People line up outside a polling station to forged their votes Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022, in Milwaukee. Early votes are pouring in across the country, and the numbers don’t necessarily look good for Republicans in lots of places. | Morry Gash / AP
While nobody has a crystal ball that may tell of course what is going to occur within the elections next week, one thing is definite. There is not going to be the Republican, or “red,” wave that each the GOP and big sections of the media are hyping.
Early voting across the country has surpassed all previous records, with almost 25 million having already voted—and amongst those votes, the Democrats are well ahead.
Many of the polls released this past weekend were actually good for Democrats, especially the Senate polls.
Pollster and political analyst Simon Rosenberg tweeted this weekend: “Ds had good Senate polls last week. Majority of tracks, incl Likely Voter, had us up. We had good youth, Hispanic polls. But then Rs dumped 5 nat’l tracks on Fri, and flooded states with polls, skewing the averages. Media got played, again.
“Then this am the NYT, after dropping a set of encouraging House polls just a few days ago, drops 4 really encouraging Senate polls. which show Ds in strong position to maintain the Senate, no red wave. This data tracks nat’l polls last week, strong D early vote.
“Within the @nytimes writeup of those encouraging latest Senate polls, @Nate_Cohn even references what has been a transparent campaign by Rs to game the polling averages within the battlegrounds.”
Much more encouraging is that the Democrats are leading in a Recent Mexico GOP-held Republican seat and well ahead in a Democratic-held seat. Amongst Latino voters polled within the state, the Democrats are leading 69 to 29%, a 40-point lead. Last week, Republicans were talking a few “red wave” amongst Latino voters there. The underside line is that there simply isn’t any “red wave” about rolling over the Southwest.
The narrative that the Republicans are ahead serves one other nefarious plan the GOP has. Their intent is to say, in the event that they lose, that the polls had shown them ahead so due to this fact the election is a stolen election. That narrative began with Trump and might be expected to be continued by the GOP. Their story is: If we win, we win, if we lose it’s since it was stolen.
“As we once more dig ourselves out from false GOP narratives,” Rosenberg tweets, “we now have to be open to: – positive D polling nationally, and in places like IA, OH, TX – significance of strong D early vote – Hispanic, youth vote promising for Ds – ignoring all GOP pundits.”
If the polling narrative being peddled by Republicans and picked up by the media is fake, and also you take into consideration a probable influx of newly registered voters (with youth expected to end up in large numbers on Election Day), then the fact may very well be that Democrats are literally as many as five points ahead of where the polls say they’re.
Democrats have exceeded all expectations in recent elections. Turnout is the important thing, not the polls. While anything is feasible, a sweeping victory that keeps the Dems in command of each houses of Congress is as much a possibility as anything—if there may be a full turnout by Democratic voters and independents and even some Republicans committed to the fight for democracy.
This isn’t a horserace between two parties, because the media and Steve Kornacki on MSNBC wish to pretend. It’s a fight for the survival of democracy, and the company media’s coverage of it as whether it is nothing greater than a horse race is itself an attack on democracy.
Vote-suppressing narratives ought to be ignored. It is smart when Rosenberg tweets:
“Media must course correct now, understand what’s happened. @SteveKornacki has to stop using Real Clear Politics. It’s clearly a GOP propaganda tool.”
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