For a team that won 101 games, has an owner willing to finance a mammoth payroll and retain star-level players, the Mets nevertheless face a treacherous winter.
Because that they had a brave and victorious offseason last 12 months and people are near unimaginable to duplicate.
And since they reside in a division wherein their No. 1 nemesis just had 12 months on and off the sphere that was Brave and victorious.
The Mets were eliminated Sunday night and the Braves announced Monday morning that Spencer Strider had change into their latest prime-age, core player to sign what sure reads like a team-friendly long-term extension. It felt like Atlanta punking the Mets over again. The Braves had outdone the Mets behind this core to win the NL East for a fifth straight time and condemn the Mets to a wild-card series against the Padres, which they didn’t survive.
And at a time when the Mets are going to must re-sign and/or restructure so many integral spots on the roster, here were the Braves having Strider join Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson and Austin Riley on the type of deals that can give the Braves not only a solid foundation for years but the sort that can provide the financial flexibility to, say, lavish someone like Jacob deGrom short term in the event that they want.
The Mets can ignore the Braves and just assemble one of the best roster possible. And the last item this column will suggest is that the Mets needs to be in anything near a rebuild. But one thing they shouldn’t ignore is what Atlanta is unquestionably hoping they do. Because I bet the Braves would love for the Mets to get the band back together again by re-signing notably deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo. That group wasn’t ok to beat Atlanta this 12 months when all performed exceptionally and — besides deGrom — were remarkably healthy.
A great rule to follow is to never do what your enemy hopes you do. And if I ran the Braves I could be hoping like heck the Mets tie up as much money and as many roster spots as possible on players who will age into baseball senior citizenry on those contracts. They have already got pacts that do that with Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, James McCann, Max Scherzer and (if as expected they pick up his option) Carlos Carrasco, all under control not less than through next 12 months.
For those who bat roughly .500 on free agency and trades, you might be doing well; .600 is spectacular. The Mets signed five major league free agents last offseason: Canha, Escobar, Marte, Scherzer and Adam Ottavino. They made one significant trade for Bassitt. They went 6-for-6. Now perhaps their trade deadline, notably the acquisition of Darin Ruf, evens out the numbers going into this offseason. But — deep breath for humility — the Mets based on history is not going to do as well this winter as last, whether it’s Billy Eppler again quarterbacking the alternatives or someone corresponding to David Stearns is brought in as team president.
A robust case will be made for re-signing all 4 big free agents. But additionally Bassitt turns 34 in February and tanked his two most significant starts of the season. Diaz just had one of the best relief season in Mets history. Is that replicable? Do you pray should you give Diaz, say, a five-year, $90 million-plus deal that he’ll age like Mariano Rivera on a long-term pact fairly than Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel.
DeGrom, even when he actually desires to still be a Met, turns 35 in June and the power to remain healthy throwing 100 mph fastballs and 93 mph sliders is dubious. For those who, say, signed him for 3 years, what would you determine the Over/Under for regular-season starts he would make in that point? 100? Ninety? Eighty?
Nimmo is such a significant engine on offense that he shall be difficult to switch. However the history of players determining their best health and production of their walk 12 months after which getting paid is just not exactly a one hundred pc glorious one for the teams. And what shall be the associated fee? I talked to Nimmo’s agent, Scott Boras, this week and he was hitting hard on the scarcity of leadoff hitters and center fielders on this marketplace and Nimmo is each. I actually have seen comps to Marte’s four-year, $78 million pact and my hunch is it’s going to be closer to double that.
You’ll hear the expression often around many teams, including the Mets, that they’re willing to do something “inside reason.” Throw out that nonsense. Reason goes on holiday during free agency. I had a lot of people within the industry telling me what they thought, for instance, Kris Bryant was going to get last offseason and let’s just say it was not in the identical universe because the seven years at $182 million with which the Rockies blew away the sphere.
Free agency is in the attention of the beholder and it just takes one beholder to be transfixed. Nobody saw seven years at $153 million coming for Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nimmo has a skill set generally like Ellsbury. And Ellsbury’s contract was signed nine years ago with lots fewer billions within the industry. Plus Ellsbury (and Bryant) had the identical agent as Nimmo (Boras).
