Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust head of investment strategy, joins ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss how important Wednesday’s CPI data is to investors, how likely it is the U.S. stock market ends the year higher than it is today and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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Well folks I warned you that Biden is TOXIC to America and we will hit double-digit inflation. Trump's inflation 1.4% Biden's now 9.1% and rising with no end in sight. January 20, 2025 can't come soon enough. get ready the market will start tanking.
Deceleration did not happen. Sorry.
I would make a note right now….never, EVER invest anything with Wilmington Trust
does any one think copy trading is still a thing? i know it made a lot of easy millionaires when it was a trend some years back. when it was made especially popular by the concept of social trading in etoro. got me wondering if this method still works? my portfolio is drifting terribly far from safe waters lately. really looking for a lifeline
THESE are our experts who WILDLY GUESS and try to convince us RIVERS FLOW uphills!!! We are buying food, filling gas and paying bills and know that EVERYTHING is going up! We need RECESSION! That is OPPOSITE of INFLATION!!!
Probably wont invest in WILMINGTON TRUST if they guess and guess WRONG (9.1%) great analysis guys
I want Wilmington Trust to come and tell my wife she looks great in that dress, she always knows when Im lying
9.1% you moron
This didn’t age well
CPLIE is 9.1% that includes all the lie that they can do still can’t help to lie more then they have .. earning doesn’t matter anymore FED manipulation does the job not the earnings..
There has to be an analyst like this to make others look good. You can see prices in retail stores still trending up. What a bad prediction and assessment
Always good to hear your thoughtful and logical analysis. I think we are entering a crab market Personally. We will still get our pumps and dumps but based purely on what the Fed are doing. That being said, as traders we are still make good money 😀 Thanks to Grayson Miles for his amazing skills/signals which helped me earn 12 BTC through daily trading chart. Great TA as always>🙌🏻
What is scary is the sheeple keep bleating then vote for the same thing OVER and OVER again
LOL wrong! 😂
Coincidental that when soviet union invaded Afghanistan that inflation shoot to the sky during those periods in 1970 to 1980??Now US latest inflation figure is 9.1% .It is the economy stupid exclaimed Ronald Reagan !! Which country will suffered the highest inflationary dire consequence if US continued to accede to sanctimonious beggar Zelensky for more weaponry whereby prolonging this needless war that will be the demise many country to become bankrupt such as Sri Lankan.You do not need an economist tell you who will prevails. As well as taking the current affairs into it.The Russian Ruble will be again be the best currency for 2023 and follow by Yuan.
That is not necessary a good thing US dollar Weaker currency means more business. US had repeatedly complained about China artificially keeping its currency down. Lower the currency, more business.why Yuan ?cos Rubles and Russia cannot function by itself just like North Korea after thousand of sanction. currency by itself is redundant in a global economy.Countries with the Highest Default Risk in 2022.In May 2022, the South Asian nation of Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time. The country’s government was given a 30-day grace period to cover $78 million in unpaid interest, but ultimately failed to pay.Not only does this impact Sri Lanka’s economic future, but it also raises an important question: which other countries are at risk of default?To find out, we’ve used data from Bloomberg to rank the countries with the highest default risk.The Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking.Bloomberg’s Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking is a composite measure of a country’s default risk. It’s based on four underlying metrics:
Government bond yields (the weighted-average yield of the country’s dollar bonds) 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread. Interest expense as a percentage of GDP. Government debt as a percentage of GDP.To better understand this ranking, let’s focus on Ukraine and El Salvador as examples.
Country Rank Government Bond
Yield (%) 5Y CDS Spread Interest Expense
(% of GDP) Government Debt
(% of GDP)
🇸🇻 El Salvador 1 31.8% 3,376 bps
(33.76%) 4.9% 82.6%
🇺🇦 Ukraine 8 60.4% 10,856 bps
(100.85%) 2.9% 49%
1 basis point (bps) = 0.01%
Why are Ukraine’s Bond Yields so High?Ukraine has high default risk due to its ongoing conflict with Russia. To understand why, consider a scenario where Russia was to assume control of the country. If this happened, it’s possible that Ukraine’s existing debt obligations will never be repaid.That scenario has prompted a sell-off of Ukrainian government bonds, pushing their value down to nearly 30 cents on the dollar. This means that a bond with face value of $100 could be purchased for $30.
Because yields move in the opposite direction of price, the average yield on these bonds has climbed to a very high 60.4%. As a point of comparison, the yield on a U.S. 10-year government bond is currently 2.9%.What is a CDS Spread?Credit default swaps (CDS) are a type of derivative (financial contract) that provides a lender with insurance in the event of a default. The seller of the CDS represents a third party between the lender (investors) and borrower (in this case, governments).
In exchange for receiving coverage, the buyer of a CDS pays a fee known as the spread, which is expressed in basis points (bps). If a CDS has a spread of 300 bps (3%), this means that to insure $100 in debt, the investor must pay $3 per year.Applying this to Ukraine’s 5-year CDS spread of 10,856 bps (108.56%), an investor would need to pay $108.56 each year to insure $100 in debt. This suggests that the market has very little faith in Ukraine’s ability to avoid default.
