PORT ST. LUCIE — I understand the Mets’ current plan. I agree with attempting to win now but not on the expense of clogging future payroll or rosters. Nonetheless, I also think signing Jordan Montgomery can coexist with that plan.
The truth is, I’d argue that signing Montgomery can enhance that plan.
Now, there are two items that I cannot fully know and that Scott Boras, Montgomery’s representative, didn’t help me with during a phone conversation on Tuesday:
1. Is Montgomery willing to play for the Mets?
2. Is his price falling?
Boras represents the 4 best free agents who had remained available into spring training. One, Cody Bellinger, blinked and signed a three-year, $80 million pact to return to the Cubs. That is much lower than Boras/Bellinger were searching for in total. So, in exchange Bellinger received the power to opt out after each the 2024 and 2025 seasons to potentially pursue long-term big dollars again.
Is that this a harbinger of what Boras is willing to do along with his other important free-agent clients — Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell? Again, he wouldn’t reveal his strategy. However it seems much more likely that Snell will go the Bellinger multi-opt-out/short-term-deal route than Montgomery.
It’s believed Montgomery desired to be compared financially to Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million) while the industry was more considering Eduardo Rodriguez (4 years, $80 million). The Mets are definitely monitoring whether Montgomery’s ask falls — $150 million, $140 million, $130 million … but there may be probably a number before the Mets’ comfort level that one other team steps in reminiscent of the Red Sox or Giants, who’re still strongly considering Snell.
David Stearns wouldn’t discuss Montgomery specifically. As a substitute, he said he’d explore “opportunistic” scenarios, stated he doesn’t consider Kodai Senga (shoulder) has a long-term injury and expressed faith within the Mets’ rotation depth/alternatives.
I respect that Stearns is attempting to impose discipline and patience for a franchise that has had too little. That Steve Cohen, despite his wealth, isn’t going to only throw money at an issue to make outside noise stop. But I do think the Mets should stretch to, say, five years at $115 million with an opt-out after three years and see if any club beats that. Here is why:
1. For the reason that Mets are prioritizing the massive picture, let’s begin there. If Sean Manaea has even an excellent 12 months, he’ll opt out of his contract, thus joining Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Adrian Houser in free agency. So the Mets are going to be on the lookout for at the least two starters next offseason, possibly more if kids don’t step up.
In my scenario, the Mets can be paying Montgomery a $23 million annual average, which might mean a further $25.3 million in luxury-tax penalty. The Mets could argue that for that total outlay of nearly $50 million they are going to find good solutions next offseason, when their tax burden also may be lessened with dead money coming off for Max Scherzer and maybe Justin Verlander too.
It is straightforward to spend other people’s money, and Cohen after the faulty investments of 2023 can justifiably suggest sticking with a more measured plan. But …
2. The Mets should not punting on 2024 and demand the goal is to make the playoffs. But I feel they’ve a tricky 1,450-ish inning pitching path this 12 months. Even when Senga returns by early May, the Mets will probably be offering a rotation that hardly guarantees big innings combined with a bullpen currently filled by relievers with no options. It’s a wedding that threatens loads of burnout and churn.
Stearns showed in Milwaukee he can construct strong pens as a season progresses. But Montgomery (ninth most starts from 2020-23) is usually a stabilizer to reduce the burden. There are not any certainties with pitching, but Montgomery is durable, plus Latest York- and playoff-tested. Carlos Mendoza, the Yankees’ former bench coach, effusively lauded Montgomery for his tenacity and the way good a teammate he’s. Yes, he costs more now, but he comes with a lot less doubt for this environment than simply about any starter who will probably be available next offseason — and the way much would you pay for that?
A healthy Senga/Montgomery combo can be a cornerstone to attempt to make the playoffs this 12 months and to construct around going forward.
3. Stearns is devoted to learning about his young pitching and doesn’t wish to block probabilities. But even with Montgomery there are going to be 50 or more starts for Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Jose Butto and eventually Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott and Mike Vasil.
And while the Mets like their pitching group (especially Scott), the remainder of the industry is more tempered. Some like Scott’s upside or that of Blade Tidwell. But mainly the sensation is these are back-end types. That has value but is not going to prevent a go-for-it Mets team starting next offseason from bulking up at the highest of the rotation.
Montgomery won’t be a No. 1 or 2, but he’s a high-end No. 3 with little query about makeup and none about pitching in Latest York or October. I believe if his price does fall, one other team will beat the Mets to all of those qualities. However the Mets should seriously consider being a bit uncomfortable financially now to resolve a today and tomorrow issue.
