With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
We’ve got fresh data this morning from the brand new POLITICO-Morning Seek the advice of poll that shows the national political landscape shifting more firmly toward the Republican Party.
Twenty days out from Election Day, voters are overwhelmingly focused on the economy and inflation, Republicans are more trusted to handle those issues, and crime beats out abortion as a second-tier issue. In our poll, as in others, the GOP has also gained on the congressional ballot test.
The poll confirms the dramatic shift from the late summer, when the Dobbs decision and declining gas prices strengthened Democrats in races across the country, to today, when the midterms appear to be returning to a more typical referendum on the incumbent president through which the party out of power makes substantial gains.
Two big issues appear to be driving the reversal:
— On abortion, ever for the reason that Kansas referendum defeating an abortion ban, Republicans in tough races have abandoned or downplayed hardline stances and refocused attention on attacking their Democratic opponents as extreme. Neutralizing abortion has allowed many Republicans to lift the salience of crime and immigration. We saw this dynamic repeatedly in the massive Senate and gubernatorial debates this week in Georgia, Ohio, Florida, and elsewhere. The White House has noticed how the Dobbs effect has faded. On Tuesday, JOE BIDEN announced that his first bill to Congress next yr could be one codifying Roe.
— On the economy, recent data have continued to point out that the Fed and the Biden administration have been unsuccessful in taming inflation, while their policy moves have stoked fears of an impending recession. And while gas prices, a each day real-world guage of inflation for many citizens, have fallen modestly in recent days, they continue to be up since mid-September. Biden’s approval rating has been in near-perfect inverse sync with fluctuations in gas prices. (There’s a minus-0.80 correlation coefficient, in keeping with the Washington Post’s Philip Bump.)
The POLITICO-Morning Seek the advice of poll shows:
— The economy and inflation are the highest issues for voters. 81% say the economy will play a “major role” of their vote alternative, and 80% say inflation.
— The opposite issues we tested track with a playing field tilting toward the GOP. 64% of voters cited crime as a “major issue,” while 59% cited abortion, 57% cited gun policy and 55% cited immigration.
— Voters usually tend to trust Republicans in Congress on the economy. Forty-six percent trust Republicans more vs. 39% for Democrats.
— A majority (61%) of voters consider inflation within the U.S. economy is getting worse.
— Republicans have gained on the congressional ballot since last week. The Democratic advantage shifted from 46%-42% to 45%-44%.
Toplines … Crosstabs
NEW ELECTION FORECAST: RACES TILT TOWARD GOP — Steve Shepard, our senior campaigns and elections editor, has just posted his latest election forecast, and ten of 12 races which have modified are moving toward Republicans. Some highlights:
— Out west, two deep blue districts at the moment are tossups: CA-13, which Biden won by 11 points, and OR-6, which Biden won by 14 points. Republicans now have a probability to flip three of Oregon’s six seats.
— Florida continues to slide away from Democrats: “4 House races are moving toward Republicans, driven by two foremost aspects: Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ strength at the highest of the ticket, and the GOP’s continued improvement amongst Latino voters,” Steve writes.
— Democrats are abandoning two races they’d targeted: Republican candidate DERRICK VAN ORDEN, who participated within the Jan. 6, 2021, march on the Capitol, is now prone to represent western Wisconsin. In Arizona, the Dems have given up on defeating Rep. DAVID SCHWEIKERT (R-Ariz.), who represents a district Biden won in 2020.
— Governorships in Massachusetts and Maryland are poised to flip to the Dems: “Each governor’s races are moving from ‘Likely Democratic’ to ‘Solid Democratic,’ as [DONALD] TRUMP-endorsed GOP nominees aren’t mounting credible campaigns,” says Steve.
— Alaska stays a vivid spot for Democrats. “[T]he state’s lone House seat is now rated ‘Lean Democratic’ after now-Rep. MARY PELTOLA’s surprise special-election victory this summer,” in keeping with the brand new forecast.
Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
STATE OF OUR DEMOCRACY — A latest AP/NORC poll out this morning finds only a modest rebound in Americans’ faith within the election system since 2020: “Only about half of Americans have high confidence that votes within the upcoming midterm elections will likely be counted accurately … though that’s an improvement from about 4 in 10 saying that just before the 2020 presidential election. Just 9% of U.S. adults think democracy is working “extremely” or “thoroughly,” while 52% say it’s not working well.” Sixty-eight percent of Republicans say our democracy isn’t working well versus 40% of Democrats, a reversal from two years ago when 32% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats felt that way.
