By Humeyra Pamuk and Michelle Nichols
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Nearly ten months into the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration is intensifying diplomatic efforts to be certain that the transatlantic alliance that opposes Russia’s invasion survives a bitter European winter.
Previously weeks, the administration has scrambled to regulate its signature inflation laws to appease European governments whose support it needs on Ukraine, and secured an agreement from the G7 nations to cap the value of Russian oil.
President Joe Biden also briefly moderated his strong opposition to talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a signal to allies restless for a negotiated end to the conflict.
The Ukraine war can also be the backdrop for the U.S.-Africa Summit, a relationship-building exercise that starts on Tuesday and brings together the leaders of 49 African nations, lots of whom have expressed frustration with paying the economic price for the war, which the United Nations says has worsened a worldwide food crisis.
Political Cartoons on World Leaders
The coalition of nations opposing Russia’s invasion – from NATO members to U.S. allies similar to Japan and Australia – has proven resilient, defying predictions that rising energy prices partly brought on by the war could fracture the grouping. But sustaining that united front has required diplomacy and compromise, say diplomats and U.S. officials, and can likely require more because the European winter tests the general public’s support for Ukraine.
“(This winter) Ukrainians will suffer and Russia could proceed to make it harder,” said one senior European diplomat. “It might be increasingly more difficult for Europeans to preserve their unity and proceed to deliver weapons, money and assistance to Ukraine.”
John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, predicted the allies would remain united but acknowledged the stresses ahead.
“We definitely recognize that with the approaching of winter, and the best way Mr. Putin has weaponized energy specifically, there’s going to be enormous stress not only in Ukraine but throughout Europe,” he said.
U.S. and European officials met last week in Washington for trade talks focused on the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s capstone legislative achievement of 2022. The $430-billion law has angered European allies, who say that it unfairly subsidizes U.S. industry at Europe’s expense.
There may be little appetite in Biden’s Democratic Party to vary the law, the results of over a 12 months of congressional wrangling. But in discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of the trade talks, Biden said the bill wasn’t intended to exclude partners who’re cooperating with america and that “tweaks” are possible.
The administration has said little about what those changes is likely to be, but in his remarks Biden suggested more loosely interpreting the term “free trade partner” to exempt the EU from among the law’s restrictions.
While the disagreements aren’t yet resolved, the willingness to bend on such a core issue shows that america – and its European allies – recognize a have to tamp down disagreements for the sake of providing Ukraine with Western arms and other support.
“It’s a difficult balancing act. On the one hand, there’s an absolute recognition of the necessity for solidarity over Ukraine but alternatively there are necessary public policy objectives the Biden administration is trying to perform in america,” said Ian Lessler, a vp on the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.
“There must be a nod to American national economic interest. And I believe that is recognized in Europe.”
There have been successes. Those include the recent agreement by the G7 coalition to cap the value of Russian seaborne crude oil at $60 per barrel, a compromise reached after months of discussions geared toward overcoming disagreement between countries similar to Poland who desired to set the cap much lower and others who anxious about rising energy costs.
The U.S. also telegraphed a shift in its position on negotiations with Russia. After the meetings with Macron, who has advocated direct talks with Putin, Biden said at a news conference that he can be “prepared to talk with Mr. Putin if there’s an interest in him deciding he’s on the lookout for a technique to end the war,” adding that Putin hasn’t done that yet.
The White House quickly walked back the comments, clarifying that it had no intention of speaking with Putin because talks wouldn’t yet be fruitful and that there can be no discussions “about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
Still, Biden’s remarks suggested a U.S. desire to satisfy France halfway on the query of Russia talks without alienating Ukraine and East European allies, who insist Russia have to be defeated before any negotiation can begin.
“We’re now very much in step with the Americans,” said one French diplomat. “They’ve slowly moved to our position, which is to maintain channels of communications open with Russia.”
Biden’s remarks also resonated with countries who feel caught in the midst of a standoff between america and Russia and are desperate to see a negotiated end to the conflict.
Challenges remain, including a dispute between Hungary and Ukraine that has led Hungary to dam Ukraine from participating in certain NATO meetings. And as winter sets in and energy prices soar the voices calling for an early end to the war will grow louder.
But diplomats are projecting confidence.
“Yes, it’s impacting energy prices and I’m not dismissing that as an issue,” said Ireland’s U.N. Ambassador Fergal Mythen. “I can say very strongly that unity of purpose between European countries and the U.S. is not going to diminish. This can be a matter of life and death for Ukraine.”
(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington and Michel Rose in Paris; Writing by Don Durfee; Editing by Alistair Bell)
Copyright 2022 Thomson Reuters.
