President Donald Trump, joined by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Jay Bhattacharya, speaks during a press conference within the Roosevelt Room of the White House on May 12, 2025, in Washington, DC.
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President Donald Trump on Monday moved forward with a plan to lower U.S. drug costs by linking prices to those paid in other developed countries – a proposal he may have a tricky time putting into effect, experts said.
Trump signed a sweeping executive order directing several federal agencies to renew that effort to chop prices, called the “most favored nation” policy. It essentially goals to tie the costs of some medicines within the U.S. to significantly lower ones abroad, or what Trump described as “equalizing” prices.Â
He didn’t disclose which exact medications the order will apply to, but said it’ll affect the industrial market in addition to the general public Medicare and Medicaid programs. That is broader than an identical policy proposal from Trump’s first term, which was ultimately blocked in court after the pharmaceutical industry challenged it.Â
Trump is taking aim at a longstanding issue that past administrations have also tried to confront: U.S. prescription drug prices are two to thrice higher on average than those in other developed nations – and as much as 10 times greater than in certain countries, in keeping with the Rand Corporation, a public policy think tank.
The president claimed the order will help lower drug prices between 59% and 80%, or “I assume even 90%.” But health policy experts said it continues to be unclear how much the policy could reduce prices for patients, how much it’ll affect drugmakers’ profits, which medicines will likely be targeted — and whether Trump may even put the plan into effect in the primary place.
Investors looked as if it would shrug Monday about how much the plan would hit major drugmakers. Shares of Gilead rose 7%, Merck climbed 5%, Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb and Amgen climbed greater than 3% and Eli Lilly rose greater than 2%.
JPMorgan analysts on Monday called the policy “difficult to practically implement” because it will likely require congressional approval and will run into legal challenges from drugmakers. Notably, several Republican lawmakers opposed including a most favored nation provision in the key economic policy bill they plan to pass in the approaching months.
“The road ahead might be muddy,” the analysts wrote in a note.Â
While experts backed the thought of lowering prices, they raised doubts about whether other nations and drugmakers will do what Trump hopes to perform with the order.
“We’re unlikely to get the drug firms to voluntarily decrease their prices, and we’re not going to get the opposite countries to voluntarily increase their prices, right?” said Gerard Anderson, professor of health policy and management on the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.Â
What does Trump’s policy do, and might it work?
Trump’s order takes aim partly at other countries, a lot of which have single-payer health systems with more leverage to barter down drug prices with manufacturers. In contrast, the U.S. has a patchwork of private and non-private insurance and partly relies on middlemen to set prices.Â
The president’s policy directs the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce to fight what the administration called “unreasonable and discriminatory policies” in foreign countries that “unfairly undercut market prices and drive price hikes in america.”
In an announcement on Monday, the pharmaceutical industry’s biggest lobbying group, PhRMA, lauded Trump for taking aim at other nations for what they deemed “not paying their justifiable share.”Â
But other countries’ governments are simply negotiating inside the limits of their national health budgets, not using “unfair” methods like Trump claims, said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of public health law at Georgetown University. He added that they’re securing fair prices for their very own countries, which “has nothing to do with undercutting the U.S.”
It’s unclear what actions the U.S. could take to force other nations to take motion, but Anderson said there’s currently no incentive for them to hike their prices.Â
“They’ve a system that works for them and so they get lower prices. Countries like France and Switzerland are all not going to sit down there and say, ‘Hey, now I need to pay more,'” he said.Â
The pharmaceutical industry would likely wish to to see price hikes in countries inside the European Union before it voluntarily lowers any drug prices within the U.S., JPMorgan analysts said. That makes other pieces of the chief order appear unlikely to come back to pass.
Trump’s order directs the Health and Human Services secretary to ascertain a way for U.S. patients to purchase their drugs directly from manufacturers at “most favored nation” prices, cutting out middlemen. The order mentions “direct-to-consumer purchasing programs,” without further details.
His plan also calls for HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to present drugmakers price reduction targets inside the following 30 days, which is able to open up negotiations with the businesses. If “adequate progress” will not be made toward those goals inside six months of the order being signed, HHS will impose most favored nation pricing on drugs through rulemaking or “other aggressive measures,” in keeping with the order.
