After a tricky yr, Morgan Stanley sees much more downside for Airbnb . Analyst Brian Nowak downgraded the short-term home rental stock to underweight from equal weight. He also slashed his price goal to $80 per share from $110. The brand new goal implies downside of 14% from Tuesday’s closing level of $93.12. Nowak pointed to potentially slowing lively listings growth over the following few years as a key risk for the stock. He noted: “While lively listings have grown at a 12% ’18-’22 [compound annual growth rate], we see this slowing to a 7% ’22-’25 CAGR going forward as a consequence of scale and law of enormous numbers.” “Our supply model combined with reported nights booked enable us to calculate that ABNB is currently running at 35% occupancy in ’22, consistent with ’21 (35%) but up from 32% pre-COVID,” Nowak said. “The underside line is we expect we were previously too optimistic about forward demand; we now reduce our ’23/’24 nights booked by 5%/12%.” Slowing listings also makes Morgan Stanley’s bear case on the stock more likely, the analyst said. He noted that the stock could fall as little as $60 per share, which could be 35.6% below Tuesday’s close. “Our model for decelerating supply speaks to the way it is increasingly essential for ABNB to drive demand growth through higher occupancy and/or more nights available per listing,” Nowak said. “The corporate also has to do that while facing the chance that the following 1.5mn listings (on top of the present 6.2mn) could also be of lower quality, or in less desirable travel locations.” Airbnb shares have been under pressure in 2022, dropping greater than 44%. Last month, the corporate reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, however the stock fell on the back of lackluster revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. Earlier this yr, sources told CNBC that Airbnb was closing its domestic business in China. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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