Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack here while Robbie enjoys some break day.
We’re commencing with some incredibly sad news. On Tuesday, we learned that Blake Hounshell, a former Foreign Policy managing editor, died at age 44. Hounshell, who went on to work as a top editor at Politico and the Latest York Times, led FP to a few National Magazine Awards from 2009 to 2013 and spearheaded our trek into the web age. He’s survived by his wife Sandy and two children. The Latest York Times and Politico each wrote beautiful obituaries to Blake and have jointly arrange a GoFundMe page to support his family.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Russia swaps out its top general in Ukraine (again), Japan has OK’d more Marines to go to Okinawa, and the Kremlin hosts Iran’s top diplomat amid a push for more ballistic missiles.
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Why now?
That was the query that was on the minds of U.S. officials and analysts when in a shock move, Russia’s defense ministry announced on Wednesday that Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, would develop into the general commander of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, demoting the present commander, Sergey Surovikin, to develop into certainly one of his three deputies.
Russia is having its best streak of battlefield luck in months, closing ranks across the Donbas town of Soledar and Bakhmut, a deadly vortex wealthy in salt and gypsum mines, which can help explain the paramilitary Wagner Group’s interest in it. Russia has also succeeded in sucking more Ukrainian troops right into a fight within the Donbas that’s not central to Kyiv’s war goals, draining Ukraine’s manpower after they can least afford it.
“It seems as if the command and control situation has gotten higher,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow within the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. “It’s not a moment where they obviously needed a change.”
Russia also had two possibilities to appoint a top commander like Gerasimov: the primary, in April 2022, when Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov became the top of Russia’s forces in Ukraine after the failure of its initial assault on Kyiv, and the second, in October 2022, after Ukraine’s eastern counteroffensive, after which Surovikin became overall commander.
“You’d think if Gerasimov was going to take charge, it might have happened at a time when the war was in a critical situation for Russia,” Lee added.
But officials and analysts also consider there are internal Kremlin politics at play with the change. As Russia’s unified commander in Ukraine, Surovikin had a robust role that would have upset the centrality of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov, who’re closely allied.
On Wednesday, the British defense ministry’s intelligence arm said the move was prone to anger Russian ultranationalists, who’ve used Gerasimov as a scapegoat for the Kremlin’s poor execution of the war. “This can be a significant development in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach to managing the war,” the agency tweeted. “The deployment of the [Gerasimov] as theatre commander is an indicator of the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing, and a transparent acknowledgement that the campaign is falling in need of Russia’s strategic goals.”
And it’s not clear to former U.S. officials that Russia’s military performance goes to enhance with Gerasimov coming into the fold. “My instinct is that he’s a more polished leader,” said Jim Townsend, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense in the course of the Obama administration. “But I don’t know if he’s polished in all of the unsuitable areas,” suggesting that Gerasimov could also be more wedded to old-school Russian tactics that rely heavily on artillery and cannonfire to suppress their enemies. Russia has begun changing its tactics within the wake of recent defeats, sending more waves of infantry ahead of its armor.
The move may be an indication of an effort inside Russia’s top brass to temper the growing influence of the Wagner Group, which U.S. Defense Department officials consider is advancing at a faster rate than almost any unit within the Russian military fighting in Ukraine. The Wagner Group’s chief, Putin confidante Yevgeny Prigozhin, has taken an outsized public profile, appearing on the front lines in Bakhmut in recent days, consoling the families of fallen Russian troops, and even criticizing the Kremlin’s handling of the war behind the scenes.
Although U.S. officials have been mum concerning the prospects of a possible second Russian mobilization of forces—which Ukraine believes is all but certain to occur in the approaching weeks—Pentagon officials have hinted that Russia is prone to proceed waves of attacks, with the Wagner Group drawing on untrained convicts to make use of in battle.
But former U.S. officials consider that Wagner’s better-than-expected military performance could develop into a political challenge to Putin.