But Anderson said it will likely take far longer for the federal government and drugmakers to agree on a price. Under a provision of the Inflation Reduction Act, Medicare and drug manufacturers typically take six months to a 12 months to barter prices.Â
He added, “Why would any drug company ever lower their prices voluntarily?” Anderson noted that the order didn’t provide details on the precise actions the administration could take against drugmakers who don’t agree, so the incentives are unclear.Â
The Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission may also take motion against “anti-competitive actions” that keep prices high within the U.S., White House officials said.Â
“There will likely be an expectation that those prices should come down. After which in the event that they don’t, we will likely be our various policy levers that will be used to force those prices down,” one official said. ‘We absolutely are going to get a greater deal.'”
The order also directs the Food and Drug Administration to think about expanding imports from other developed nations beyond Canada. Trump signed a separate executive order in April directing the FDA to enhance the method by which states can apply to import lower-cost drugs from Canada, amongst other actions intended to lower drug prices.
How and when will the drug policy impact patients?Â
The Trump administration claims that some drug prices will fall by as much as 90% “almost immediately.”
White House officials also said the administration may have a specific concentrate on drugs which have the “largest disparities and largest expenditures,” which could include popular weight reduction and diabetes treatments called GLP-1 drugs.
But experts solid doubts on whether the administration can cut prices significantly, because it’s still unclear which drugs and nations will likely be targeted, and whether other countries and drugmakers will comply.Â
“We do not know the list of countries included,” said Tricia Neuman, executive director for this system on Medicare policy at KFF, a health policy research group. “Their pricing would make an enormous difference in what our prices can be, which could then affect access within the U.S.”
In Anderson’s view, the order as written won’t be effective at lowering drug prices.Â
“It’s an ideal idea to pay international prices, however it’s the way you get to implement it. There are not any details and skill to effectuate it,” he said.Â
Gostin also added that Americans will likely not see lower prices “within the foreseeable future.”Â
Still, AARP, which advocates for older Americans, thanked Trump for issuing the order in an announcement on Monday.
“It’s secure to say that we’re enthusiastic about any attempts to assist bring down prescription drug prices,” said Leigh Purvis, the prescription drug policy principal in AARP’s Public Policy Institute. “This approach is unusually comprehensible to the general public because I believe there is a general understanding that America does pay the very best prescription drug prices on the earth.”
She added that the “devil is in the small print, and that is what we’re looking forward to seeing more of.”
How will it impact the pharmaceutical industry?
The pharmaceutical industry has argued that a “most favored nation” policy will hurt its profits and skill to research and develop latest drugs. Last week, PhRMA even estimated that Trump’s proposal – if applied to the Medicaid program specifically – could cost drugmakers as much as $1 trillion over a decade.Â
But Monday’s executive order appears to be “more of a headline risk” than the sweeping shift for the pharmaceutical industry many had feared, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said in a note on Monday.Â
He pointed to the uncertain path forward for the plan, saying it “might be more rhetoric than actual implementable policy.” Seigerman added that Trump gave the impression to be somewhat sympathetic to U.S. manufacturers, with the president arguing that European nations aren’t supporting drug research and development on account of their lower prices.Â
Anderson said the pharmaceutical industry could also be respiration a “sigh of relief today,” pending further details on what the administration’s retaliatory actions could appear to be.Â
Trump’s order suggests that it’s ultimately voluntary for drugmakers to lower prices and, subsequently, profits, so “he didn’t propose something that’s mandatory and really has teeth here.”
Still, while PhRMA agreed with Trump’s decision to focus on other countries, the group emphasized that “importing foreign prices from socialist countries can be a foul deal for American patients and staff.
“It will mean less treatments and cures and would jeopardize the lots of of billions our member firms are planning to take a position in America – threatening jobs, hurting our economy and making us more reliant on China for revolutionary medicines,” the group said in an announcement.
What could work as a substitute?
Some analysts and experts said Trump could alternatively implement his most favored nation policy through an existing tool to push down drug prices: Medicare drug price negotiations.
It is a key provision of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act that offers Medicare the ability to barter certain prescription drug prices with manufacturers. The federal program is currently in its second ever round of talks with drugmakers.
The Trump administration could use the “most favored nation” price for a given drug because the initial offer to manufacturers at the start of negotiations, Anderson said.
“You would be starting the negotiation at a fair lower cost than they’ve prior to now,” he said, adding that it will not require any help from Congress.
JPMorgan analysts added that “we see a clearer pathway for the administration to implement [the most favored nation policy] at a smaller scale through Medicare IRA price negotiations, where the impact can be limited to a small number of medication” and make the hit to drugmaker profits more gradual.