To maintain this all together, Steve Cohen could have to authorize a payroll that may climb beyond $340 million. Cohen has been willing to follow the blueprint from when Guggenheim Partners bought the Dodgers (the organization he desires to emulate) wherein the organization spent big to place stars on the sphere, contend and create cover to restock the farm system. But even Cohen can have limits. A significant league source estimated that, at minimum, Cohen will lose $100 million-plus of his own money annually for years to get the operation going as he wants.
Recently on the podcast “The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman,” Cohen told us. “It’s best to give you the option to construct a reasonably good team at $300 million. For those who can’t do this, then that’s an issue.”
But here’s a problem — the compensation for letting these free agents go is just not nearly as good because it once was. The Mets almost definitely will put the qualifying offer on Bassitt, deGrom, Diaz and Nimmo. In the event that they sign elsewhere, the Mets, as a club that’s luxury-tax payer, will receive only a draft pick after the fourth round for every one. It is sweet to have extra lottery tickets, but these usually are not the sorts of picks that vastly speed up improving your farm system.
Also, of that quartet, only Bassitt is prone to sense enough chill in his market — especially from another team that exceeded the luxurious tax in 2022 and would must forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft picks plus $1 million in international pool space — to think about accepting the qualifying offer or signing a “reasonable” extension to remain.
By the way in which, we now have not gotten into three other key matters complicating the Met offseason:
1. Additionally they must redo just about a complete bullpen, not only cope with Diaz. Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor Williams and Mychal Givens (assuming his $8 million option is just not picked up) are free agents.
2. They received positive performances plus health near across the board.
3. Lindor and Pete Alonso played 161 and 160 games and are likely top-10 MVP finishers. Would you bet Scherzer, 38, will fall below or exceed the 23 starts he made in 2022? That Bassitt, Carrasco and Walker made 88 combined starts would have felt unimaginable in spring training. Jeff McNeil won a batting title. Canha, Escobar and Marte (all of their age-33 seasons) combined to play 394 games and be value 8.1 Wins Above Substitute (Fangraphs). Do you think that it’s going to be higher or worse once they are all 34?
Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty are exciting prospects. But (sorry, back to the Braves), Harris and Strider are going to complete 1-2 (in some order) for the NL Rookie of the Yr. Their injection, as much as anything, catapulted the Braves from a sleepy begin to overtaking the Mets. Are Alvarez and Baty going to supply something similar in 2023? Do the Mets really — and that is REALLY — imagine Alvarez can handle the complexities of the trendy catching job and hit to his projections at such a young age? Because having a powerful defensive catcher has perhaps never been more vital.
Also, that is one of the best of it. The Mets system has made strides within the last 12 months. But it surely still is just not the factory of the Braves or Dodgers — the 2 teams that the Mets try to outdo within the NL. The Mets, for instance, can expect no significant pitching impact from their system next 12 months. Which also hurts within the trade market.
So thanks for coming this far to completely appreciate the landscape facing Team Cohen. They still have Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and Scherzer, so it is kind of a start.
But assuming opt-outs by Bassitt, deGrom and Walker, and the picking up of the choices for Carrasco ($14 million) and Daniel Vogelbach ($1.5 million), the Mets (for luxury-tax purposes) have nine players (Scherzer, Lindor, Marte, Canha, Carrasco, Escobar, McCann, Ruf and Vogelbach signed for $148.625 million. MLB Trade Rumors projects the 2 key arbitration-eligible players — Alonso and McNeil — to are available at around $22 million combined. Plus for the luxurious tax, every team shall be charged roughly $16.5 million next 12 months for advantages corresponding to insurance. That puts the Mets at about $187 million.
Perhaps someone corresponding to McCann, Ruf or Vogelbach will be dealt. But that doesn’t really change the mathematics much. The Mets must fill greater than half a roster with, let’s say, $110 million to spend on 2023 payroll.
So for anyone who wants to take a position, say, near $40 million per to actually have a shot of luring Aaron Judge over the Robert F. Kennedy Bridge, take into consideration how much is left to remake a whole pen and 60 percent of a rotation.
It’s why as great as deGrom is, I believe the Cohen Mets will take part in the Wilponian standard of offering simply enough to suggest to fans they tried, but not enough to really sign him. I think deGrom will take something like Scherzer’s three years at $130 million (perhaps more). And — unless Cohen really doesn’t care about having a $340 million-plus payroll — the risk-reward of getting two fragile upper-30s pitchers at $85 million-ish per is just not the method to go.
