This mix of 2023 photos shows, from left, former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Charlie Neibergall, Meg Kinnard | AP
Former President Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a serious recent poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa released Monday. The state will hold the primary nominating contest of the 2024 GOP presidential primary race on Jan. 15.
Trump garnered the support of 42% of respondents, while DeSantis got here in second with 19%. Trump’s 23-point lead over DeSantis is the biggest GOP caucus advantage recorded by the poll for the reason that 2000 primary, when George W. Bush notched a 30-point advantage.
After Trump and DeSantis, no other candidate scored double digit support. Scott won 9%; former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley each got here in at 6%; former Latest Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was at 5%; and 4% back Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and political newcomer.
But Trump’s advantage will not be as solid because it appears, based on the joint survey conducted by the Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom. Fully 52% of respondents said that they had not yet decided who they might support, while 40% said they were certain.
With about five months to go before the Iowa caucuses, that uncertainty may very well be key to giving candidates like DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott a gap — especially as Trump’s unprecedented criminal charges in 4 separate cases increasingly dominate his campaign’s message.
When asked who their second alternative can be, a 20% plurality picked DeSantis, followed by Scott at 15% and 12% for Ramaswamy. An additional 29% of respondents said they were actively considering Haley — the identical percentage who said they were actively considering Scott.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents also said they’ve a positive view of Trump, a virtual tie with DeSantis.
The survey, conducted by Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, questioned 406 likely Republican caucusgoers from Aug. 13-17. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
While Trump and DeSantis share an identical overall approval within the state — 63% for Trump and 61% for DeSantis — the Florida governor’s support appears to be much shakier than the previous president’s.
Of the 40% of likely GOP caucusgoers who said that they had made up their minds on who to support, two-thirds picked Trump, versus 31% for DeSantis.
Worse for the governor was the proven fact that while 52% of respondents said they could still resolve to choose another person, it was mostly DeSantis supporters who were uncertain, not supporters of other candidates.
DeSantis has pitched himself as essentially the most electable candidate, and the almost certainly to defeat President Joe Biden, the incumbent Democrat, in a general election. But Iowa respondents said they cared rather more about picking a candidate who mirrors their personal views on issues (65%) than one with the very best probability to win a general election (29%).
The poll was carried out within the midst of Trump’s fourth indictment, the second to allege he illegally conspired to overturn his loss to Biden within the 2020 election. Another polls have found Trump expanding his lead after being criminally charged, as GOP voters largely consider the indictments politically motivated.
The survey results come just two days before the primary Republican primary debate. Trump has said he’ll skip the debates, a move that robs his competitors of a rare probability to attack the frontrunner in a live setting.