LATER TODAY — Trump is ready to be deposed at Mar-a-Lago within the defamation lawsuit filed by former magazine columnist E. JEAN CARROLL. More from CNN
WELCOME HOME — ELI STOKOLS is returning to POLITICO as a White House reporter and co-author of West Wing Playbook. He most recently was a White House reporter for the L.A. Times and is a WSJ alum. Read the announcement
Neither MITCH McCONNELL nor NANCY PELOSI are known to be fans of Raiders football. (Pelosi is a die-hard 49ers fan, and McConnell is a daily at Louisville Cardinals tailgates.) But they each subscribe to the wisdom of the late, great AL DAVIS: Just win, baby.
A thick skin is a job requirement for congressional leaders, and never just due to other party’s attacks. The character of the job means having members of your individual party publicly criticizing you to win their elections — and also you cutting fat campaign checks in return.
Pelosi quoted Davis on Tuesday to NBC’s ANDREA MITCHELL, who pressed her on the routine calls for brand spanking new leadership amongst younger Democrats. She added: “If that is what you’ve gotten to say to win, fantastic. And we won’t in any way do anything but [be] totally supportive.”
But our Natalie Allison reports this morning that McConnell is taking his forbearance to the acute — keeping a $23 million promoting commitment in place through his affiliated Senate Leadership Fund super PAC to profit GOP Senate candidate DON BOLDUC, who has called for McConnell’s ouster while raising relatively little money for his own campaign against incumbent Democrat MAGGIE HASSAN.
Natalie asked Bolduc this week whether, given SLF’s funding commitment, he planned to revisit his views on McConnell continuing as Senate GOP leader. “I’m not backing off,” he replied, adding: “I’m very appreciative of Senator McConnell’s support, but that’s his job. … We should always expect his support and he should do every part inside his power to assist us win.”
SLF could still cut bait on Bolduc if he fails to point out momentum, Natalie tells Playbook: “If that happens in the following week or two, Bolduc may have to ponder whether falling consistent with the GOP establishment would have saved him. But that wasn’t his brand in the first, and that isn’t the approach he’s taking now.”
BIG PICTURE
ON THE GROUND IN NEVADA — “Nevada’s ‘Reid Machine’ staring down tough test in midterms,” by AP’s Michelle Price: “The party is facing headwinds in all places, dragged down by President Joe Biden’s unpopularity and chronic inflation. And the challenges in Nevada are particularly notable since the election is the primary since [HARRY] REID died last yr, raising questions on the sturdiness of the so-called Reid Machine. Some leading Democrats say the competitive environment is just a reminder that Nevada is a real swing state that the national party can’t take with no consideration.”
CASH DASH — “Mike Bloomberg takes different approach to funding Democrats this yr,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer: “Top Democratic donor MIKE BLOOMBERG, a billionaire former candidate for president, plans to spend greater than $60 million on this yr’s elections, in keeping with his advisers, choosing a lower public profile than he has taken lately.
“Much of his spending, including about $11 million in donations to House Majority PAC, the first outside group supporting Democrats within the battle for control of the House, has not yet been publicly disclosed, while greater than $15 million has been pushed through Democratic-aligned groups reminiscent of Emily’s List, Planned Parenthood and the League of Conservation Voters, the advisers said.”
JUST POSTED —“As Campaign Norms Erode, Even Debates Are Under Debate,” by NYT’s Lisa Lerer and Jazmine Ulloa: “In midterm campaigns across the country, direct political engagement has been falling away, victim to security concerns, pandemic-era workarounds and Republican hostility to the mainstream media.”
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
GETTING FEISTY IN FLORIDA — Republican Sen. MARCO RUBIO and challenger Rep. VAL DEMINGS squared off of their first debate on Tuesday night, where the “word ‘liar’ was tossed out a couple of times, together with loads of other tough language,” the Tallahassee Democrat’s Zac Anderson reports. “Demings often was on the offensive as she tries to unseat a two-term incumbent and shakeup a race where polls show her lagging, in a state that increasingly has trended red. A practiced debater, Rubio deflected on some hot-button issues, reminiscent of abortion, and tried to disregard others as he sought to avoid major missteps in the house stretch.”
THE SLEEPER SENATE RACE — “Why Cheri Beasley could be Democrats’ most underrated Senate candidate,” by Vox’s Nicole Narea
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE
CALLING FOR BACKUP — “Super PAC cavalry starts shoring up House Dem campaign chief amid GOP deluge,” by Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick: “Our Hudson PAC, a gaggle that formed in July to assist Rep. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-N.Y.) in his summertime primary, is the primary Democratic outside spender to leap into his narrowing race against GOP state legislator MICHAEL LAWLER. Maloney’s newly redrawn district within the lower a part of Hudson Valley has quickly grow to be a top GOP goal, with House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY’s aligned super PAC dumping $4 million of broadcast TV ads into the race this week.”
