Russia-Ukraine war updates for June 26, 2023

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported Monday morning that the criminal case against Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin over the attempted mutiny remains to be ongoing.

“The criminal case against Prigozhin has not been terminated, a source within the Prosecutor General’s Office told RIA Novosti,” the agency posted on Telegram, in accordance with a translation.

This contradicts prior reports, citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, which suggested that the criminal investigation into Prigozhin can be closed as a part of the deal that halted the march of Wagner mercenaries toward Moscow.

— Elliot Smith

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address Sunday that the longer Russia’s campaign of aggression lasts, the “more degradation it causes in Russia itself.”

“Considered one of the manifestations of this degradation is that Russian aggression is progressively returning to its home harbor,” Zelenskyy added.

With the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania two weeks away, a Ukrainian presidential delegation met in Copenhagen over the weekend with political advisers to Turkey and India, two countries which have to date remained neutral on the war, together with allies from EU institutions and Japan.

“We’re bringing the implementation of the Peace Formula closer and for this purpose, we involve the widest possible range of partners,” Zelenskyy said within the video posted Sunday.

At a G20 summit in November, the Ukrainian president proposed a 10-point peace plan supported by many Western allies. It includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and security around its key nuclear plants, a whole withdrawal of Russian forces, and accountability for war crimes.

— Elliot Smith

The Russian ruble slid to its lowest point in almost 15 months against the U.S. dollar on Monday morning on the back of the failed Wagner mutiny.

As of around 9:45 a.m. London time, the ruble was trading just under 85 to the dollar, a level last seen at the top of March 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

— Elliot Smith

European foreign affairs ministers are gathering in Luxembourg Monday morning with the most recent events out of Russia dominating their conversations.

“It’s more vital than ever to support Ukraine,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said to the press.

“Because what has happened during this weekend shows that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and its political system,” he said.

The Wagner Group, seen as a non-public military organization in Russia, began a coup on Saturday complaining concerning the country’s defense minister and criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin. The revolt ended soon after that, but it surely exposed the fragilities of Putin inside his own country. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “we’ve not seen the last act.”

“That is an internal affair of Russia,” Sweden’s Foreign Affairs Minister Tobias Billstrom said at his arrival for the meeting in Luxembourg.

“What happens in Russia (…) goes to have an effect on the safety circumstances however the vital thing straight away is to face by Ukraine in its efforts to regain its territorial integrity.”

He added that overall the short-lived rebellion in Russia showed that “it is kind of clear that the war will not be going the way in which Putin wanted it to go.”

Russia’s try to achieve a full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.

— Silvia Amaro

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited his troops in Ukraine, the defense ministry said Monday, making his first public appearance because the weekend mutiny by Wagner mercenaries.

In a post on Telegram, the Ministry of Defense said Shoigu was briefed on progress by the commander of some troops in occupied Ukraine, in accordance with a Google translation.

It indicates that Shoigu stays in charge despite the riot, which Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly called off lower than 24 hours after it began.

Shoigu’s future has been called into query following the events of the weekend, however the Telegram post described him as “head of the Russian military department.”

— Audrey Wan

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Monday announced the top of the emergency counter-terror measures imposed in response to the Wagner’s armed mutiny.

In a press release posted on Telegram, Sobyanin thanked Muscovites for his or her “calmness and understanding.”

— Elliot Smith

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man walking” after leading a botched revolt against Vladimir Putin, in accordance with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.

The weekend’s armed revolt by Prigozhin, a former Putin ally who founded the Wagner private militia group, has been viewed as a rare threat to the Russian president’s 23-year grip on power. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the episode exposed “cracks” within the Kremlin that had not been previously seen.

Prigozhin is “type of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I can be very surprised that he’s still with us in a couple of months’ time.”

The Prigozhin-led revolt was unprecedented as Putin has — until now — been in a position to swiftly quell any occasional unarmed protest. On the weekend, the Wagner mutineers got inside 200 kilometers of the capital of Moscow before their leader made the abrupt announcement to abort the mission.

Read this story for more.

— Clement Tan

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the violent riot by one among President Putin’s longtime allies exposed “cracks” within the regime that “weren’t there before.”

“That is just an added chapter to a really, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia,” Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.

He called Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s direct challenge to Putin “extraordinary” and said Russia’s war in Ukraine has ultimately been a “devastating, strategic failure.”

Blinken expects the U.S. to learn more concerning the intricacies of the deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin, in addition to the eventual fate of the Wagner Group, in the approaching weeks and months.

Read the total story here.

– Elliot Smith

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man walking” after leading a botched revolt against Vladimir Putin, in accordance with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.

The weekend’s armed revolt by Prigozhin, a former Putin ally who founded the Wagner private militia group, has been viewed as a rare threat to the Russian president’s 23-year grip on power. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the episode exposed “cracks” within the Kremlin that had not been previously seen.

Prigozhin is “type of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I can be very surprised that he’s still with us in a couple of months’ time.”

The Prigozhin-led revolt was unprecedented as Putin has — until now — been in a position to swiftly quell any occasional unarmed protest. On the weekend, the Wagner mutineers got inside 200 kilometers of the capital of Moscow before their leader made the abrupt announcement to abort the mission.

Read this story for more.

— Clement Tan

The criminal charges against Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin might be dropped and he’ll go to Belarus, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday, in accordance with Russian state media.

Russian authorities won’t prosecute members of the Wagner that participated within the revolt, and the PMC fighters who refused to take part in Prigozhin’s “campaign” will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, Peskov said.

There might be no latest televised address from Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Peskov said the leader continued to work within the Kremlin all day.

Peskov said the revolt won’t affect the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in any way.

— Ashley Capoot