Ukrainian firefighters works on a destroyed constructing after a drone attack in Kyiv on October 17, 2022.
Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images
Ukraine is susceptible to running out of air defense weapons and wishes urgent help from the West to defend itself, analysts on the Royal United Services Institute said Monday.
Russia has bombarded the country over recent weeks with a tide of low cost Iran-supplied drones that are destroying the country’s energy infrastructure.
“The West must avoid complacency concerning the must urgently bolster Ukrainian air-defence capability,” defense and security think tank RUSI said.
Moscow and Tehran have denied that there’s a deal for Iran to produce Russia — a rustic with limited supply options on account of international sanctions — with weapons. Nonetheless, the Iranian government acknowledged for the primary time Saturday that it had sent a lot of drones to Russia, but insisted this was before Russia invaded Ukraine.
The U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley rejected that claim, saying Tehran supplied drones to Russia in the summertime.
RUSI analysts Justin Bronk, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds published their recent report on Ukraine’s air defences as Russia increasingly relies on Iranian Shahed-136 drones to disable Ukraine’s energy networks.
Local residents take a look at parts of an unmanned aerial vehicle, what Ukrainian authorities consider to be an Iranian-made drone Shahed-136, after a Russian drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv on Oct. 17, 2022.
Vladyslav Musiienko | Reuters
“If Ukrainian SAMs [surface-to-air missile systems] aren’t resupplied with ammunition, and ultimately augmented and replaced with Western equivalents over time, Russian Aerospace Forces [the VKS] will regain the power to pose a serious threat,” the analysts said.
On Sunday night, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Iranian regime was helping Russia extend the war, saying “if it was not for the Iranian supply of weapons to the aggressor, we can be closer to peace now.” He also warned that Russia needed Iranian missiles for a “possible repetition of mass attacks on our infrastructure.”
For its part, Ukraine continues to plead for more air defense weapons to assist it combat Russian drone and missile attacks. RUSI’s analysts agree that Ukraine requires urgent assistance to make sure that “Kyiv can counter Moscow’s updated approach to the air war in Ukraine.”
Strategic air attacks
Within the early months of the war against Ukraine, Russia’s attempts at strategic air attacks were limited to expensive cruise and ballistic missile barrages and were on a way more limited scale, RUSI’s experts said, noting that “these failed to realize strategically decisive damage through the first seven months of the invasion.”
In the previous couple of months, nevertheless, Russia has deployed a whole bunch of explosive-carrying drones supplied by Iran which have been used to focus on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, depriving a whole bunch of hundreds of individuals of water and electricity as colder temperatures set in.
Essentially propeller-powered missiles, these drones are low cost to purchase; reports suggest they cost around $20,000 per unit, in comparison with a cruise missile that may cost several million dollars. Also, while they don’t seem to be in a position to perform sophisticated maneuvers and contain smaller quantities of explosives to standard missiles, they may be sent in “swarms” to loiter above their goal and are harder for radar systems to detect.
Images showed Kyiv’s police attempting to shoot down drones during an attack last month that targeted residential buildings and energy facilities.
A police officer fires at a flying drone following attacks in Kyiv on October 17, 2022.
Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images
RUSI’s defense analysts said the usage of Iranian drones had modified the character of Russia’s air attack strategy, noting that the newest iteration “is a more focused and sustainable bombardment of the Ukrainian electricity grid, mixing a whole bunch of low cost Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 loitering munitions against substations with continued use of cruise and ballistic missiles against larger targets.”
What Ukraine needs
Within the short term, in accordance with RUSI, Ukraine needs large numbers of additional man-portable air-defense systems, referred to as “MANPADS,” and radar-guided anti-aircraft guns, reminiscent of the Gepard.
These will “sustain and increase its ability to intercept the Shahed-136s and protect its remaining power infrastructure and repairs to damaged facilities,” the analysts added.
“Within the medium term, Ukraine needs cost-effective ways to defend itself against the Shahed-136,” they said, also noting that the Ukrainian Air Force needs modern Western fighter jets and missiles to sustainably counter Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS. “Russian pilots have been cautious throughout the war, so even a small variety of Western fighters [jets] could have a serious deterrent effect.”