PANHANDLE DISPATCH — “Florida Democrat targeted by DeSantis struggles to remain in Congress,” by Gary Fineout in Blountstown, Fla.: Rep. AL LAWSON, “whose Republican colleagues within the Florida Legislature would joke with him about his never-ending quests to get money for a rural fire department, has staked a part of his campaign on a throwback appeal that stressed how much state and federal money he’s secured for residents through the years. Despite pleas from his fellow members of the Congressional Black Caucus, national Democrats have provided little funding for his campaign” against GOP Rep. NEAL DUNN in a district upended by DeSantis’s controversial redistricting plan.
“Oregon Republican candidate Alek Skarlatos poses with Obama in ‘misleading’ ads,” by the Oregon Capital Chronicle’s Julia Shumway
BATTLE FOR THE STATES
HOW IT’S PLAYING — Republicans are winning the schoolhouse culture wars — just not with November’s moderate general election voters. “Some Democrats have now seized on GOP polling and previously unreported voter research that implies the conservative rush to attack history lessons and library books is failing to attach with a majority of likely general election voters — and will even be alienating some persuadable moderates and independents,” Juan Perez Jr. and Zach Montellaro report this morning.
CAMPAIGN CLEANUP — “Tim Michels suggests he would not implement the 1849 abortion law, but his campaign quickly walked the statement back,” by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck: “‘I won’t ever arrest a health care provider, as they’re saying — I’m an affordable guy,’ [Republican gubernatorial candidate TIM] MICHELS said at a Rotary Club of Milwaukee event on Tuesday, referring to the state’s abortion law that makes it a criminal offense for doctors to perform abortions unless the mother’s life is in danger. ANNA KELLY, a spokeswoman for Michels, later said, ‘The DAs should implement all laws. The governor is an executive. He is not a DA or beat cop arresting anyone.’”
HOT POLLS
— Pennsylvania: Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN leads Republican MEHMET OZ 48% to 46%, per an AARP poll shared exclusively with our colleague Holly Otterbein, who notes that the slim disparity is throughout the margin of error.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
THE WHITE HOUSE
PREPPING FOR PUTIN — Contained in the White House, preparations are already underway for the G-20, which could possibly be probably the most consequential gathering in a generation. The important thing query: Does Biden dare meet Putin head to head? To this point, the reply isn’t any, Jonathan Lemire reports this morning. “It may’t be ruled out that Biden and Putin might cross paths in some unspecified time in the future throughout the November summit, in keeping with officials who note that the 2 men may, in some unspecified time in the future, attend the identical large plenary gathering. But U.S. officials have ruled out a proper meeting and are taking steps to make sure that the American president doesn’t encounter his Russian counterpart in a hallway and even in a leaders’ group photo.”
JOE’S SAFE SPACE — Should you actually need to know what’s on Biden’s mind, best to catch him at a fundraiser, where “the audience is friendly and his guard is down,” WaPo’s Matt Viser observes this morning. He’s recently decried GOP “semi-fascism,” warned of nuclear “Armageddon,” and rather more: “All these colourful remarks were delivered in the comfortable confines of political fundraisers, where cameras usually are not allowed, but reporters with notebooks are. The events, whose frequency has accelerated sharply ahead of the midterm elections, provide the closest thing to unvarnished views from the commander in chief.”
CONGRESS
THE JORDAN YEAR — Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) is poised to grow to be arguably more influential than ever next yr if Republicans flip the House. He would ascend to the highest of the Judiciary Committee and hold continued command of the party’s right flank. Our colleague Jordain Carney asked him what he desires to do with the ability. What he said: “Jordan mapped out ‘4 big moments’ in 2023 where he sees opportunities for Republicans to legislatively fight the political riptide (namely, a Democratic White House and possibly Senate) that’s prone to wash away much of their recently rolled-out Commitment to America agenda: the debt ceiling, surveillance reform, funding the federal government and the farm bill.”
MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT
OH, DEARIE — Judge RAYMOND DEARIE, the special master chosen to review the materials that federal officials seized from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago compound, complained to Trump’s lawyers Tuesday that they’ve not provided enough information for him to properly evaluate Trump’s privilege claims, NYT’s Charlie Savage and Alan Feuer write.
“Judge Dearie encouraged Mr. Trump’s lawyers to offer him a greater sense of why they believed the documents could possibly be lawfully shielded from the Justice Department’s inquiry into whether Mr. Trump unlawfully kept classified records at his estate and obstructed the federal government’s repeated efforts to retrieve them.”
