MLB odds, picks, bets for Saturday

On Saturday afternoon, Clarke Schmidt will make his first MLB start since late May because the Yankees proceed their pursuit of the American League East crown.

Schmidt shall be opposed by Cubs right-hander Javier Assad, who has a solid 3.10 ERA over his last eight outings. 

Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, together with my best bet.

Yankees vs. Cubs odds

Yankees vs. Cubs prediction

Prior to suffering a lat injury, Schmidt had been having fun with a improbable early a part of the season, with an ERA of two.51 and a powerful underlying profile. He had an ERA of three.38 across three rehab starts in Double-A, including a 70-pitch outing on Monday.

If Schmidt can find top form down the stretch, it will be one other meaningful boost to a Yankees rotation that saw Luis Gil throw six strong innings in a wonderful return on Friday.

Schmidt’s arsenal grades out thoroughly, as he holds a 115 Stuff+ rating this season with better-than-average rankings on three pitches.

He had been particularly dominant right before suffering the injury on May 26. In his final five big-league starts, Schmidt pitched to an ERA of 1.82 with an xFIP of three.56. He averaged 10.56 strikeouts per nine innings during that span, with an xBA of .210. 

Nestor Cortes, who has temporarily shifted to the Yankees’ bullpen, is anticipated to enter Saturday’s matchup after Schmidt.

Luke Weaver pitched well within the ninth inning on Friday en path to his first save of the season. It can be interesting to see if he gets one other shot on the vacant closer role in Saturday’s matinee. 

Assad has overachieved his xERA of 4.57 by 1.36 runs this season — nearly the precise margin by which he has overachieved his xERA throughout the whole lot of his MLB profession. 

That makes it somewhat harder to argue that Assad is running with some favorable luck, but there continues to be a powerful case that regression could possibly be coming. He has a K-BB% of just 5.2 for the reason that All-Star break and he has allowed a WHIP of 1.38. He has remained effective by limiting the long ball (0.89 HR/9) and stranding 83.7% of base-runners. 

For the reason that start of last season, Assad has allowed an OPS of just .421 with runners in scoring position — the perfect mark of any starter to pitch greater than 120 innings.

Yankees vs. Cubs pick 

The Yankees should have the ability to field a playoff lineup versus right-handed pitching on this matchup, which suggests Assad is getting a far-stiffer challenge than Schmidt. 

The Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 124 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks first by a reasonably wide margin (Orioles are second at 116). For the reason that All-Star break, they hold a top-ranked wRC+ of 139 against RHP, with a league-leading 37.9% hard-hit rate. 

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Over the identical period, the Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 109 against right-handed pitching. 

Schmidt, Cortes and a powerful Yankee bullpen should mix to supply the Yankees a pitching edge on this matchup. They’ve been improbable on the road at 44-29 this season, and have a much more potent lineup.

At anything higher than -155, I see value backing the Yankees to win on Saturday. 

Pick: Yankees moneyline (-142, FanDuel)