet-spot contact as much as 10.7% — his highest since 2016.
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Heaney has allowed hits in the primary inning of each his starts against the Orioles and Astros.
I also like Corbin Carroll at the highest of the order on this matchup (and to exceed his total bases prop) because the lefty-lefty matchup gives him the sting.
But whether the Diamondbacks can get to Pham in the primary inning or not, it’s definitely worth the value to grab someone that has two four-hit games within the postseason in a pitching-carousel game.
The play: Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Bases Recorded (+120 at FanDuel)
