We’ve got ourselves a fairly fishy line on Friday night.
Western Kentucky (4-1) is a 2.5-point underdog against Delaware (3-1), despite the incontrovertible fact that the Hilltoppers grade out as a greater team across the board.
It’s commonplace to see a pair of weird college football lines each week, but this one definitely stands proud.
Let’s attempt to make sense of what’s occurring in this excellent Conference USA matchup.
Western Kentucky vs. Delaware odds, prediction
The principal reason that the betting market appears to be siding with the Blue Hens is that it’s an honest schedule spot for the favorites.
Not only is that this game being played at Delaware Stadium, but they’re coming off a bye, while Western Kentucky spent last Saturday beating Missouri State in Springfield.
After that, the story of the tape tends to swing back towards the Hilltoppers.
Betting on College Football?
Each of those teams lean on their offense, particularly the passing the sport, to drive the bus.
Delaware ranks forty sixth within the country in yards per play (5.8) and is thirty fifth in total yards per game (422). Per Team Rankings, the Blue Hens generate 0.406 points per play, which is the 62nd-best mark within the country. Not too shabby for a C-USA squad.
Western Kentucky’s numbers are almost a mirror image. The Hilltoppers generate 5.7 yards per play, 419.5 yards per game, and 0.410 points per play.
The Hilltoppers do carry an edge when it comes to ending drives, but every little thing matches up pretty much if you compare the offenses.
That changes if you take a look at the defensive numbers.
While the Blue Hens have struggled to defend the pass, the Hilltoppers have been stout. Western Kentucky owns the Thirteenth-best opponents’ completion percentage and ranks thirty ninth within the country in passing yards allowed per game.
In a coin-flip matchup between two pass-heavy offenses, that ought to be the difference.
The Play: Western Kentucky +120 (FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience within the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to assist punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn beat the market in mainstream and area of interest sports.
