A United Airlines Boeing 767 passenger aircraft approaches Newark Liberty International Airport as trucks travel near the Port Jersey Container Terminal in Jersey City, Recent Jersey, on April 8, 2025.
Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images
United Airlines maintained its full-year forecast on Tuesday but took an unusual step of offering a second forecast should the U.S. slip right into a recession, calling the economy “not possible to predict.” Either way, it expects to show a profit.
The carrier warned alongside its first-quarter earnings that a recession could drive down profits this 12 months, but said booking trends are stable.
The corporate left in place expectations issued in January for adjusted earnings per share of $11.50 to $13.50, but said that in a recession, it will expect to earn between $7 per share and $9 per share on an adjusted basis.
“The Company’s outlook depends on the macro environment which the Company believes is not possible to predict this 12 months with any degree of confidence,” it said in a securities filing.
United Airlines said it plans to chop flights starting this summer to match disappointing domestic travel demand while bookings for pricier, international trips remain strong.
The carrier plans to trim domestic capability by about 4% starting within the third quarter. Rival Delta Air Lines in addition to Frontier Airlines are also cutting their growth plans this 12 months due to weaker-than-expected domestic bookings.
“The weakest region that we now have is domestic,” United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. He said the second-weakest segment is Canada, where United and other carriers have scaled back flights resulting from falling demand this 12 months.
For the primary quarter, United Airlines swung to a $387 million profit, or $1.16 a share, from a $124 million loss, or a lack of 38 cents per share, a 12 months earlier. Adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which exclude one-time gains related to aircraft sale-leasebacks, outpaced Wall Street’s expectations of 76 cents per share.
Unit revenue for domestic flights fell 3.9% from last 12 months in the course of the first quarter, while unit sales from international routes rose greater than 5%. Revenue of $13.21 billion was up greater than 5% from a 12 months ago, and got here in barely below the $13.26 billion that analysts expected, based on LSEG. Capability was up almost 5% from the primary quarter of 2024.
United Airlines shares were up greater than 4% in morning trading Wednesday.
Future bookings over the past two weeks have been stable, the corporate said, adding that premium-cabin bookings are up 17% from the identical point last 12 months and international bookings are up 5%, though the carrier didn’t provide a figure on domestic coach-cabin demand.
United Airlines said it expects to post second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.25 to $4.25, consistent with estimates, citing strong demand for premium-cabin bookings and international travel.
Here’s what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended March 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 76 cents expected
- Revenue: $13.21 billion vs. $13.26 billion expected
The newest trend shows how profitable airlines akin to United and Delta are capitalizing on demand from travelers willing to pay more for pricier seats and other higher-end products, at the same time as economic concerns weigh on consumer sentiment amid President Donald Trump’s trade war, mass government layoffs and other aspects.
Delta last week said it couldn’t reaffirm its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty available in the market.
