Former U.S. President Donald Trump addresses The Faith and Freedom Coalition’s 2023 “Road to Majority” conference in Washington, U.S., June 24, 2023.
Tasos Katopodis | Reuters
Some Republican presidential hopefuls are pushing hard only for the possibility to seize the stage of their party’s primary debate next month.
However the impact of the event could also be limited if their top rival, former President Donald Trump, is a no-show.
Trump has repeatedly signaled that he might skip the primary debate, set for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, wondering aloud why he would join the fray just to reveal himself to a barrage of attacks from his competitors. “When you might have an enormous lead, you do not do it,” Trump said in a Fox News interview that aired Sunday. He added that he still hasn’t made up his mind.
“I understand a number of people would love to have him there,” said Saul Anuzis, a Republican strategist and former chair of the Michigan GOP. “If I were a difficult candidate I might definitely need to have him there and have a probability to take some shots at him.”
Trump’s absence would take that probability off the table, and any heat he might take for refusing to confront his rivals is not expected to tug down his lead.
The previous president’s shrug toward the talk underscores his elevated position within the Republican primary and the impact his absence could have on his competitors — especially those struggling to boost money or gain traction within the polls.
Trump noted that “Ronald Reagan didn’t do it.” Reagan skipped a GOP debate in Iowa in 1980, but caught flak for the choice and took part in a later debate within the cycle. Trump himself skipped a primary debate in 2016, opting as an alternative to carry a campaign event nearby.
“You are leading people by 50 and 60 points and also you say, why would you be doing a debate — it’s actually not fair,” Trump said in Sunday’s interview. “Why would you let someone that is at zero, or one or two or three, be popping you with questions?”
It could be a prudent move. National polls of the Republican field consistently show Trump leading his nearest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by double-digit margins. Neither Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden in 2020, nor the 2 criminal indictments he’s fighting on the campaign trail, have appeared to shake his status because the de facto leader of the Republican Party.
“The political reality is that as a candidate who’s to this point out ahead, it really doesn’t make an entire lot of sense for him to place himself within the firing line,” Anuzis said.
Trump’s absence could also take a toll on DeSantis, who would turn into the highest candidate on the talk stage — and thus the goal of the event. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas experienced something of that sort through the 2016 debate that Trump skipped, in response to a post-debate poll of GOP insiders who rated Cruz the loser that night.
Without Trump, who is thought for attracting attention and media rankings, it’s likely that a smaller audience will tune in, in response to Anuzis. That may be a blow to some candidates who may get few other prime-time opportunities to interrupt out from the pack.
What about fundraising?
Republican presidential candidate Miami Mayor Francis Suarez delivers remarks on the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on June 15, 2023 in Simi Valley, California.Â
Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Historically, debates may present a vital fundraising opportunity. Biden’s 2020 campaign, as an example, said it raised nearly $4 million in an hour after a general election debate against Trump.
“A great debate showing all the time helps from a fundraising perspective,” Anuzis said. “Especially for the challengers who’re having a tougher time raising money.”
A few of them are still pushing to land a spot on the talk stage. The Republican National Committee has required that candidates will need to have at the very least 40,000 unique donors and receive at the very least 1% support in certain national polls to qualify.
Former Vice President Mike Pence suggested in a tweet last week that his campaign had yet to succeed in that donor threshold. And former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson told the Associated Press earlier this month that over 5,000 donors have contributed to his campaign.
Other lower-polling candidates have offered perks to spice up their donor engagement. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, for instance, announced he would give $20 gift cards to as much as 50,000 individuals who donated at the very least $1 to his White House bid. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s campaign is raffling off tickets to see soccer legend Lionel Messi’s MLS debut.
Some, though, are merely attempting to hype a possible slugfest.
Chris Christie, the previous Latest Jersey governor who has touted his debate skills and vowed to tug no punches on Trump, predicted Sunday that the ex-president’s “ego” would drive him to take part in the talk.
“I feel he’d be enormously frustrated sitting back in Bedminster and watching what I will do to him on that stage in absentia,” Christie said on ABC News’ “This Week.”
“Come on, Donald, get on the stage and defend your record,” Christie added.