PORT ST. LUCIE — I understand the Mets’ current plan. I agree with attempting to win now but not on the expense of clogging future payroll or rosters. Nonetheless, I also think signing Jordan Montgomery can coexist with that plan.
The truth is, I’d argue that signing Montgomery can enhance that plan.
Now, there are two items that I cannot fully know and that Scott Boras, Montgomery’s representative, didn’t help me with during a phone conversation on Tuesday:
1. Is Montgomery willing to play for the Mets?
2. Is his price falling?
Boras represents the 4 best free agents who had remained available into spring training. One, Cody Bellinger, blinked and signed a three-year, $80 million pact to return to the Cubs. That is much lower than Boras/Bellinger were searching for in total. So, in exchange Bellinger received the power to opt out after each the 2024 and 2025 seasons to potentially pursue long-term big dollars again.
Is that this a harbinger of what Boras is willing to do along with his other important free-agent clients — Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell? Again, he wouldn’t reveal his strategy. However it seems much more likely that Snell will go the Bellinger multi-opt-out/short-term-deal route than Montgomery.
It’s believed Montgomery desired to be compared financially to Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million) while the industry was more considering Eduardo Rodriguez (4 years, $80 million). The Mets are definitely monitoring whether Montgomery’s ask falls — $150 million, $140 million, $130 million … but there may be probably a number before the Mets’ comfort level that one other team steps in reminiscent of the Red Sox or Giants, who’re still strongly considering Snell.
David Stearns wouldn’t discuss Montgomery specifically. As a substitute, he said he’d explore “opportunistic” scenarios, stated he doesn’t consider Kodai Senga (shoulder) has a long-term injury and expressed faith within the Mets’ rotation depth/alternatives.
I respect that Stearns is attempting to impose discipline and patience for a franchise that has had too little. That Steve Cohen, despite his wealth, isn’t going to only throw money at an issue to make outside noise stop. But I do think the Mets should stretch to, say, five years at $115 million with an opt-out after three years and see if any club beats that. Here is why:
1. For the reason that Mets are prioritizing the massive picture, let’s begin there. If Sean Manaea has even an excellent 12 months, he’ll opt out of his contract, thus joining Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Adrian Houser in free agency. So the Mets are going to be on the lookout for at the least two starters next offseason, possibly more if kids don’t step up.
In my scenario, the Mets can be paying Montgomery a $23 million annual average, which might mean a further $25.3 million in luxury-tax penalty. The Mets could argue that for that total outlay of nearly $50 million they are going to find good solutions next offseason, when their tax burden also may be lessened with dead money coming off for Max Scherzer and maybe Justin Verlander too.
It is straightforward to spend other people’s money, and Cohen after the faulty investments of 2023 can justifiably suggest sticking with a more measured plan. But …
2. The Mets should not punting on 2024 and demand the goal is to make the playoffs. But I feel they’ve a tricky 1,450-ish inning pitching path this 12 months. Even when Senga returns by early May, the Mets will probably be offering a rotation that hardly guarantees big innings combined with a bullpen currently filled by relievers with no options. It’s a wedding that threatens loads of burnout and churn.
Stearns showed in Milwaukee he can construct strong pens as a season progresses. But Montgomery (ninth most starts from 2020-23) is usually a stabilizer to reduce the burden. There are not any certainties with pitching, but Montgomery is durable, plus Latest York- and playoff-tested. Carlos Mendoza, the Yankees’ former bench coach, effusively lauded Montgomery for his tenacity and the way good a teammate he’s. Yes, he costs more now, but he comes with a lot less doubt for this environment than simply about any starter who will probably be available next offseason — and the way much would you pay for that?
A healthy Senga/Montgomery combo can be a cornerstone to attempt to make the playoffs this 12 months and to construct around going forward.
3. Stearns is devoted to learning about his young pitching and doesn’t wish to block probabilities. But even with Montgomery there are going to be 50 or more starts for Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Jose Butto and eventually Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott and Mike Vasil.
And while the Mets like their pitching group (especially Scott), the remainder of the industry is more tempered. Some like Scott’s upside or that of Blade Tidwell. But mainly the sensation is these are back-end types. That has value but is not going to prevent a go-for-it Mets team starting next offseason from bulking up at the highest of the rotation.
Montgomery won’t be a No. 1 or 2, but he’s a high-end No. 3 with little query about makeup and none about pitching in Latest York or October. I believe if his price does fall, one other team will beat the Mets to all of those qualities. However the Mets should seriously consider being a bit uncomfortable financially now to resolve a today and tomorrow issue.
