It’s fair to say that Boise State has been a disappointment in 2025. The Broncos were tipped because the cream of the crop within the Group of 5, and were the consensus favorite to represent the G5 within the College Football Playoff within the preseason.
An embarrassing loss to South Florida in Week 1 set the tone for a turbulent campaign in Idaho, but one way or the other the Broncos were in a position to claw their option to the highest of the Mountain West standings by season’s end, clinching home-field advantage in Friday night’s conference title game against UNLV.
The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites over the Rebels.
UNLV vs. Boise State odds, prediction
UNLV isn’t a sophisticated team.
Dan Mullen’s team desires to turn every game right into a track meet and you possibly can bet that their offense will outscore yours. For probably the most part, that formula has worked.
UNLV has won 10 of 12 games this season, with its only losses coming against Latest Mexico and Boise State. The Rebels are averaging 37.1 points per game (tenth in FBS), 457.2 yards per contest (14th) and 6.8 yards per play (seventh).
Much more impressive is that UNLV boasts a balanced attack, rating eleventh in yards per carry and sixteenth in yards per completion.
Betting on College Football?
The flipside of the coin is that UNLV’s defense is gettable. The Rebels concede nearly 28 points and 410 yards per contest, which gets them into trouble if the offense isn’t clicking or they’re going up against a robust defense.
The latter shouldn’t be an enormous issue on Friday.
Boise State’s defense grades out higher than UNLV’s, but not by a large margin, and the Broncos have been inconsistent on offense throughout the season.
UNLV’s 56-31 loss to Boise State may scare bettors off, but the opposite side of that coin is it’s providing you with a possibility to get a reduction on the higher team on this matchup.
The Play: UNLV (+152, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience within the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to assist punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn methods to beat the market in mainstream and area of interest sports.