The cash quote: “‘It’s a bit of perplexing as I’m going through the log,’ Judge Dearie said. ‘What’s the expression — “Where’s the meat?” I would like some beef.’”
MORE POLITICS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON — “Has a right-wing movement to flip school boards really landed within the Bay Area?” by the SF Chronicle’s Joshua Sharpe and Sophia Bollag: “The candidates’ connections to Trump and other conservative voices … have caused some parents to fear the trios are a part of a national movement to flip school boards amid conservative backlash to COVID protocols, equal access for transgender students and efforts to make curriculum more inclusive. … However the candidates — those that responded to messages — say they’re falsely accused.”
MOVING ON — “Paul Krekorian voted in as latest L.A. City Council president,” by L.A. Times’ Julia Wick and David Zahniser
HIGH TIMES — “Oklahoma governor sets March election for marijuana query,” by AP’s Sean Murphy
JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH
AT THE OATH KEEPERS TRIAL — JASON DOLAN, a former Marine and Oath Keeper who’s cooperating with DOJ’s investigation into the organization’s actions on Jan. 6, “told a jury Tuesday that he packed his automobile stuffed with weapons and traveled to Washington, D.C., to stop Joe Biden from assuming the presidency ‘by any means mandatory,’” CNN’s Hannah Rabinowitz reports. “He made clear that members of the extremist group intended to try to keep then-President Donald Trump in power by intimidating Congress.”
WAR IN UKRAINE
WHO’S HELPING RUSSIA — “Iran Sends Drone Trainers to Crimea to Aid Russian Military,” by NYT’s Julian Barnes: “The Iranian trainers are operating from a Russian military base in Crimea where lots of the drones have been based since being delivered from Iran. The trainers are from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a branch of the Iranian military designated as a terrorist organization by the USA.”
THE VIEW FROM THE KREMLIN — “Russia’s Top Ukraine Commander Sees Invasion Faltering in South, but Missile Strikes Take Toll on Ukraine,” by WSJ’s Thomas Grove and Yuliya Chernova: “Gen. SERGEI SUROVIKIN, the recently appointed commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, gave a rare pessimistic take of his invading forces’ position, telling state television Tuesday that the situation in Kherson ‘isn’t in any respect easy right away’ and that the priority within the south was preserving civilians and military personnel.”
JUDICIARY SQUARE
BULL DURHAM — Special Counsel JOHN DURHAM’s probe into the genesis of the FBI’s Russia investigation involving Trump “suffered one other high-profile blow Tuesday,” Josh Gerstein writes, “but his disciples see a silver lining within the veteran prosecutor’s checkered courtroom record.” What went down on Tuesday: “After about nine hours of deliberations, a federal jury acquitted Russian policy researcher IGOR DANCHENKO on Tuesday on 4 felony false-statement charges brought as a part of Durham’s probe of misinformation that triggered the FBI probe of former President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign.”
But, but, but: “Durham and his aides used the forum of the recent trials to air evidence of what they suggested was a failure by FBI personnel to pursue leads as they probed the sourcing of the Steele dossier, a compendium of allegations former British intelligence officer CHRISTOPHER STEELE assembled about links between Trump and Russia. Danchenko was Steele’s key source when compiling the dossier.”
THE ECONOMY
WELL-OILED MACHINE — Biden is predicted to announce today the discharge of 15 million barrels of oil from the U.S. strategic reserve in response to OPEC+’s decision to chop oil production, AP’s Josh Boak and Zeke Miller report. Biden may also “say more oil sales are possible this winter, as his administration rushes to be seen as pulling out all of the stops ahead of next month’s midterm elections.”
Context: “The 15 million-barrel release wouldn’t cover even one full day’s use of oil within the U.S., in keeping with the Energy Information Administration.”
FED UP — “The Fed, Staring Down Two Big Selections, Charts an Aggressive Path,” by NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Federal Reserve officials have coalesced around a plan to lift rates of interest by three-quarters of some extent next month as policymakers grow alarmed by the endurance of rapid price increases — and increasingly frightened that inflation is now feeding on itself.”
SILVER LININGS POCKETBOOK — “You may keep extra money from the IRS next yr, because of inflation,” by WaPo’s Jacob Bogage: “Certain parts of the tax code are tied to inflation to forestall rising prices from causing higher taxes. Taxpayers will see the brand new figures reflected in withholding statements on paychecks starting in January, with staff securing more take-home pay.”