I might think for $40 million a 12 months the Mets could bring back Diaz and Nimmo. It is frightening long run. But Cohen is willing to spend some now to create time to construct the infrastructure. The return of Diaz not less than provides an important answer to reformulating a bullpen. Nimmo keeps the Mets from gambling on Marte in center and/or plumbing an unattractive center-field market.
This is able to keep a powerful lineup top five with Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso and McNeil. The Mets could hope that as a catcher and/or DH that Alvarez works in to produce needed power; perhaps Baty too. Add Canha and Escobar and — not less than for 2023 — the Mets have general protection here. But I believe they need to try for Matt Carpenter in free agency on a one- or two-year deal in the event that they imagine his swing adjustments are real; then find 400-ish at-bats for him at first, third, right and particularly DH.
I’m unsure without an owner in place that the Angels will deal Shohei Ohtani this offseason, but even in the event that they did — as much as he would solve the Mets’ power bat/starter needs in reuniting along with his old Angels GM Eppler — the shortage of near-ready, high-end pitching prospects would make it difficult for the Mets to land him.
As for the rotation, deGrom and Justin Verlander are the expensive short-term veterans in free agency. Carlos Rodon — talented but oft-injured — is the high-risk, high-reward option.
For the Mets, in the event that they have strong reports on Koudai Senga, they need to pursue that diligently, then also sign a secondary type corresponding to Jose Quintana or Ross Stripling.
Senga, the ace of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, is nearly definitely coming to MLB this offseason and since of his projectable high-end stuff is predicted to be in great demand.
To resolve the shortage of a lefty reliever, how a few one-year deal for a southpaw with closing experience corresponding to Zack Britton (in case your medical people say further faraway from Tommy John surgery he’s a worthy health risk) or Will Smith? The truth is that this is an area wherein the Mets personnel department goes to must prove it might probably find untapped gems — think Boston finding John Schreiber on waivers or Jimmy Herget, designated for task 4 times before emerging because the Angels closer.
There are some areas that even the Cohen Mets are going to must lower your expenses.
For a team that won 101 games, has an owner willing to finance a mammoth payroll and retain star-level players, the Mets nevertheless face a treacherous winter.
Because that they had a brave and victorious offseason last 12 months and people are near unimaginable to duplicate.
And since they reside in a division wherein their No. 1 nemesis just had 12 months on and off the sphere that was Brave and victorious.
The Mets were eliminated Sunday night and the Braves announced Monday morning that Spencer Strider had change into their latest prime-age, core player to sign what sure reads like a team-friendly long-term extension. It felt like Atlanta punking the Mets over again. The Braves had outdone the Mets behind this core to win the NL East for a fifth straight time and condemn the Mets to a wild-card series against the Padres, which they didn’t survive.
And at a time when the Mets are going to must re-sign and/or restructure so many integral spots on the roster, here were the Braves having Strider join Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson and Austin Riley on the type of deals that can give the Braves not only a solid foundation for years but the sort that can provide the financial flexibility to, say, lavish someone like Jacob deGrom short term in the event that they want.
The Mets can ignore the Braves and just assemble one of the best roster possible. And the last item this column will suggest is that the Mets needs to be in anything near a rebuild. But one thing they shouldn’t ignore is what Atlanta is unquestionably hoping they do. Because I bet the Braves would love for the Mets to get the band back together again by re-signing notably deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo. That group wasn’t ok to beat Atlanta this 12 months when all performed exceptionally and — besides deGrom — were remarkably healthy.
A great rule to follow is to never do what your enemy hopes you do. And if I ran the Braves I could be hoping like heck the Mets tie up as much money and as many roster spots as possible on players who will age into baseball senior citizenry on those contracts. They have already got pacts that do that with Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, James McCann, Max Scherzer and (if as expected they pick up his option) Carlos Carrasco, all under control not less than through next 12 months.
For those who bat roughly .500 on free agency and trades, you might be doing well; .600 is spectacular. The Mets signed five major league free agents last offseason: Canha, Escobar, Marte, Scherzer and Adam Ottavino. They made one significant trade for Bassitt. They went 6-for-6. Now perhaps their trade deadline, notably the acquisition of Darin Ruf, evens out the numbers going into this offseason. But — deep breath for humility — the Mets based on history is not going to do as well this winter as last, whether it’s Billy Eppler again quarterbacking the alternatives or someone corresponding to David Stearns is brought in as team president.
