One of the best series of the primary round of the NBA playoffs continues on Friday, when the defending champion Warriors host the fan favorite Kings in a possible close-out spot at home.
Golden State enters Friday’s contest as a large home favorite to finish this series and to make good on their overwhelming pre-matchup odds to advance despite being the lower seed on this matchup.
Will the Dubs finish the job, or can Sacramento force a decisive Game 7 at home?
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which suggestions off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Warriors vs. Kings odds
(via BetMGM)
- Warriors -7.5 (-110), moneyline -300
- Kings +7.5 (-110), moneyline +240
- O/U 236.5 (-110)
Warriors vs. Kings prediction and evaluation
(8 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Just as we anticipated in our Game 5 preview, the Warriors prolonged their record streak of 28 postseason series with at the least one road win, quieting the critics of their checkered road record throughout the regular season and early on this series.
And with a 3-2 lead on their very own home court, this looks like a quintessential close-out spot for a team that knows tips on how to handle business within the playoffs.
Golden State looked every bit just like the team we’ve come to expect over the previous few years with its monumental Game 5 win in Sacramento.
Stephen Curry (31 points) led all scorers despite a lackluster day from deep; Klay Thompson (25) and Draymond Green (21) joined the scoring parade; and Kevon Looney (22 rebounds, 7 assists) did the dirty work to secure his team’s fate.
Now this group returns home, where it’s been virtually unbeatable all season long.
The Warriors boasted the NBA’s third-best outright home record (33-8) with the very best mark against the spread (28-14-1) within the regular season, and so they’ve won their two home games on this series by a combined 18 points.
That alone is a large challenge for the Kings to beat.
So is the injury to star guard De’Aaron Fox (finger), which was obviously a consider the team’s crushing loss on Wednesday.
After averaging 31.5 points through the primary 4 games of this series, the All-Star guard finished with 24 points on just 9-of-25 shooting (36%), including 3-of-10 from deep (30%).
He also got to the free-throw line just 3 times all game and finished with a team-high six turnovers – tied for his most in a game for the reason that season opener on Oct. 19.
Clearly, Fox isn’t at his best with that fractured finger on his left shooting hand, and his teammates struggled to hold the load.
Domantas Sabonis (21 points) topped 15 points for less than the second time this series, but the remaining of the team shot just 44% from the sphere with middling efficiency from deep.
Betting on the NBA?
The most important issue?
The Kings’ defense can’t sustain.
The Warriors shot a ridiculous 52.1% in Game 5, which comes after they made half their shots in Game 4, too.
And so they didn’t even shoot well from deep (28.9%) or the free-throw line (63.2%) on Wednesday, each of which seem ripe for positive regression in Game 6.
As this series wears on, Sacramento’s biggest weaknesses – shoddy defense and a heavy reliance on Fox’s playmaking and shot creation – are bubbling to the surface, and the reigning champs are too seasoned to not make the most.
It is a massive number to put in a series that’s been competitive thus far, but it surely looks like the fatal blow is coming on Friday.