MEDIAWATCH
WILD ONE — “FBI Raids Star ABC News Producer’s Home,” by Rolling Stone’s Tatiana Siegel: “Multiple sources aware of the matter say [JAMES GORDON] MEEK was the goal of an FBI raid on the Siena Park apartments, where he had been living on the highest floor for greater than a decade.” Meek has not been charged with any crime following the April 27 raid in Arlington. “But independent observers consider the raid is among the many first — and quite possibly, the primary — to be carried out on a journalist by the Biden administration.”
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION
VOTING IN THE DISTRICT — “D.C. Bills To Allow Noncitizens To Vote, Make Mail Voting Everlasting Head To Mayor Bowser’s Desk,” by DCist’s Martin Austermuhle and Amanda Michelle Gomez
SPORTS BLINK — “Colts owner Jim Irsay says merit to oust owner Daniel Snyder,” by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler: “The … investigations into Washington’s years of alleged workplace misconduct and financial improprieties under Snyder are at the foundation of the difficulty, said Irsay, who stressed that the league ‘potentially’ could have a majority vote from owners to unseat Snyder.”
Val Demingstrolled Herschel Walker.
Commander, the Bidens’ dog, got chippy with the press corps on the White House.
Andrew Batescheered him on.
Joe O’Dea is de facto committed to this ice-in-his-beer bit.
SPOTTED at a ceremony awarding the winners of the Library of Congress’ Lavine/Ken Burns Prize for Film on Tuesday evening: Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden, Ken Burns, Jonathan and Jeannie Lavine and Annette Gordon-Reed. Pic
MEDIA MOVE — Chris Johnson is launching a newsletter, “The Weekly Dystopia,” which is able to give attention to 4 “key principles,” he told us: “1) America is fundamentally a great place; 2) Ideological pluralism is a great thing; 3) Western institutions and values are necessary to uphold and 4) America must have a premier place in global affairs.” Johnson previously was chief political and White House reporter for the Washington Blade.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Kevin Williamson is joining the Competitive Enterprise Institute as author in residence. He’s national correspondent of The Dispatch and is a National Review alum.
TRANSITIONS — Matthew Kulkin is now a partner at WilmerHale. He previously was a partner and co-chair at Steptoe & Johnson and is a CFTC alum. … Wilma Linares is joining Civic Nation as chief financial officer. She was previously managing director of finance and strategy on the American Immigration Council. … Lauren Marshall is now a director at FGS Global. She previously was a legislative director for Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). …
… Chris Estep is joining the Defense Department as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs. He previously was acting comms director for the House Armed Services Committee Democrats. … Roxane Maywalt is joining Eversheds Sutherland as senior counsel. She most recently was senior counsel at Michael Best & Friedrich and is a FERC alum.
WEEKEND WEDDINGS —Avery Mulligan, press secretary for Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), and Kyle Monsees, community engagement coordinator with the International Rescue Committee, got married Saturday in Provincetown, Mass. They met as lifeguards at their neighborhood pool in Chevy Chase and commenced dating in 2013. Pic … One other pic
— Syd Terry, COS for Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Unwell.), and Larkin Parker, comms director for Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), got married on Friday, Oct. 14 on the Riggs Hotel in D.C. The ceremony was officiated by House Chaplain Margaret Kibben. Pic … One other pic … SPOTTED: Rep. Haley Stevens, Rep. JanSchakowsky and Bob Creamer, Alex Hoehn-Saric, Robert Marcus, Tiffany Guarascio, James Adams, Matt Corridoni, Paul Gage, Kelly Nickel, Ned Michalek, Michael Hutton and Lyndon Boozer.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) … Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform … NYT’s Carl Hulse … Amy Walter … Fox News’ Steve Doocy … former RNC Chair Michael Steele … Katie Rayford of Slate … POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney … POLITICO Europe’s Sarah Wheaton … Protocol’s Satchie Snellings … Edelman’s Jeremy Gosbee … Steven Greenhouse … Kevin Keane of the American Beverage Association … Kathryn Fanlund of the Legal Services Corp. … Jay Footlik … Lauren Crawford Shaver of Forbes Tate Partners … Ray Day of the Stagwell Group … Andrea Bernstein … Will Cadigan of CNN … Dave Lapan … Dana Brown Ritter … Dale Brown of the Financial Services Institute … Philip Minardi … Sam Heitner … Kimberly Greenplate of the American Foreign Service Association … Marc Sklar … former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) … Winston Lord … Amy Carter … Shelby Coffey … Yoram Ettinger … Commerce’s Michael Carey … WaPo’s Anthony Faiola … Brandon Morales of Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) office (25) … Hailey Crust
Send Playbookers tricks to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t occur without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