“He’s attempting to stay in power,” Townsend said. “The Wagner Group is becoming an increasing number of and more involved, and Putin is leaning an increasing number of on these guys. And the top of Wagner and his individuals are competing with the military now. And it’s giving Putin probably someone who’s a little bit of a competitor to him.”
U.S. President Joe Biden has renominated a handful of ambassador picks who weren’t confirmed in the course of the last Congress: Ana Escrogima as U.S. ambassador to Oman, Jean Manes as U.S. ambassador to Colombia, Ervin Massinga as U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, Matthew Murray as U.S. senior official for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Yael Lempert as U.S. ambassador to Jordan, Stephanie Syptak-Ramnath as U.S. ambassador to Peru, and Dorothy Shea as deputy U.S. representative to the United Nations.
Hannah Suh is now a policy advisor on the National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific directorate. She previously worked for the Office of the National Cyber Director and WestExec Advisors, which has develop into a clearing house for a lot of Biden administration appointees.
Researcher Peter Salisbury has left the International Crisis Group.
What needs to be high in your radar, if it isn’t already.
Ante up. Japan has formally approved plans for a recent quick response force of U.S. Marines that will probably be based in Okinawa, deepening the ties between the 2 allies near Taiwan.
Under Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan is trying to take a more outsized offensive role after China’s military exercises near Taiwan that coincided with then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island last summer. Japan is within the midst of a military spending boost that may give it the world’s third-biggest military budget behind america and China.
Talking points. How did John Sullivan, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, know that Putin was set on invading Ukraine by the autumn of 2021? Because the Russians were increase troops on the border, Sullivan said they were reading from their notes when asked by U.S. officials concerning the intentions behind the buildup.
“There was no engagement,” Sullivan told FP’s Amy Mackinnon and Robbie Gramer. “I’d raise questions. They’d look down and see where of their notes there was something possibly related to what I had asked, and they might merely repeat that line.”
Sullivan, who left his post in September 2022, also provides fascinating insight into Putin’s health and being forced to run the U.S. Embassy in Moscow with a skeleton crew after Russia expelled lots of of American diplomats.
Decoupling. The Biden administration is pushing for a more targeted and focused executive order limiting U.S. investments in China, Axios reports, with an emphasis on checking transactions related to quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
It’s a part of a plan for america to start imposing harsher regulations on outbound transactions, but inside the administration, officials comparable to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have asked for more time to speak over the plan with allies. The order isn’t prone to come before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China, which is penciled in for February.
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy arrives for a Republican caucus meeting on the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 10. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Today: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meets together with his Canadian counterpart, Justin Trudeau, in Ottawa, Canada, amid a whirlwind tour of the G-7 countries. Kishida is ready to fulfill with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington tomorrow.
Also today, Biden attends former U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter’s memorial service on the Washington National Cathedral. Carter, who was the Pentagon chief from 2015 to 2017, was serving as director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs when he died suddenly in October 2022.
Monday, Jan. 16: Martin Luther King Jr. Day is held in america.
Tuesday, Jan. 17: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is ready to host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Moscow amid rumors of Iran providing ballistic missiles to Russia for the war in Ukraine.
“He told me—I remember this specifically—that I’m into sports just a little bit, that he was a star on the Baruch [College] volleyball team and that they won the league championship. What can I inform you?”
—Nassau County Republican Chair Joseph Cairo said that newly minted Rep. George Santos, who’s facing calls to resign for extensive fabrications of his resume, told him that he won a league volleyball championship at Baruch College. Santos never attended Baruch College.
Lump of coal. Russian diplomats in Washington have been subject to all styles of protests for the reason that Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And activists were also keen on ensuring they got a Christmas gift. To mark Russian Orthodox Christmas last Saturday, a secret Santa left a gift-wrapped washer on the Russian Embassy, mocking Russian troops who looted Ukrainian homes last 12 months by stealing home items.
It’s getting Harry. Prince Harry’s controversial memoir, entitled Spare, is getting the star treatment at British bookstores. Bert’s Books in Swindon has displayed the Duke of Sussex’s controversial book next to the aptly titled Tips on how to Kill Your Family.