A robust case will be made for re-signing all 4 big free agents. But additionally Bassitt turns 34 in February and tanked his two most significant starts of the season. Diaz just had one of the best relief season in Mets history. Is that replicable? Do you pray should you give Diaz, say, a five-year, $90 million-plus deal that he’ll age like Mariano Rivera on a long-term pact fairly than Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel.
DeGrom, even when he actually desires to still be a Met, turns 35 in June and the power to remain healthy throwing 100 mph fastballs and 93 mph sliders is dubious. For those who, say, signed him for 3 years, what would you determine the Over/Under for regular-season starts he would make in that point? 100? Ninety? Eighty?
Nimmo is such a significant engine on offense that he shall be difficult to switch. However the history of players determining their best health and production of their walk 12 months after which getting paid is just not exactly a one hundred pc glorious one for the teams. And what shall be the associated fee? I talked to Nimmo’s agent, Scott Boras, this week and he was hitting hard on the scarcity of leadoff hitters and center fielders on this marketplace and Nimmo is each. I actually have seen comps to Marte’s four-year, $78 million pact and my hunch is it’s going to be closer to double that.
You’ll hear the expression often around many teams, including the Mets, that they’re willing to do something “inside reason.” Throw out that nonsense. Reason goes on holiday during free agency. I had a lot of people within the industry telling me what they thought, for instance, Kris Bryant was going to get last offseason and let’s just say it was not in the identical universe because the seven years at $182 million with which the Rockies blew away the sphere.
Free agency is in the attention of the beholder and it just takes one beholder to be transfixed. Nobody saw seven years at $153 million coming for Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nimmo has a skill set generally like Ellsbury. And Ellsbury’s contract was signed nine years ago with lots fewer billions within the industry. Plus Ellsbury (and Bryant) had the identical agent as Nimmo (Boras).
To maintain this all together, Steve Cohen could have to authorize a payroll that may climb beyond $340 million. Cohen has been willing to follow the blueprint from when Guggenheim Partners bought the Dodgers (the organization he desires to emulate) wherein the organization spent big to place stars on the sphere, contend and create cover to restock the farm system. But even Cohen can have limits. A significant league source estimated that, at minimum, Cohen will lose $100 million-plus of his own money annually for years to get the operation going as he wants.
Recently on the podcast “The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman,” Cohen told us. “It’s best to give you the option to construct a reasonably good team at $300 million. For those who can’t do this, then that’s an issue.”
But here’s a problem — the compensation for letting these free agents go is just not nearly as good because it once was. The Mets almost definitely will put the qualifying offer on Bassitt, deGrom, Diaz and Nimmo. In the event that they sign elsewhere, the Mets, as a club that’s luxury-tax payer, will receive only a draft pick after the fourth round for every one. It is sweet to have extra lottery tickets, but these usually are not the sorts of picks that vastly speed up improving your farm system.
Also, of that quartet, only Bassitt is prone to sense enough chill in his market — especially from another team that exceeded the luxurious tax in 2022 and would must forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft picks plus $1 million in international pool space — to think about accepting the qualifying offer or signing a “reasonable” extension to remain.
By the way in which, we now have not gotten into three other key matters complicating the Met offseason:
1. Additionally they must redo just about a complete bullpen, not only cope with Diaz. Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor Williams and Mychal Givens (assuming his $8 million option is just not picked up) are free agents.
2. They received positive performances plus health near across the board.
3. Lindor and Pete Alonso played 161 and 160 games and are likely top-10 MVP finishers. Would you bet Scherzer, 38, will fall below or exceed the 23 starts he made in 2022? That Bassitt, Carrasco and Walker made 88 combined starts would have felt unimaginable in spring training. Jeff McNeil won a batting title. Canha, Escobar and Marte (all of their age-33 seasons) combined to play 394 games and be value 8.1 Wins Above Substitute (Fangraphs). Do you think that it’s going to be higher or worse once they are all 34?
Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty are exciting prospects. But (sorry, back to the Braves), Harris and Strider are going to complete 1-2 (in some order) for the NL Rookie of the Yr. Their injection, as much as anything, catapulted the Braves from a sleepy begin to overtaking the Mets. Are Alvarez and Baty going to supply something similar in 2023? Do the Mets really — and that is REALLY — imagine Alvarez can handle the complexities of the trendy catching job and hit to his projections at such a young age? Because having a powerful defensive catcher has perhaps never been more vital.
Also, that is one of the best of it. The Mets system has made strides within the last 12 months. But it surely still is just not the factory of the Braves or Dodgers — the 2 teams that the Mets try to outdo within the NL. The Mets, for instance, can expect no significant pitching impact from their system next 12 months. Which also hurts within the trade market.
So thanks for coming this far to completely appreciate the landscape facing Team Cohen. They still have Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and Scherzer, so it is kind of a start.
But assuming opt-outs by Bassitt, deGrom and Walker, and the picking up of the choices for Carrasco ($14 million) and Daniel Vogelbach ($1.5 million), the Mets (for luxury-tax purposes) have nine players (Scherzer, Lindor, Marte, Canha, Carrasco, Escobar, McCann, Ruf and Vogelbach signed for $148.625 million. MLB Trade Rumors projects the 2 key arbitration-eligible players — Alonso and McNeil — to are available at around $22 million combined. Plus for the luxurious tax, every team shall be charged roughly $16.5 million next 12 months for advantages corresponding to insurance. That puts the Mets at about $187 million.
Perhaps someone corresponding to McCann, Ruf or Vogelbach will be dealt. But that doesn’t really change the mathematics much. The Mets must fill greater than half a roster with, let’s say, $110 million to spend on 2023 payroll.
So for anyone who wants to take a position, say, near $40 million per to actually have a shot of luring Aaron Judge over the Robert F. Kennedy Bridge, take into consideration how much is left to remake a whole pen and 60 percent of a rotation.
It’s why as great as deGrom is, I believe the Cohen Mets will take part in the Wilponian standard of offering simply enough to suggest to fans they tried, but not enough to really sign him. I think deGrom will take something like Scherzer’s three years at $130 million (perhaps more). And — unless Cohen really doesn’t care about having a $340 million-plus payroll — the risk-reward of getting two fragile upper-30s pitchers at $85 million-ish per is just not the method to go.
I might think for $40 million a 12 months the Mets could bring back Diaz and Nimmo. It is frightening long run. But Cohen is willing to spend some now to create time to construct the infrastructure. The return of Diaz not less than provides an important answer to reformulating a bullpen. Nimmo keeps the Mets from gambling on Marte in center and/or plumbing an unattractive center-field market.
This is able to keep a powerful lineup top five with Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso and McNeil. The Mets could hope that as a catcher and/or DH that Alvarez works in to produce needed power; perhaps Baty too. Add Canha and Escobar and — not less than for 2023 — the Mets have general protection here. But I believe they need to try for Matt Carpenter in free agency on a one- or two-year deal in the event that they imagine his swing adjustments are real; then find 400-ish at-bats for him at first, third, right and particularly DH.
I’m unsure without an owner in place that the Angels will deal Shohei Ohtani this offseason, but even in the event that they did — as much as he would solve the Mets’ power bat/starter needs in reuniting along with his old Angels GM Eppler — the shortage of near-ready, high-end pitching prospects would make it difficult for the Mets to land him.
As for the rotation, deGrom and Justin Verlander are the expensive short-term veterans in free agency. Carlos Rodon — talented but oft-injured — is the high-risk, high-reward option.
For the Mets, in the event that they have strong reports on Koudai Senga, they need to pursue that diligently, then also sign a secondary type corresponding to Jose Quintana or Ross Stripling.
Senga, the ace of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, is nearly definitely coming to MLB this offseason and since of his projectable high-end stuff is predicted to be in great demand.
To resolve the shortage of a lefty reliever, how a few one-year deal for a southpaw with closing experience corresponding to Zack Britton (in case your medical people say further faraway from Tommy John surgery he’s a worthy health risk) or Will Smith? The truth is that this is an area wherein the Mets personnel department goes to must prove it might probably find untapped gems — think Boston finding John Schreiber on waivers or Jimmy Herget, designated for task 4 times before emerging because the Angels closer.
There are some areas that even the Cohen Mets are going to must lower your expenses.