Why is El Salvador Ranked Higher?
Despite having lower values in the two metrics discussed above, El Salvador ranks higher than Ukraine because of its larger interest expense and total government debt.According to the data above, El Salvador has annual interest payments equal to 4.9% of its GDP, which is relatively high. Comparing to the U.S. once more, America’s federal interest costs amounted to 1.6% of GDP in 2020.When totaled, El Salvador’s outstanding debts are equal to 82.6% of GDP. This is considered high by historical standards, but today it’s actually quite normal.
The next date to watch will be January 2023, as this is when the country’s $800 million sovereign bond reaches maturity. Recent research suggests that if El Salvador were to default, it would experience significant, yet temporary, negative effects.Another Hot Topic for El Salvador: Bitcoin.In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. This means that Bitcoin is recognized by law as a means to settle debts and other obligations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticized this decision in early 2022, urging the country to revoke legal tender status. In hindsight, these warnings were wise, as Bitcoin’s value has fallen by 56% year-to-date.While this isn’t directly related to El Salvador’s default risk, it does open potential avenues for relief. For instance, large players in the crypto space may be willing to assist the government to keep the concept of “nation-state bitcoin adoption” alive.
China is till the biggest manufacturer in the world.USA tried to tariff China,end up with 100 of billions of trade deficits.Russia can do without India but not China(it is still the biggest importer of oils and gas)China economy is 20 trillions after xi unrelenting drive versa a pathetic economy less then 5trillions ,if US dollar increase it rate to fight another inflation like its did the 1970 to 1980 from rate increase from 10 to 20 % to flight inflation of mere 10% .Emerging economy will be torn and tatter economy just like other which US hegemony always do but while other are at the mercy of USA or embracing the next best currency such as China,it can sell it the reserve of $1 trillion in the treasury dollar back to US protecting it economy.Therefore Ruble for oils combing with yuan is the greatest threat to US petrol dollar.both combination to be reserve currency is not a disillusion anymore !!
Russia too tries to weaken it's currency like reducing the interest rate and reducing the cap on rubles from 80% to maybe 50% and all that.A balanced currency is what is important.Now this are unusual events. And Russia is willing to have an unacceptable powerful currency just to cause more damage to unfriendly nations.Russia continues to demand payment from them in Rubles. This creates an unprecedented demand for the currency, increasing its value.It is a fact that Russia will shut EU gas thereby making unfriendly EU to have the coldest winter making Goldman sac and Morgan prediction that oils could go to stenographic level like $300 abortive if Russia threat is carry out fully.
Let's agree on one thing. The prognosis of the coming winter in Europe is not good.Even with their propaganda on how they are working hard to replace Russia as its energy supply. Their storage tanks are less then half full, lignite burning furnaces at power plants closed for years are been restarted. Forget the environment. And rationing is already been announced.Even if all the LNG ships on earth are diverted to supply Europe alone, they can not fully replace Russian piped gas
The reality is that there is a limit to how much a population will accept before heads start rolling, and the western Europe know that. When the cold and economy really bites in another few months. EU will again start twisting to be able to buy more Russian energy. Forcing the Ruble in which they have to pay, up.So the Ruble will enter 2023 as the best currency, Russians like it or not.
Especially when there is an active war on the Petrodollar is on.Why isn’t the US doing anything about China’s growth in power?
Did you just wake up, Mr. Rip Van Winkle? The US has been doing tons to try and “contain” China… * spread propaganda rhetoric and disinformation in an attempt to turn public opinion against China * interfere in Chinese commerce by banning Huawei and SMIC * interfere in Chinese politics using the CIA in Hong Kong ,Tibet ,Xinjiang…
Psychologically, the Panda & the Bear have left the west by far intelligently, foresightedness, arguably, logically, spiritually, mentally, economically, politically, energetically, militarily.China surpassed all the Western efforts to curb their economy & military.Then, west is using the very few options they are left with to dismantle the world economy.China the global leader Economically, the west just won't agree easily because they'll look weak. The west don't wanna see anybody on-top of them Economically & Militarily. That's why they wanna bring about chao
Yeah
With the high rate of inflation, the economy is heading towards a severe recession.However, a crash and bullish market provides equal high-yield potential, it's all about information and strategy application, I've seen folks make huge 7figure profit in a crashing market and pull it off much easily in a bull market Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting somebody somewhere rich.
You can save lots of money by not listening to these so called experts
Do not pay yourself first. That's the worst budget advice I've ever heard. It undermines the current financial reality of the low and middle class. Bills, first, save after.
So wrong 🤣
So wrong …. new CPI was announced at 9.1%
This headline aged very badly
maybe not
My friend in Texas referred me to this channel you make a lot of sense but I do not understand anything until she referred me to a financial counsellor in USA that help me to craft my portfolio and over a year we have been working together making consistent profit enough to get me a new apartment and care for parents.
Omg…near the end? Not even close. May go down into 2024.