From Windfall College to the Knicks and Kentucky to Louisville, Rick Pitino’s teams have traditionally taken major leaps in his second season.
Windfall reached the Final 4.
Kentucky had an eight-win improvement.
Louisville went from eighth to 3rd within the Big East and the Knicks won the Atlantic Division.
Can St. John’s follow that script?
There’s optimism after a robust offseason — during which Pitino and his staff landed top guards Kadary Richmond (Seton Hall) and Deivon Smith (Utah) through the transfer portal and kept the young core of RJ Luis, Brady Dunlap, Zuby Ejiofor and Simeon Wilcher together — that the Johnnies can break through and return to the predominant draw of the NCAA Tournament for the primary time since 2015.
With summer workouts starting over the past week, The Post spoke to 3 anonymous college coaches and two analysts — John Fanta of Fox and Jon Rothstein of CBS — to interrupt down what, on paper, has the makings of a formidable roster.
Strengths
The backcourt has the potential to be elite. Richmond and Smith led a transfer class ranked first within the country by EvanMiya.com, which uses a formula that includes box stats and advanced metrics to quantify the general impact of players. The 6-foot Smith, a speed merchant tailor-made for Pitino’s uptempo system, set a Pac-12 single-season record with five triple-doubles. Richmond, a giant (6-6) play-making guard who was an All-Big East first team selection, carried Seton Hall to an unexpected fourth-place finish within the Big East and an NIT crown. They’re joined by the sophomore Wilcher, who was a prized top-30 prospect coming out of Roselle Catholic (N.J.) and improved as a freshman because the 12 months went on. All three are capable of making their very own shot.
“In case you have a look at Rick Pitino’s history as a head coach, his best teams have all the time been anchored by ferocious guards who can get after the opponent defensively and that’s the makeup of this team,” Rothstein said. “Now, and so they must exit and prove it, St. John’s is in position to have the very best backcourt within the Big East and potentially have among the best backcourts within the country.”
The group’s one shortcoming could possibly be perimeter shooting. Wilcher is the very best 3-point shooter of the trio, but remains to be an unproven commodity. Smith shot a career-best 40.8 percent from downtown last 12 months, but only attempted 2.5 treys per game. Richmond has never taken greater than 1.8 per game in any of his 4 college seasons. Teams will play off them. But, Rothstein noted, Smith’s and Richmond’s shooting limitations didn’t hinder them last 12 months as they combined to aim 7.9 free throws a season ago. Plus, the 6-7 Dunlap is predicted to take a leap as a court-spacer, and top-50 freshman recruit Jaden Glover of The Patrick School (N.J.) could make shots.
There was some uncertainty how Richmond and Smith would coexist as two lead guards who’re used to dominating the ball. However the coaches expect that to sort itself out, that Pitino could make it work identical to he did at Louisville with Peyton Siva and Russ Smith.
“Anyone that thinks that between Richmond’s skill set and Rick Pitino’s coaching ability they won’t figure it out is fooling themselves,” certainly one of the coaches said.
Versatility is a word that was used rather a lot to explain St. John’s. Richmond’s size and rebounding prowess — he averaged seven boards a season ago — will allow them to play small, with Luis and North Texas transfer Aaron Scott, a capable 3-point shooter and powerful defender, on the 4. The Red Storm may go big because 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu and Ejiofor are able to defending on the perimeter. Pitino has options.
“They’ve more proven guys at this level than they did last 12 months,” the coach said.
Weaknesses
Some questioned the shotmaking, but the larger concern is up front. Iwuchukwu was a big-time prospect entering USC, but has battled health issues and has yet to prove himself at the school level. International forward Ruben Prey is very regarded, but still an unknown. Ejiofor had a robust second half last season, but still only averaged 4.3 points and three.1 rebounds as a sophomore. Replacing the production of Joel Soriano and Chris Ledlum won’t be easy. The duo combined for 23.3 points and 16.4 rebounds. There are potential solutions, but still query marks.
“From that position, St. John’s needs to seek out a approach to get 12 points and 12 rebounds (per game),” Rothstein said.
X Factor
Luis’ first 12 months as a Johnnie was marred by injuries. He missed an prolonged time period on account of a broken hand and shin splints. The latter malady limited his practice time significantly and cut into his potential impact. Still, there have been flashes of immense promise. Within the 15 games by which the multi-talented 6-foot-7 Luis logged at the very least 21 minutes, he averaged 13.1 points and 5.7 rebounds. He was the very best player on the ground within the Big East Tournament quarterfinal rout of Seton Hall, producing 18 points and nine rebounds. Because the season ended, Luis underwent surgery on his shins, and is hopeful of joining summer workouts next month.
“I really like RJ,” one other of the coaches said. “I really like his energy, how hard he plays. He’ll be a mismatch problem for other fours.”
If Luis could be a consistent scorer averaging somewhere within the mid-teens, a 3rd coach said, “that’s a game-changer.”
Projection
All five sources agree that is, at the very least on paper, a top-five team in what shall be a loaded top half of the Big East. It’s an improved roster, all of them agreed, from the group that won 20 games a 12 months ago and was an NCAA Tournament snub. Higher depth, more athleticism, and suited to Pitino’s pressing style.
“Sweet 16. They will win two games within the NCAA Tournament if the whole lot falls into place,” Fanta, the Fox announcer and analyst, said. “Are you actually going to doubt Rick Pitino and say he has two years in a row that don’t go his way? I’m not going to do this. They’ve an NCAA Tournament roster, they’re going to be a preseason top-25 team for me.
“They’ve All-Big East players, and so they have returning players who showed some flashes.”